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National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. Visit of Southeastern University Research Association. March 2, 2011.

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National centers for environmental prediction an overview

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Visit of

Southeastern University Research Association

March 2, 2011


Ncep s role in noaa s seamless suite of products and forecast services

NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

Observe

To Serve Diverse

Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…)

- Process

- Assimilate

- Predict

Products & Forecast Services

Central

Guidance

Local

Offices

Respond & Feedback

NCEP

Distribute

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Feedback

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models


Ncep supports the noaa seamless suite of climate weather and ocean products

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Aviation Weather Center

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services


What does ncep do

Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

Climate Seasonal Forecasts

El Nino – La Nina Forecast

Weather Forecasts to Day 7

Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

Aviation Forecasts and Warnings

High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

What Does NCEP Do?

“From the Sun to the Sea”

  • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

  • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

  • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

5


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Service Center Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Seasonal Predictions

Months

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

CPC

2 Week

Climate/Weather

Linkage

6-10 Day Forecast

1 Week

NDFD, Days 4 -7

HPC

OPC

TPC

Days

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3

Tropical Storms to Day 5

Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8

:

SPC

AWC

SWPC

Hours

Minutes

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather1

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

Climate/Weather

Linkage

1 Week

Ocean Model

HYCOM

Wave Watch III

Global Forecast System

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

GLOFS

Bays

Chesapeake

Tampa

Delaware

North American Forecast

Hours

Hurricane – GFDL, WRF

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Minutes

Dispersion Models for DHS

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control


Noaa s model production suite

Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

Oceans

HYCOM

WAVEWATCH III

Climate

CFSv2

NOS

PORTS

Coupled

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

GLOFS

Chesapeake

Tampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

MOM4

3.5B Obs/Day

Satellites + Radar

99.9%

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

Global

Forecast

System

Regional

DA

Global Data

Assimilation

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Regional

DA

WRF: ARW, NMM

ETA, RSM

Air Quality

GFS, Canadian Global Model

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Update

for Aviation

8

NOAH Land Surface Model


Computing capability

Transition to IBM Power 6 complete

Declared operational August 12, 2009

73.1 trillion calculations/sec

Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5

156 POWER6 32-way nodes

4,992 processors

20 terabytes of memory

330 terabytes of disk space

3.5 billion observations/day

27.8 million model fields/day

Primary: Gaithersburg, MD

Backup: Fairmont, WV

Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

Number of Hits (Millions)

Computing Capability

“reliable, timely and accurate”

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2010

2009

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008


Examples of forecast metrics

Examples of Forecast Metrics

10


Test beds service science linkage between the operational and research communities

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

CPCClimate Test Bed

NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed

HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed

SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA

AWCAviation Weather Test Bed

OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch(CSDL and CO-OPS)

Test BedsService – Science Linkage between the Operational and Research Communities

14


Joint hurricane testbed

Joint Hurricane Testbed

Process

  • Managed through the NOAA USWRP

  • Designed to accelerate R2O at the USWRP

  • Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA

  • A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals

  • Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/EMC points of contact

  • At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff

  • Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs

  • 1) Number of projects supported: 62

    • 50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation, 5 rejected

    • 9.5 completed but pending further investigation

    • 12 projects in process: 12

  • 2) Number of projects implemented: 31.5

    • 10 numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO

    • 21.5 projects implemented by NHC

    • 4 projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4

2001 – 2010 Summary


Hazardous weather testbed

Hazardous Weather Testbed

  • Jointly managed by NSSL, SPC and WFO Norman

  • Designed to accelerate the transition of promising new meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States

  • Composed of two program areas

    • Experimental Forecast Program focuses on application of cutting edge numerical weather prediction models to improve severe weather forecasts

      • Accelerated Multi-Model Ensemble mesoscale application

      • Introduced probabilistic severe wx outlooks based on ensembles

    • Experimental Warning Program tests research concepts and technology specifically aimed at short-fused warnings of severe convective weather

  • Annual NOAA HWT Spring Experiment attracts about 100 researchers and forecasters to Norman each year.


Joint center for satellite data assimilation

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  • Partners: NASA, NOAA, and DoD (USAF &USN)

  • Mission: To accelerate use of satellite observations in partners’ operational environmental modeling systems

  • Keys to Success

    • Common science priorities, coordinated efforts, shared results

    • Research based on operational needs – transitionable results

    • Balance Research Program

      • ~ 40 External Projects 2000-2010

      • ~ 100 Internal Projects 2000-2010

  • Notable Achievements

    • Community Radiative Transfer Model

    • Assimilation of Advanced Sensor Data

      • AIRS, IASI, SSMIS, Winds, COSMIC

    • Joint OSSE System Development

    • Strong Outreach Program

      • Annual Science Workshop

      • Joint Workshops – ECMWF, HFIP

      • Biennial Colloquium for Students


Advancing climate prediction the climate test bed

Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed

  • Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office

  • Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities

  • Mission

  • To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

  • Research to Operations (R2O)

  • Operations to Research (O2R)

  • Focus Areas

    • CFS Improvements

    • Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems

    • Climate Forecast Products

  • Competitive Grants Program

  • CTB Seminar Series

  • CPC/CTB - RISA Program

  • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program

  • Delivered unified statistical post-processing after CFS version 1


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

HydroMeteorologicalTestbed

Description

Jointly managed by OAR/ESRL and HPC

Goal: To accelerate the transfer of scientific and technological innovations into operations to enhance HPC products and services

Roles:

  • Identify and test new techniques to improve HPC forecasts

  • Provide training in new techniques to HPC forecasters

  • Host visiting forecasters and scientists

  • Principal Collaborators:

  • Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, JHT)

  • Forecasters and academia

32


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment

Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011

  • 14 participants (WFOs, SPC, AWC, HPC,

  • EMC, ESRL, and COMET)

  • Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount?

  • Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?

Experimental NAM

HRW-ARW

HRW-NMM

Observed


Opc thoughts on an ocean coastal testbed

OPC thoughts on an Ocean-Coastal Testbed

Ocean Prediction Center within NOAA family

Traditional role

Provides operational data and forecast services

Facilitate R2O by linking science and users

Future Directions

An operational infrastructure to deliver relevant (e.g., clock driven) NOAA services

Enabling a broad range of NOAA applications (e.g., ocean, coastal, ecological) services

Must rely on NOAA (e.g., NOS) R&D resource and expertise for product development

Potential testbed focus areas

Physical forecasts and guidance

Storm Surge / Inundation

Wind Current Interactions

Water quality services

Sea Surface Salinity data applications and assessments

Ocean Color data applications

Enhancement of Harmful Algal Blooms, service delivery

Ensemble (probabilistic) approaches


Forces for change

Forces for Change

  • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite

    • SREF

    • NAEFS

    • Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP)

  • Entering the JPSS era

    • More rapid access to hyperspectral data

    • GPS soundings

    • Higher resolution surface radiance data

  • All models run within ESMF

    • Models run concurrently

    • Hybrid vertical coordinate

    • Coupled

    • Spanning all scales

  • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

ESMF-based System

Global/Regional Model Domain

Model Region 1

Model Region 2


Model production suite

Model Production Suite

Atmosphere

Ocean

Cryosphere

Land

  • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems

  • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

  • BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED


Ecological forecast system ongoing prototype projects

Ecological Forecast System: Ongoing Prototype Projects

Chesapeake Bay

Beach/Water Quality

Living Resource Distribution

Dissolved Oxygen Predictions

Harmful Algal Bloom

Disease Pathogen Progression

Gulf Coast

Gulf of Maine

Great Lakes

California Current

Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ...

Vibrio...

Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic

Barnacles, Muscles

Algal Blooms and Dead Zones


Ecosystem prediction

Ecosystem Prediction

Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay

Current Demonstration

Ready for Transition*

  • Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay

  • Generated since 2002

  • Important for water management and recreational purposes

* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers

Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Recent Research Highlight from GFDL:

High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH

  • Many of the oceanic consequences of climate change can best be explored with realistic high-resolution global ocean climate models, like those now being developed at GFDL.

  • Example below: The roles of ocean transport and microbial decay in determining the impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, explored with a 1/8° global ocean climate model in a collaboration between NOAA/GFDL & NOAA/OR&R.

Simulated Dissolved Oil Concentrations in the Mixed Layer on July 15, 2010

Omitting Microbial Decay with Microbial Decay (6 day Half-life)

Reference: A. Adcroft, R. Hallberg, J.P. Dunne, B.L. Samuels, J.A. Galt, C.H. Barker and D.Payton (2010):

Simulations of underwater plumes of dissolved oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL044689, in press.


New building status

New Building Status

  • The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete.

  • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending.

  • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction.

  • In December 2010, the Receiver petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit for dismissal of the previous claim filed by Maryland Enterprises. The Federal Court granted the motion on February 9, 2011 and dismissed the claim filed by the developer.

  • These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project.

  • GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012 with complete move-in by July 2012.


Summary

Summary

  • NCEP is

    • Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”

    • Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events

    • Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach

    • A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery

    • Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities

29


Appendix

Appendix

30


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

National

Hurricane

Center

Space Weather

Prediction Center


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather2

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Service Center Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Seasonal Predictions

Months

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

CPC

2 Week

Climate/Weather

Linkage

6-10 Day Forecast

1 Week

NDFD, Days 4 -7

HPC

OPC

TPC

Days

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3

Tropical Storms to Day 5

Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8

:

SPC

AWC

SWPC

Hours

Minutes

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Record Scores

Record Improvement


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3

12 km

1.5 km

Parent (12 km)

– 84 hrs

Children (6, 4 & 3 km)

– 60 hrs

IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km)

– 36 hrs

6 km

3 km

3 km

4 km

1.33 km

Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)  NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB)

-- Physics retuned for NMMB

-- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)


Eurosip update

EUROSIP Update

  • MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMet)

  • The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories)

  • CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP

37


Day at which forecast loses useful skill ac 0 6 n hemisphere 500hpa height calendar year means

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means

8.02d

Forecast day


National centers for environmental prediction an overview

2010

(preliminary)


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