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Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat Canadian Public Health Association May 27, 2014. Future Incidence , Prevalence and Cost of Diabetes : An applied example of using a population prediction tool to inform public health.

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Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat

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Laura rosella nancy ramuscak michael lebenbaum amalia plotogea david mowat

Laura Rosella

Nancy Ramuscak

Michael Lebenbaum

Amalia Plotogea

David Mowat

Canadian Public Health Association

May 27, 2014

Future Incidence, Prevalence and Cost of Diabetes: An applied example of using a population prediction tool to inform public health


Population risk algorithm diabetes population risk tool dport

Population Risk Algorithm:Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT)


Diabetes population risk tool dport

Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT)

  • Vision: To enable decision-makers to use routinely collected population characteristics to estimate the number of new diabetes cases in their population of interest for the purpose of:

    • Resource planning

    • Prevention

    • Understanding distribution of risk in the population

    • Facilitating decision-making and priority setting

  • Used to quantify the impact that changes in baseline risk factors will have on future diabetes incidence

  • Designed to be applied to routinely collected and publicly available data allowing the tool to be used by a wide audience.

  • Source: Rosella L C et al. J Epidemiol Community Health doi:10.1136/jech.2009.102244


    Laura rosella nancy ramuscak michael lebenbaum amalia plotogea david mowat

    DPoRT Knowledge to Action

    OBJECTIVE 2: Complete the KtoA cycle :

    (i) Training and supporting health professionals and decision makers to use DPoRT

    (ii) Assessing barriers and facilitators of DPoRT use

    (iii) Tailoring and delivering the outputs of DPoRT to inform decisions

    OBJECTIVE 3: Evaluate the process

    Adapted from Graham ID, Logan J, Harrison MB, et al. Lost in knowledge translation: time for a map? J ContinEduc Health Prof 2006;26:13-24

    OBJECTIVE 1: Create and support partnerships


    Laura rosella nancy ramuscak michael lebenbaum amalia plotogea david mowat

    Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)

    Overview of DPoRT application

    Restrict sample

    (E.g. Peel residents who are age ≥20 without diabetes)

    Re-code CCHS variables for DPoRT

    Use DPoRT risk equation to estimate

    individual 10-yearrisk and the

    number of diabetes cases they represent

    Identify the effects of prevention activities

    Calculate summary statistics for overall population

    Identify high risk Individuals

    Identify risk across population strata

    Identify future health care needs


    Projecting future burden of diabetes

    Projecting Future Burden of Diabetes


    Total number of incident cases of diabetes and projected risk by body mass index bmi peel 2012 2022

    Total number of incident cases of diabetes and projected risk by Body Mass Index (BMI), Peel, 2012-2022


    Intervention scenarios

    Intervention Scenarios


    Attributable costs of diabetes

    Attributable Costs of Diabetes


    Next steps

    Next Steps

    • Knowledge to Action evaluation

    • Application to real world examples

    • Communication of results to public health staff

    • Use during program planning and decision-making

    • Update with each new release of Canadian Community Health Survey data


    Thank you

    Thank you!

    Questions?


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