Thunderstorm ceiling visibility climatology
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Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology. Mary-Beth Schreck , L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook. Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies. BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow

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Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology

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Thunderstorm ceiling visibility climatology

Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology

Mary-Beth Schreck, L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook


Aviation forecast climatology studies

Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies

  • BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds

  • Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow

  • Thunderstorm Climatologies in Various Forms

  • Fog Climatologies

  • Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Thunderstorms

    • Verification Suffers in Summer


Thunderstorm ceiling visibility climatology

Goal

  • Since convective season is when verification suffers (cig/vsby):

    Give forecasters some probabilities of occurrence based on climatology


Process and results

Process and Results

  • For the 30 year period ending 2006, found all observations with TS for April – August for KRSL, KSLN, KICT, KCNU

  • From these, found # of occurrences (hours) for each station for the following visibility categories (SM):

    • <0.5

    • 0.5 – <1.0

    • 1.0 - <2.0

    • 2.0 - <3.0

    • 3.0 – 5.0

    • >5.0

  • Found % of each category (i.e. How many times does each occur) as % of total of all TSRA Fog obs

    • These were done for each station for each month


Process and results1

Process and Results


Process and results2

Process and Results


Process and results3

Process and Results


Process and results4

Process and Results


Process and results5

Process and Results


Process and results6

Process and Results


Process and results7

Process and Results

  • At this point, we have isolated TS obs that contain a MVFR or lower visibility. Using these data we then determined how many of these contained a MVFR or lower ceiling.

    • These were plotted as a percentage of the total number of TS obs w/ MVFR vsby (i.e. with a ceiling)


Process and results8

Process and Results


Process and results9

Process and Results

  • Out of these (the ceilings that are below 3000 ft.):

    • Found maximum, minimum, 1st and 3rd quartiles for each visibility category by station by month.

  • Plotted results as “box and whiskers” plot


Process and results10

Process and Results


Process and results11

Process and Results


Process and results12

Process and Results


Process and results13

Process and Results


Process and results14

Process and Results


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Visibilities gradually increased through the season

    • By July: 75-80% of TS obs had visibilities >5SM.

  • TS w/ MVFR or lower visibilities that contained a MVFR ceiling also decreased through the season.

  • By July, it was a statistically “rare” event to have MVFR ceiling and visibility with a thunderstorm.


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