Multicriteria Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Marine Sites

1. Multicriteria Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Marine Sites Yanlai Zhao, Michael Sutherland, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station

2. Outline • Methodology • GIS Processing • Yield Valuation • Multicriteria analysis using AHP • Expert Choice Analysis

3. An Aquaculture Case Study

4. Participants’ Perspectives from Pairwise Comparisons Goal Resources, Habitat, Effluent, Activities Herring, Scallops, Lobster, Urchins Salt Marshes, Rockweed Chemicals Weirs, Traps, Drags, Recreation Site Evaluation Methodology and Model Summary Marine Site Components Multicriteria Analysis (Goal Hierarchy) Site Options: GIS Evaluations (participant independent) as function of the spatial-temporal inventory

5. Lobster Herring: Day/Night Habitat Scallops Rockweed Effluent Urchins Salt Marshes Chemical A Benthic Structures Current Flow Chemical B Chemical C An Aquaculture Case Study: Ecosystem Components Socioeconomic Activities Biological/Ecosystem Resources Herring Weirs Scallop urchin drags Lobster traps Fish Farm Sites Recreation

7. Spatial overlay process Yield valuations per dataset for entire study area Pair-wise processing of component data Yield valuation for layer a + layer b Yield valuation for layer a + layer c Yield valuation for layer b + layer c Overall yield valuation of selected area of interest for use in decision support Estimation of Cumulative Effects Select area of interest Study area spatial and thematic datasets +

10. Yield Evaluation of Overlapping Components B A AB ABC C BC AC pairwise overlapping Yield A => Yield A + Yield AB + Yield AC

12. Select area of interest Study area spatial and thematic datasets + Spatial overlay process Yield valuations per dataset for entire study area Pair-wise processing of component data Yield valuation for layer a + layer b Yield valuation for layer a + layer c Yield valuation for layer b + layer c Overall yield valuation of selected area of interest for use in decision support Estimation of Cumulative Effects

14. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Construction of the hierarchy model • Pairwise comparison • Synthesis of the priorities and ranking of the alternatives • Expert Choice 11 Group Decisions (EC11) AHP computer implementation software

15. Hierarchical problem formulation: Participant dependent/Site independent Level 1 Goal Ecosystem Goal Level 2 components Resources Habitat Effluents Activities Level 3 Sub-Components R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 H1 H2 H3 H4 A5 C1 C2 C3 A1 A2 A3 A4 Level 4 Alternatives Alternative 1 Alternative 2

16. A Hierarchical Model With 18 Subcomponents

17. 5 Participant Groups • Local Communities • Federal Scientists • Industrial Organizations • Non-governmental Organizations • Provincial Governments

18. Participants’ Table

19. Attributed weights of the 5 participants on the 4 components: R, H, E and A (Resources, Habitat, Effluents and Activities)

20. Combined result A2 A1

21. Sensitivity Analysis by Software

22. Ranked Results of Selected Area by Different Participants

23. Conclusions-to-date • Address conflicts by accepting and exposing them • Develop measurable indicators of impacts • Evaluate importance trade-offs (pairwise comparisons) among different participants • Search for common ground via sensitivity analysis on data and hierarchy weights • Results provide decision support framework for multiple participants in an uncertain, complex environment • DEA ranking methods under review