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Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems. Detlef Sprinz PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Overview. Goals Options Conclusions. Goals. Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to provide a framework for the analysis of non-trivial decisions among multiple actors

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remarks on a political modeling strategy for social systems

Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems

Detlef Sprinz

PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

overview
Overview
  • Goals
  • Options
  • Conclusions
goals
Goals
  • Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to
    • provide a framework for the analysis of non-trivial decisions
    • among multiple actors
    • on various levels of analysis or aggregation
    • to replicate past decisions and
    • explore the likely outcomes of major decisions for the future
options
Options
  • Basic Options
    • case study
    • statistical analysis
    • (cooperative and non-cooperative) game theory
    • optimization tools (incl. CBA)
    • simulation
      • form of quasi-experimentation
options1
Options
  • Example: Political Simulation Model of Bueno de Mesquita
  • Assumptions
    • Rationality of Actors
      • competing actors
      • maximize expected utility under limited time horizon
      • “voting” on issues
      • no level of analysis problem
    • Ability to Provide Input Data
options2
Options
  • Goal: Decision-Making
    • offers and counteroffers
    • “produce” winning coalitions (if possible) or “fabricate” majorities
  • Outcome of Vote
    • determined by
      • median voter theorem
      • veto player
    • fall back: status quo
options3
Options
  • Inputs by Player
    • general power or influence (resources) of each actor
    • stated policy position
    • salience (priority) of each actors
  • Simulation Terminates When
    • expected benefits of further negotiations < expected benefits of further negotiations
    • discounting the outcomes over time
options4
Options
  • Advantage of BdM Policy Forecaster
    • utilizes case experience similar to case study analyst in a fully structured way
    • provides forecasts and simple dynamic of decision-Making
    • rigorous tool rather than guesstimate
      • accuracy is imperfect (ca. 90% correct predictions)
    • permits sensitivity analyses
options5
Options
  • Some Challenges & Limitations
    • lack of simultaneously including related agenda items (problem of uni-dimensional political space)
    • high-quality data inputs
      • not easily available even for many European countries
options6
Options
  • How to Use it for Social Systems I
    • context of climate change
    • three rounds of simulations
      • Germany
      • European Union
      • global
    • replications of some decisions where we know the outcome
    • predictions about some decisions where we do not yet know the outcome (e.g., post-Kyoto)
options7
Options
  • How to Use it for Social Systems II
    • beyond climate change
    • in context of European Climate Forum
      • with select target groups (self-selected)
      • replication
      • short-term forecasting (easy “verification”) & learning
      • longer-term forecasts
conclusions
Conclusions
  • A Proposed Sequence of Activities
    • build a backbone at PIK incl. endowment
    • review other options in the family of simulation models
    • outreach to a limited set of relevant inter/national institutions
    • engage a small set of internationally renowned scholars
      • Bueno de Mesquita, Jacobson et al.
      • Underdal, CICERO et al.
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