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Political Participation and Elections

Political Participation and Elections. Voting in America. Suffrage Suffrage or “franchise” is the right to vote. Voting in America. White Males Colonies and States Universal White Male Suffrage Property or Tax Requirement Universal White Male Suffrage by Civil War in national elections

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Political Participation and Elections

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  1. Political Participation and Elections

  2. Voting in America • Suffrage • Suffrage or “franchise” is the right to vote

  3. Voting in America • White Males • Colonies and States • Universal White Male Suffrage • Property or Tax Requirement • Universal White Male Suffrage by Civil War in national elections • State and Local Governments retained property requirement

  4. Voting in America • African American Males • 15th Amendment • The right of citizens of the US to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the US or any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude • Southern States • Poll Tax • Literacy Test • Grandfather Clause • White Primaries • Resistance • Voter Registration • Voting Rights March

  5. Voting in America • Voting Rights • White Primaries declared unconstitutional between 1923 and 1944 (Smith v. Allright) • Civil Rights Act of 1964 • Literacy at 6th Grade • Voting Rights Act of 1965 • US Attorney General granted authority to stop discriminatory voting practices • Gerrymandering against racial groups • Gerrymandering for racial groups • Banned discriminatory voting practices • 24th Amendment • Abolished poll tax national elections • US Supreme Court Abolished poll tax in state elections • Harper v. Va. Board of Elections • Texas v. US

  6. Voting in America • Women • 19th Amendment (1920) • The right of citizens of the US shall not be denied or abridged by the US or any State on account of sex • 18-21 Year Olds • 26th Amendment (1971) • The right of US citizens, who are 18 years or older to vote shall not be denied by the US or any State on account of age

  7. Voter Turnout • Presidential Election • 50 to 60% • Congressional/Mid-Term • 30 to 40% • State and Local • 20 to 30% • Runoffs and Special • Less than 10% • European Elections • 80 to 90 %

  8. Voter Turnout • Why Higher in Europe? • Party Strength • Mandatory Voting Laws • National Holiday • Shorter Campaigns • Fewer Elections • Proportional • More Parties Win • Election Matters

  9. Voter Turnout • Factors for Low Turnout • Rational Voter Model • Cost outweigh Benefit • Psychological Benefits outweighs some Costs • Ethic of Voting • Patriotism • Sense of Duty • Democratic • Voter Registration • 30 Days Prior to Election • Prevent Voter Fraud • Depresses turnout for low income, low education and minorities • Simplify Registration • Motor Voter • Postcard • Jury Duty • Lack of Competition • Political Alienation • Lack of Interest

  10. Voter Turnout • Who Votes? • High Education • High Income • White Collar/Professional • Older Americans • Race controlled for education is not a factor • Gender is no longer a factor

  11. Elections and Democracy • Purpose of Elections • Opportunity for Opposition • Orderly Transfer of Power • Reinforce Legitimacy • Facilitate Popular Influence • Promote Leadership Accountability • Mandate Election • A perception of overwhelming support from the people for the candidates policies and programs • When is there a Mandate? • Clear Policy Alternatives • Voters Cast Ballots Based on Differences • Election Results Provide Clear Winner • Elected Officials Bound by Promises

  12. Elections and Democracy • Does Obama Have a Mandate? • Candidates ran centrist campaign so no real policy differences • Both promised tax cuts • Both proposed health care plan • Voters cast ballot for other “feel good” reasons • Hope and Change • Close Popular Vote • 53% for Obama to 46% for McCain • Obama Not Bound by Campaign Promises nor Does He Have Power to Enact Unilaterally • Congress is the legislative body • Pelosi and Reid control House and Senate • Does Congress Have a Mandate? • Candidates run local races and rarely appeal to the platform

  13. Election Process in the US • Nomination Process • Primary • Closed-Declare Party • Open-Vote in Either Primary • Runoff-If no 51% winner • General Election • Presidential • Every four years • Congressional or Mid-Term • Every two years with Mid-Term or Off-Year between Presidential Elections • President’s party generally loses seats • Recall Election • Election to Remove Elected Officials • California recall of Davis and election of Schwarzenegger • Criteria for Winning • Absolute Majority-50% plus 1 • Used in Primary • Plurality-One More vote • Used in General Election • Proportional—seats based on vote %

  14. Election Process in the US • Congressional and Legislative Districts • Apportionment following decennial census • State Legislatures draw boundaries • Partisan gerrymandering • Republicans control Texas Legislature and redrew the boundaries post • One Person One Vote • Racial Gerrymandering declared unconstitutional • Ballot • Neutral Ballot • Allows Split or Straight Ticket • Coattail Effect • Voting Method Varies by State • Paper (Mail in Oregon) • Lever • Punch Card (Butterfly Ballot) • Electronic • Optical Scan

  15. The Electoral College • 538 Electoral Votes • Each state delegation equal to House and Senate members • DC has three electors • Electors chosen by state party activists from party activists • Voters cast ballot for electors “pledged” to vote for candidate • Not Bound to Vote as Pledged • Occasionally defect within Party • Winner Take All • Except for Maine and Nebraska • 270 Electoral Votes to Win • House Decides if No Winner • One State One Vote • 1800 with Jefferson and Burr • 1824 with JQ Adams and Jackson • Electoral Winner/Popular Loser • 1876 Hayes • 1888 Harrison • 2000 Bush

  16. Political Candidates • Who Becomes a Candidate? • Power and Ambition • Constitutional Requirements • President • 35 years of age • 14 year resident • Natural Born US Citizen • Senate • State Resident • 30 years of age • Citizen for 9 years • House • State Resident • 25 years of age • Citizen for 7 years • Personal Characteristics • Historical Characteristics • White Anglo-Saxon • Protestant • Attorneys/Business • Incumbents

  17. Incumbents • How Successful? • House incumbents reelected 90-95% • Senate incumbents reelected 75-95% • Congressional Approval Rate 18-30% • Reasons for Success • Home Style Politics • Media Attention • Franking • Casework • Pork Barrel Projects/ Earmarks • Public Relations • Campaign Finances • Out raise challengers • PACS favor incumbents

  18. Campaign Strategies • Modern Campaigns dominated by • Political Consultants • Obama: Axelrod and Plouffe • Public Opinion/Polling • Media • Negative Ads • Swift Boat • Values • Family Values • Issues • Health Care • Economy • Tax Relief • Avoid the Flip Flop • Sound Bites and Photo Ops • Letterman and Leno • Clinton on MTV • Debate Performance

  19. Money in Elections • Campaign Financing • Over 50% for Media • Polling, Staffing, Travel • Fundraising • Mass Mail (RNC, DNC) • Parties less important as Candidates are increasingly self-funded • Federal Elections Commission • Create in 1974 • Enforces Campaign Contribution Limits • Requires Disclosure of Spending • Palin Shopping Spree • Individual Limits • $2100 per candidate • PAC Limits • $5000 per candidate • Presidential Matching Funds • Funded by $3 Tax Form Checkoff • Must agree to limits • McCain accepted matching funds • Obama opted out in 2008

  20. Money in Elections

  21. Money in Elections • Sources of Funds • Campaign Committee • Individual Donations • Loans to Campaign • Party • DNC or RNC • Congressional Committees • 527 Groups • MoveOn • Swift Boat Vets • PACs • Labor Unions and Environmental Groups Donate to Democrats • Business and Trade Groups donate to incumbents • Why Donate? • Access to Policymakers • Assistance or Influence • Campaign Finance Reform • McCain Feingold

  22. The Presidential Campaign • Identifying the Candidates • Media • Identifies frontrunners as with Clinton in 2008 and Palin in 2012 • Financing • Must have funds to run viable campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire • Support of Party Activists • Clinton in 2008 • Palin in 2012 • Grassroots Mobilization • Dean in 2004 • Obama in 2008

  23. The Presidential Campaign • Early Stops • Stops in Iowa and New Hampshire • Key Party Functions • GOPAC • Caucuses and Primaries • Winning is Everything • Republican Winner Take All • Democrats Proportional • Reason for long 2008 Primary Campaign • Must win Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary • Winner is designated front-runner or presumptive nominee • Fourth Place or Worse means loss of campaign contributions • Media also diminishes campaign • Super Tuesday • Generally over by April • 2008 was an anomaly

  24. Iowa Caucus

  25. New Hampshire Primary

  26. The Convention • “Nominate” Candidate • Delegate count known from primary contest • Announcement now a show of party unity • Hillary Clinton throws support to Obama • Romney, Huckabee, Thomspon support McCain • Draft Party Platform • Adopt Party Rules • VP Pick Announced • Theatrics and Image • Obama Stadium Speech • Post-Convention Bounce • 5-10% swing in polls • McCain gained huge swing with Palin VP pick and led in polls

  27. The General Election • Electoral Map • Red States • Blue States • Purple States (Battleground or Swing States)

  28. Explaining Voting Choice • Party ID Key Indicator • Orientation • Retrospective • Evaluate Past Performance • Prospective • Evaluate Future Promises • Race • Whites Split • Hispanics Lean Democrat • Republicans use values as wedge • African Americans vote Democrat since 1964 • 90-95%

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