Adaptation to climate change in the northeast the view from the incubator
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ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHEAST - THE VIEW FROM THE INCUBATOR. Hector Galbraith Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences. INCUBATOR?. Northeast has become leader in climate change impacts and adaptation because of three-way confluence:

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ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHEAST - THE VIEW FROM THE INCUBATOR

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Adaptation to climate change in the northeast the view from the incubator

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHEAST - THE VIEW FROM THE INCUBATOR

Hector Galbraith

Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences


Incubator

INCUBATOR?

Northeast has become leader in climate change impacts and adaptation because of three-way confluence:

  • Major strategic investments (Duke, NEAFWA, state and federal agencies, other foundations)

  • Willingness of states and federal agencies to confront challenge

  • Involvement of NGOs (NWF, TNC, Manomet, UCS…)

    Many of approaches developed in NE are now models for the rest of the U.S. – VA Guidance


Adaptation to climate change the big questions

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE – THE BIG QUESTIONS

  • Which resources are vulnerable?

  • How do we manage resources under climate change?

  • Climate-smart acquisition strategies?

  • Implementation – how can science affect policy?


Adaptation progress in the northeast

ADAPTATION PROGRESS IN THE NORTHEAST

  • Vulnerability assessment - what is being done?

  • Who is doing it?

  • What are the next big challenges?

  • Coastal birds and wetlands

  • Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)


Vulnerability assessment massachusetts project

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT - MASSACHUSETTS PROJECT

Logistics:

Funding source – Doris Duke grant administered by Wildlife Conservation Society

Timeline – 18 month project begun in April/May 2008. Concludes this October

Collaborative – Manomet, DFW, TNC


Massachusetts project objectives

Massachusetts Project - Objectives

  • To put climate change on “front burner” of conservation planning

  • To evaluate vulnerabilities of habitats and SGNC in SWAP

  • To identify management opportunities and strategies

  • To inform future land acquisition policies


Habitat vulnerability

Habitat Vulnerability

Note: the leftmost bar in each pair represents a doubling of CO2, while the right bar is a tripling.


Vulnerability factors

VULNERABILITY FACTORS


Sgnc vulnerability

SGNC Vulnerability


Beyond massachusetts progress elsewhere in the northeast

BEYOND MASSACHUSETTS – PROGRESS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST

NWF/Manomet holding climate change workshops in:

  • New Jersey

  • New York

  • Massachusetts

  • Vermont

  • New Hampshire


Adaptation planning in the northeast

ADAPTATION PLANNING IN THE NORTHEAST

Adaptation steering committees formed in:

  • Massachusetts (Climate Change and Wildlife Alliance)

  • Vermont

  • New Jersey

  • New York

    Comprise, state agencies, NGOs, feds


Vulnerability assessment in the northeast

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE NORTHEAST

Massachusetts – species and habitats – completed

Virginia – species – ongoing

New Jersey – species (?) – beginning

New York – habitats and species – beginning

Maine – comprehensive VA. Moving on to species and habitats VA


Next big challenges

Next BIG Challenges

  • Regional focus (vulnerability and investments)

  • Beyond resilience - effective on-the-ground tools and solutions

  • Climate change, ecoservices, and communities

  • Landscape-level, multi-sectoral adaptation

  • Climate-smart policy


Manomet usfws coastal project

MANOMET/USFWS COASTAL PROJECT

Manomet is working with USFWS at three NWRs (Monomoy, Chincoteague, Forsythe) to:

  • Help reserve staff address implications of climate change

  • Develop a protocol for assessing site vulnerabilities

  • Begin to identify potential adaptation options


Parker river slamm modelling 2100

PARKER RIVER – SLAMM MODELLING 2100

Cloughand Larsen, 2009

0.39m

1.0m


Coastal conservation planning under slr

COASTAL CONSERVATION PLANNING UNDER SLR

  • We are forming a coherent picture of how habitats will be affected at particular sites (all SLR is local!)


Future sea level rise at north left and south right san francisco bays

Future Sea Level Rise at North (left) and South (right) San Francisco Bays

Galbraith et al., 2002


Coastal conservation planning under slr1

COASTAL CONSERVATION PLANNING UNDER SLR

  • We have not yet addressed major question – where will these systems “want to go to”

  • Our data set is not adequate (need more LiDAR)


North atlantic lcc and climate change

NORTH ATLANTIC LCC AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Provides major opportunity to address and resolve climate challenges in Northeast:

  • Regionalization (VA, science, policy)

  • Landscape-scale planning

  • Building “climate-smart” adaptation approaches

  • Capacity building

  • Coordination and integration of knowledge/effort


North atlantic lcc and climate change projects

NORTH ATLANTIC LCC AND CLIMATE CHANGE - PROJECTS

  • Coastal migration at sites (more LiDAR data)

  • Regional vulnerability assessment (habitats, species)

  • Development and testing of adaptation approaches

  • Landscape-scale adaptation planning

  • Capacity building in states, NGOs, landtrusts, private owners.


North atlantic lcc and climate change1

NORTH ATLANTIC LCC AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Need to coordinate with other LCCs

  • Is climate change a scientific challenge – YES

  • Even more of an organizational challenge


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