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Disaster Risks and Capacities in Central Asia. Michael Thurman Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS "Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011. Contents. Risk = hazard exposure x vulnerability

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Disaster Risks and Capacities in Central Asia

Michael Thurman

Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS

"Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011


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Contents

  • Risk = hazard exposure x vulnerability

  • Capacity Averages (from CACDRR Capacity Assessment)

  • Capacity Gaps and capacity Development Priorities (from Group Work for HFA 1, 3, and 4)


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Geophysical Hazards

  • All major cities are highly exposed and contain a high concentration of population and economic activity.

  • Secondary effects include landslides, mudflows, and GLOFs. Not enough is known concerning the triggering effect.

  • Landslides triggered by geological, seismic, and meteorological processes

  • Landslides will become more frequent and intensify with climate change.

  • Transboundary hazards in Ferghana Valley and northern Tien Shan.


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Meteorological Hazards

  • 1991-2007: hydrological variability increased.

  • Downstream exposure to floods and hydrological drought often due to poor management at all levels.

  • Ferghana Valley and upper Amu Darya basin highly exposed to transboundary mudflow and GLOF hazards.

  • GLOFs are a growing concern, due to glacier melt.

  • Climate change will amplify exposure to all meteorological hazards.


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Compound Hazards

  • Hydrological drought and extreme cold:

    • “Compound crisis” of 2007-08: natural and man-made factors contributed to exposure

    • Climate change expected to result in warmer winters, but hydrological drought more severe

  • Technogenic hazards: Mayli Suu and other toxic waste particularly a concern in the Ferghana Valley


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Economic Vulnerability

  • Lack of adequate data, due to collection and analysis procedures for global and national datasets.

  • Potential for losses as % of GDP highest for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

  • Absolute amount of potential losses for other countries are higher.

  • Vulnerable to meteorological hazards: weather-dependent sectors account for 40-60% of GDP.


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Structural Vulnerability

  • Intense earthquake in a major city in Central Asia would collapse or severely damage around half of the residential building stock.

  • Water infrastructure deteriorated and vulnerable to flood hazards

  • Outdated building codes and lax enforcement attenuate structural vulnerability


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Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities

  • Poverty, income disparities, and social status significantly lower resilience.

  • Poor municipal and land use planning place populations, infrastructure, and livelihoods in the way of hazards.

  • Unsustainable operations and maintenance of infrastructure, especially for water, increases both exposure and vulnerability.

  • Agriculture requires development to lower vulnerability to drought and floods.

  • Environmental degradation contributes to exposure and vulnerability.


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CACDRRR Capacity Assessment Averages

  • Capacity indicators per priority areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action

  • Assessment of the existing capacity level 1 …… 5

  • Desired capacity level/priority (low, medium, high)


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Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 1

Ensuring Commitment, Enabling Environment and Institutional Development



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Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 4

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation



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