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CSME Integration Possibilities - An Oil and Gas Perspective. T. M. Boopsingh Sherbourne Conference Centre. Barbados , 29 th June 2006. Outline. International Energy Overview - Geographic, Economic and Global Realities A Brief Review of Inputs - Geographic and Regional Overview

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CSME

Integration Possibilities

- An Oil and Gas Perspective

T. M. Boopsingh

Sherbourne Conference Centre

Barbados, 29th June 2006


Outline
Outline

  • International Energy Overview

    -Geographic,Economic and Global Realities

  • A Brief Review of Inputs- Geographic and Regional Overview

    - The Trinidad and Tobago Downstream industry

    - A Regional demand Analysis

  • The Way Forward– Regional & National Issues - The Opportunities



International perspectives the region in the world
International Perspectives- The Region in the World

  • Western Energy Security

  • World Economic Growth

    China &Indiamake the new difference

  • Saudi vs Iraqi Resources

  • US vs European/Japanese Interests

  • Russian Oil and now GAS

  • Other US Needs, Interests & Inputs Imports, Transportation, Sales, Technology


The Caribbean’s Energy Needs

  • Bulk vs Supplemental

  • Urban vs Rural

  • Primary vs Secondary Energy

  • Electricity vs Transportation

  • Medium term vs Long term


World energy demand to 2025

World Energy Demand to 2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004; EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004


Projected Contributions from "New" Renewable Energy Sources in 2020

ETW "Minimum"ETW "Maximum"Mtoe% of totalMtoe % of total

Modern biomass 243 45 561 42

Solar 109 20 355 26

Other (wind,

geothermal,

small hydro, waste) 187 35 429 32

Total 539 100 1345 100

% of TotalPrimary

Energy Consumption 3-48 -12

Source: WEC’s ETW 2000.NB. In 1990 new renewables contributed 164 Mtoe (1.9% to total energy demand).


The Coming Age of Natural Gas in 2020

  • Infrastructure issues

  • Gas Hydrates

  • Fuel Cells


Sources of production for the caribbean

Sources of Production in 2020 for the Caribbean

Sections 2a & 2b


The sources of energy geographically
The Sources of Energy in 2020 - Geographically

  • US Gulf Coast

  • Venezuela*

  • Trinidad and Tobago# - CSME member

  • Colombia

  • Mexico*

  • West Africa#

  • Other, inc.Brazil, Ecuador, Middle East, etc.

    * Oil Exporter # Oil & Gas Exporter


Petroleum Products in 2020

Oil, Products & LNG

Oil & Petroleum Products


T&T - Existing Gas Based Plants in 2020

  • 1 Natural Gas Liquids Processing Facility

  • 4 LNG Trains (2300 MMscfd)

  • 9 Ammonia Plants (4,485 MTPA)

  • 1 Urea Plant (550 MTPA)

  • 5 Methanol Plants (2,960 MTPA)

  • 4 Iron and Steel Mills (2,560 MTPA)

  • 4 Power Generation Plants - Powergen (3) & Inncogen

  • 1 Offshore Platform Fabrication Yard

  • Other

    • Refinery

    • Cement Manufacture

    • Light Industrial/Commercial Consumers - 96

    • 2 Gas Fired Air Cooling Projects

    • 4000 CNG powered vehicles


4 LNG Trains in 2020




Pricing natural gas in t t
Pricing Natural Gas in T&T in 2020

  • Net back Pricingbased on Product sales prices

    – LNG, Methanol, Ammonia,

  • Alternate Fuel Pricinge.g. Fuel Oil/Crude Oil

  • Net back Pricingbased on Product sales prices- Steel; Aluminium ?

  • Domestic Pricing -TTEC, Small Manufacturers.


Proposed new plants in trinidad
Proposed New Plants in Trinidad in 2020

  • Alutrint Aluminium Smelter

  • Aluminium Wire, Rods, Wheels, Parts

  • AnsaMcal/Terra UAN Ammonia complex

  • Clico Energy et. al. UAM Ammonia complex

  • Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline

  • Alcoa Smelter

  • New Refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre

  • Westlake Ethylene Complex, etc,


A demand analysis in the caribbean section 2c
A Demand Analysis in 2020in the CaribbeanSection 2c



Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 in 2020(BBls/Day)– North Caribbean Markets

Source: T.A. Byer


Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 in 2020(BBls/day)– Eastern Caribbean Markets

Source: T.A. Byer


Conclusions of Macro-Economic in 2020

& Petroleum Demand Analysis

  • Power Sector is the prime activity for displacing liquid fuels – represented by few corporate entities which facilitates implementation

  • Transport sector fuels – gasoline, Avjet and diesel oil – substitution more difficult.

Source: T.A. Byer



Final System Layout in 2020

Technical Considerations

  • Larger markets and less risky service via Easternsegment to Barbados

  • Western segment’s small diameter (5”) facilitates minimizing impact of geo-technical hazards in servicing Grenada and St Vincent. Not Commercial.

  • Interconnect point in Martinique to re-distribute to Central& Northern systems

    • Access to Fort de France markets

  • More difficult subsea terrain characterizes Northern route to Guadeloupe and Dominica

Northern

Central

Western

Eastern


T t its role in the hemisphere
T&T in 2020 – Its Role in the Hemisphere

  • US LNG Imports

  • Largest world Ammonia and Methanol exporter

  • Deep Water Prospects


U.S. LNG Imports in 2020

BCFD

20

18

16

14

12

10

Projected Range of Imports

8

6

4

2

0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Cambridge Energy Research Associates

“New Realities, New Risks: North American Gas and Power Scenarios Through 2020”



T&T in 2020 - Its Role in the Region

  • US LNG Imports

  • US Ammonia & Methanol Imports

  • Deep Water Prospects

  • Location re Venezuela

  • Caribbean Refining Center

  • Small and Strategically positioned



The way forward
The Way Forward in 2020

  • Long Term – 1.Solarinc. Photo Voltaic

    2. Otherinc. Conservation, Energy Security, Diversification

    Private Capital - The key to prioritization

  • Medium Term – Natural Gas & Bio-fuelsa) Eastern Caribbean Pipeline

    b) LNG for Northern Caribbean

  • Domestic Demand Management

    inc. Price Differentiation, Supply Diversification, Affordability, Trade Cooperation, Conservation


Regional and national structures
Regional and National Structures in 2020

  • REAP – a critical Institutional product

  • Cooperating within the ACS

  • Using Market related pricing

  • Partnering J/V’s and/with IOC’s

  • Facilitate Refining, Shipping & Trading

  • Establish credible Regulatory Agencies


New downstream potential
New downstream potential in 2020

  • Steel and Steel products

  • Aluminium and its products

  • Gas based Petroleum Products

  • Natural Gas in Cooling

  • CNG in land transportation

  • Ethylene based Plastics


New trading potential
New Trading potential in 2020

  • Alumina and Aluminium products

  • Forest and wood products

  • New Petroleum Products

  • Fertilisers and by-products

  • Plastics


THE END in 2020

Oh to be like this!

Thank Thank you for your attention.

ur attention.


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