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Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling

Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling. Topics Covered. Reminder of MICS study Progress related to RAINS-Asia activities What has taken place since last meeting Emerging Activities. How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?.

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Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling

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  1. Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling Topics Covered • Reminder of MICS study • Progress related to RAINS-Asia activities • What has taken place since last meeting • Emerging Activities

  2. How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? • The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison • of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in • EastAsia Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

  3. Participant(s) Organization Model name Model type Main model focus S.-B. Kim, T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea) YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.-Sulfur Acid Dep. Model) 3D Eulerian Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) CRIEPI trajectory model Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation H. Hayami, O. Hertel, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark) ACDEP ASIA Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation I. Uno, E.S. Jang Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan) RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami Osaka Prefecture University (Japan) OPU-Model (Osaka Prefecture Univ.) 3D Eulerian Long-term deposition S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa STEM 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term studies G. Calori, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa ATMOS-2 Lagrangian multi-layer Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships. M. Engardt Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute MATCH 3D Eulerian Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

  4. Comparison with monitoring data for the 11-20 January period.

  5. Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

  6. Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Inter-model Variability

  7. How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? • Need to assess inter-annual variability.

  8. Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Interannual Variability (25-yrs) Journal Global Environmental Engineering, 2002

  9. Transboundary Pollution Issues Contunue to be of Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

  10. Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and 2000. ES&T, Dec., 2002

  11. Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than Changes in Emissions! Is there climate feedback link?

  12. Passive Sampler Phase II Study Completed Passive Sampler Network – one way to increase coverage and participation

  13. SO2 Results – Annual Averages

  14. NH3 Results – Annual Averages

  15. O3 Results – Annual Averages Atmos. Env., in press, 2003

  16. Long-range transport: Northern China  Korea  Japan  North America (?!) Intercontinental Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx with the involvement of CO and CH4 Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg Aerosols, including BC, OC Regional Air Pollution Issues

  17. ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA) Spring 2001 Experiments NASA/GTE DC-8

  18. Comparing Modeled and Measured Ratios We extract all points associated with a specified city and plot measured ratios and plot modeled ratios.

  19. Comparison of Modeled and Observed Results from China’s Mega Cities

  20. Urban Photochemistry NOx-VOC Sensitivity to O3 Production Less than 2 day old plumes VOC sensitive Model results along the flight path Megacity points from back trajectories Loss(N)/(Loss(N)+Loss(R)) NOx sensitive Model NOx (ppbv) Klienman et al., 2000

  21. Results from Trace-P Intercomparison Study

  22. The Importance of Fossil, Biofuels and Open Burning Varies by Region

  23. Using Measurements and Model – We Estimate Contributions of Fossil, Biofuel and Open Burning Sources

  24. Ron Brown –Ace-Asia: Note differences between surface and aloft

  25. Asian Brown Cloud – A New UNEP Study

  26. Where do we go from here?Example of Use of 3-D CFORS modeling system at TRACE-P Information Day in Hong Kong

  27. Considerations for Future MICS Studies • Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models? • Nitrate, NH3 & longer-term have been identified as important next steps • I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, BC/OC, AOD – real need here as removal processes not well understood, big differences emerge • and even extending to ozone.

  28. Considerations for Future MICS Studies Many source receptor like problems remain: • Region to region • Continent to continent • Source contribution Another related direction is to study connection between what’s observed at the surface and what is in the column above it. How are results dependent on the Met products?

  29. Upcoming Activities • ASAAQ Modeling workshop • NATO/ITM • ABC Study • IGAC/CAD • Others

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