Remarks on a political modeling strategy for social systems
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 12

Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 34 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems. Detlef Sprinz PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Overview. Goals Options Conclusions. Goals. Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to provide a framework for the analysis of non-trivial decisions among multiple actors

Download Presentation

Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Remarks on a political modeling strategy for social systems

Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems

Detlef Sprinz

PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research


Overview

Overview

  • Goals

  • Options

  • Conclusions


Goals

Goals

  • Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to

    • provide a framework for the analysis of non-trivial decisions

    • among multiple actors

    • on various levels of analysis or aggregation

    • to replicate past decisions and

    • explore the likely outcomes of major decisions for the future


Options

Options

  • Basic Options

    • case study

    • statistical analysis

    • (cooperative and non-cooperative) game theory

    • optimization tools (incl. CBA)

    • simulation

      • form of quasi-experimentation


Options1

Options

  • Example: Political Simulation Model of Bueno de Mesquita

  • Assumptions

    • Rationality of Actors

      • competing actors

      • maximize expected utility under limited time horizon

      • “voting” on issues

      • no level of analysis problem

    • Ability to Provide Input Data


Options2

Options

  • Goal: Decision-Making

    • offers and counteroffers

    • “produce” winning coalitions (if possible) or “fabricate” majorities

  • Outcome of Vote

    • determined by

      • median voter theorem

      • veto player

    • fall back: status quo


Options3

Options

  • Inputs by Player

    • general power or influence (resources) of each actor

    • stated policy position

    • salience (priority) of each actors

  • Simulation Terminates When

    • expected benefits of further negotiations < expected benefits of further negotiations

    • discounting the outcomes over time


Options4

Options

  • Advantage of BdM Policy Forecaster

    • utilizes case experience similar to case study analyst in a fully structured way

    • provides forecasts and simple dynamic of decision-Making

    • rigorous tool rather than guesstimate

      • accuracy is imperfect (ca. 90% correct predictions)

    • permits sensitivity analyses


Options5

Options

  • Some Challenges & Limitations

    • lack of simultaneously including related agenda items (problem of uni-dimensional political space)

    • high-quality data inputs

      • not easily available even for many European countries


Options6

Options

  • How to Use it for Social Systems I

    • context of climate change

    • three rounds of simulations

      • Germany

      • European Union

      • global

    • replications of some decisions where we know the outcome

    • predictions about some decisions where we do not yet know the outcome (e.g., post-Kyoto)


Options7

Options

  • How to Use it for Social Systems II

    • beyond climate change

    • in context of European Climate Forum

      • with select target groups (self-selected)

      • replication

      • short-term forecasting (easy “verification”) & learning

      • longer-term forecasts


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • A Proposed Sequence of Activities

    • build a backbone at PIK incl. endowment

    • review other options in the family of simulation models

    • outreach to a limited set of relevant inter/national institutions

    • engage a small set of internationally renowned scholars

      • Bueno de Mesquita, Jacobson et al.

      • Underdal, CICERO et al.


  • Login