Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 20

Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 49 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane Analisi per aree di destinazione e per settore Alessandra Lanza – Chief Economist SACE S.p.A. Commercio, competitività e crescita Tendenze globali e prospettive per l’Italia Milano, 18 novembre 2005. Overview.

Download Presentation

Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Analisi per aree di destinazione e per settore

Alessandra Lanza – Chief Economist SACE S.p.A.

Commercio, competitività e crescita

Tendenze globali e prospettive per l’Italia

Milano, 18 novembre 2005


Overview

Overview

  • Review of recent Italian trade performance and prospects based on a newly created sectoral-bilateral trade model for Italy, as embedded within the OEF Global Macroeconomic Model.

  • Overall growth in Italian exports has lagged behind growth in the main export markets; sales of consumer goods in mature markets have under performed.

  • Total exports have been weak, but competitiveness, performance and good prospects maintained in key growth markets, especially in the investment goods sector.

  • Scenario analysis: a pick-up in European growth is crucial to Italian prospects. Industry could also be helped by competitiveness improving measures.


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Export Performance

% point

% point

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

Difference between average

-4

-4

annual growth of exports and

average annual growth of

markets for goods and services

1996-2004

-5

-5

-6

-6

US

JAP

GER

FRA

ITA

SPA

NETH

FIN

SWE

UK

Source: OEF


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Real effective exchange rate

1995=100

1995=100

180

180

Defined in terms of unit wage

170

170

costs in manufacturing

relative to rest of

160

160

Eurozone

UK

150

150

140

140

Italy

130

130

Spain

120

120

110

110

Germany

100

100

90

90

France

80

80

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: EU


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Composition of exports (2004)

Percentage of total value of goods exported

Italy

Germany

UK

Agriculture & food products

7.1

4.5

6.0

Consumer goods

27.7

15.9

14.3

Textiles and related products

14.4

3.3

3.6

Intermediate goods (inc. fuels)

24.2

24.5

33.6

Chemicals & pharmaceuticals

12.7

15.8

19.0

Investment goods

40.9

55.2

46.1

Mechanical engineering

21.4

19.3

17.7

Electrical engineering

8.9

15.1

14.8

Source: Eurostat (based on HS classification)


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

To Poland

€ million

€ million

4000

1600

ToChina

Germany

3500

1400

(LHS)

€ million

€ million

3000

1200

9000

2500

Italy

2500

1000

8000

(RHS)

2000

2000

800

7000

Italy

6000

1500

600

(RHS)

Germany

1500

5000

(LHS)

1000

400

France

4000

500

200

1000

(RHS)

3000

France

0

0

(RHS)

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

500

1000

0

0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: Eurostat

Exports of mechanical engineering products


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Value of Italian Exportsby Sector

% year

% year

20

20

Forecast

Goods

15

15

2006-09: 7.7% pa

10

10

5

5

Services

2006-09: 3.6% pa

0

0

-5

-5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: OEF/SACE


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% year

% year

25

25

Forecast

Intermediate

20

20

Investment

15

15

10

10

5

5

Consumer

0

0

-5

-5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Value of Italian Exportsby Sector


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% of goods exports

% of goods exports

45

45

40

40

Investment

35

35

Consumer

30

30

25

25

20

20

Intermediate

15

15

10

10

5

5

Forecast

0

0

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Italian Exports by Sector


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Italian Exports of Goods by Continent

% year

% year

40

Asia-Pacific

2006-09: 10%

Eastern Europe

2006-09: 9%

30

20

EU15

2006-09: 6.9%

10

0

North America

2006-09: 6.9%

-10

-20

Latin America

2006-09:7.7%

Forecast

-30

2007

2008

2009

Source: OEF/SACE


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% of total

% of total

18

18

Forecast

16

16

Germany

14

14

12

12

France

10

10

US

8

8

UK

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Italian Exports of Goods

by Country


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

Forecast

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

Turkey

Poland

1.6

1.6

China

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

Romania

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

Indonesia

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

Russia

0.6

0.6

India

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

Thailand

0.2

0.2

Forecast

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Italian Exports of Goods

by Country


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

US$

US$

US$

US$

5000

5000

10000

10000

Forecast

4500

4500

9000

9000

4000

4000

8000

8000

Russia

3500

3500

7000

7000

Thailand

Poland

3000

3000

6000

6000

China

2500

2500

5000

5000

2000

2000

4000

4000

Bulgaria

Turkey

Indonesia

1500

1500

3000

3000

1000

1000

2000

2000

India

500

500

1000

1000

Forecast

0

0

0

0

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Source: OEF/SACE

Per Capita GDP


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% of total

% year

% of total

% year

30

30

18

18

Forecast

Forecast

25

25

16

16

US

Germany

20

20

14

14

France

15

15

12

12

UK

10

10

10

10

France

US

5

5

8

8

0

0

UK

6

6

-5

-5

4

4

-10

-10

Germany

-15

-15

2

2

-20

-20

0

0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Consumer Goods Exports

by Country


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% of total

% of total

% year

% year

1.3

1.3

30

30

Forecast

Forecast

1.2

1.2

25

25

1.1

1.1

20

20

China

1.0

1.0

China

15

15

0.9

0.9

Thailand

0.8

0.8

10

10

0.7

0.7

5

5

0.6

0.6

0

0

Indonesia

0.5

0.5

Thailand

0.4

0.4

-5

-5

India

0.3

0.3

India

-10

-10

0.2

0.2

Indonesia

-15

-15

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

-20

-20

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Consumer Goods Exports

by Country


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

Forecast

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

Turkey

2.5

2.5

Poland

China

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Russia

Indonesia

Romania

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

India

0.5

0.5

Thailand

0.5

0.5

Forecast

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Investment Goods

Exports by Country


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Investment Goods

Exports by Country

% year

% year

25

25

US

France

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

UK

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

Germany

-15

-15

Forecast

-20

-20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

% year

% of total

% year

% of total

20

20

16

16

Forecast

Forecast

Germany

14

14

15

15

12

12

France

France

10

10

10

10

UK

US

5

5

8

8

Germany

6

6

0

0

UK

4

4

US

-5

-5

2

2

-10

-10

0

0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: OEF/SACE

Intermediate Goods Exports

by Country


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Scenario Analysis

Impact of a rise in Eurozone private consumption of 1% of GDP

Impact of a rise in Eurozone business investment of 1% of GDP

Source: OEF/SACE


Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Scenario Analysis

Impact of reducing the rate of employers social security contributions by 5% points

Impact of reducing the rate of employers social security contributions by 5% points

Source: OEF/SACE


  • Login