SEARCH A system-scale, cross-disciplinary, long-term, arctic research program

1. SEARCH A system-scale, cross-disciplinary, long-term, arctic research program Status and Future Plans Peter Schlosser for SEARCH SSC CLIVAR Summit, Keystone, CO, August 15 – 18, 05

2. Outline • Underlying observations • SEARCH objectives • SEARCH strategy and organization • Implementation Status • International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC) • SEARCH/ISAC and IPY/iAOOS • Summary

3. Starting Point: System-scale Change • The Arctic has been characterized in recent decades by a complex of interrelated, pan-arctic changes occurring across terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric and human systems • Observed physical changes have large impacts on arctic ecosystems and society • Anthropogenically-driven climate change component likely

4. SEARCH Objectives The overall objective of SEARCH is to Understand the nature, extent and future development of the system-scale change presently seen in the Arctic. Past Present Future

5. SEARCH Objectives Meeting SEARCH objectives requires: • Examining if such changes have happened before (OCP) • Following the evolution of the changes (OCP) • Understanding the forcing mechanisms and feedbacks that control the changes (UCP) • Understanding the interaction between changes in the physical/chemical, biological, and human domains (‘Human/Environment Interface’) (RCP)

6. SEARCH Focus: ACC Hurrell AO/NAM ‘Cyclical’ NSIDC Secular

7. Overall SEARCH Strategy Science Plan & Implementation Strategy at:http://www.arcus.org/SEARCH/index.php

8. Organization • US Interagency Support (NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOI) • EU for ASOF

9. SEARCH Implementation Status • Implementation strategy published (2003) • Initial dedicated funding is in place from several U.S. agencies including NSF, NOAA, and NASA • About 43 SEARCH core projects funded (20 NSF, 12 NOAA, 11 NASA); 12 SEARCH – related projects; full inventory of SEARCH-related projects is underway (for inventory, see SEARCH www site) • Panels and working groups will prioritize implementation strategy and, together with SSC, will write implementation plan • Integration of SEARCH with IPY foci on environmental change, observing systems, and Human/Environment interface.

10. Atmospheric Observations

11. Ocean Observations

12. Ocean Observations

13. SEARCH Implementation Status Figure 2. SEARCH priority areas for marine observations. Eurasian observations (green symbols) will focus on Arctic/Atlantic linkages, with some explicit U.S. collaborations assumed. For SEARCH, the highest priority for physical/chemical observations is repeat surveys across major frontal features [via ships/aircraft/AUVs (yellow dotted lines) or drifting buoys (yellow triangles)], perhaps anchored by funded observing stations at the North Pole and Beaufort Gyre (large yellow dots). A pending proposal to place an observing station at Bering Strait is also indicated (black dot). The second priority is boundary flux sections and moorings across Bering Strait and the Canadian Archipelago (blue dotted lines). The third priority is boundary flux moorings (yellow stars and red dotted lines) along the slopes and ridges. The highest priority for SEARCH is long-term, large-scale observations of environmental change.

14. Sea Ice Observations

15. Established SEARCH Components • ASOF: Arctic/Subarctic Ocean Fluxes • key ocean exchanges • BEST: Bering Ecosystem Study • eastern Bering Sea ecosystems • FWI: Freshwater Initiative • freshwater cycle land/upper ocean linkages; links CHAMP, ASOF, and SEARCH

16. ISACInternational Study of Arctic Change • Recognition that SEARCH scope can not be carried byone nation alone • Large interest in SEARCH in the international community (SEARCH OSM; October 2003; Seattle) • Jointly sponsored by the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB) and International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) • Planning group convened (2004) • Draft science overview document produced presented at Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW), April 2005. Positive responses from AOSB and IASC. • SSG will be formed and Project Office will be established • SEARCH will become a national program under the umbrella of ISAC

17. IPY 2007/2008

18. IPY: SEARCH and iAOOS The Northern Seas at a time of Global Change: an AOSB-CLIC observing plan for the IPY Europe: DAMOCLES: Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies Compiled by Bob Dickson, CEFAS with contributions from 30 individuals (10 nations)

19. SEARCH: more than iAOOS • Integrated Arctic System Observing System: • Marine • Terrestrial • Atmospheric • Human Domain • Balance between observing, understanding and responding to change • More emphasis on Human/Environment interface

20. Summary • SEARCH implementation is well underway • SEARCH entails components of the iAOOS and of ASOF • IPY expected to accelerate SEARCH implementation

22. Change impacts the Arctic System • Local infrastructure, transportation • Subsistence activities • Coastal erosion • Storm patterns • Shipping routes • Fisheries SEARCH and ACIA: Arctic analog to WCRP/IGBP/IHDP/ESSP and IPCC

23. Arctic Change in the Headlines Topic of 2005 ARCUS Forum Need for scientific clarity on Arctic Change

24. Initial SEARCH focus: AO

25. SEARCH is underway FWI results: Yanling Yu Harry L. Stern NSF OPP-0229473 Jan. 2003-Dec. 2005

26. SEARCH Implementation Status Example: Distributed Marine Observatories:Several elements of original strategy have been implemented

27. SEARCH and IPY • SEARCH exists in ‘pilot mode’; ISAC is being developed • Plans for full implementation being refined and prioritized • SEARCH / ISAC contribute significantly to IPY themes 1, 3, and 4 (U.S. IPY vision plan) • IPY would profit from existing and planned SEARCH and ISAC activities in the field of Arctic environmental change and system-scale arctic observing systems • SEARCH and ISAC would profit from implementation of IPY themes 1, 3, and 4 • SEARCH/ISAC and IPY provide platforms for accelerated implementation of integrated Arctic studies on the international level

28. iAOOS: Objectives “Here, under the stimulus of the IPY we assemble the scientific expertise and advanced sensor systems of North America, Europe and parts of Asia in an attempt to view the changing ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere of high northern latitudes as a complete system for the first time.”

29. iAOOS implementation and SEARCH “The AOSB-CLIC Science Plan will provide the agreed pan-arctic structure. Implementation will follow the principal funding sources, with the AOOS-SEARCH SSG under Peter Schlosser LDEO responsible for implementing the ‘North American’ part of this pan-Arctic Plan, including both NSF and NOAA projects plus companion Canadian and Pacific-Arctic efforts …” Europe: DAMOCLES: Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies

30. iAOOS and SEARCH Legacies iAOOS SEARCH

31. SEARCH and iAOOS Legacies Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies Dickson: AOSB Newsletter

32. SEARCH: Terrestrial Obs. Distributed Terrestrial Observatories

33. SEARCH Atmospheric Obs. Large – Scale Atmospheric Observations

34. Observations vs UC and RC • Emphasis during IPY on observations • However, critical mass of activities in Understanding of and Responding to Change has to be maintained • Success of SEARCH and ISAC depend on balanced approach including observations, data assimilation, synthesis, modeling and concepts for dealing with response of the Arctic system to Change

35. DAMOCLES • DAMOCLES will seek international collaboration with CliC, GEO, SEARCH, GOOS, ISAC, GCOS etc… and cooperation with European and National projects. DAMOCLES is composed of 8 work packages: • 1. Sea-ice • 2. Atmosphere • 3. Ocean • 4. Data assimilation, large-scale modeling and forecasting • 5. Impacts and assessments • 6. Data base, data management, access and dissemination • 7. High tech. instrumentation and logistics • 8. Public outreach, training and education end -users

36. iAOOS