9/11/2014. Outline Decisions The representativeness heuristic The availability heuristic Anchoring and adjustment The simulation heuristic Undoing and hindsight biases Limited domain knowledge Processing resources The Framing Effect Limitations in reasoning Naïve Physics
• Compare and contrast the representativeness and the availability heuristics.
• Describe the framing effect. What is loss aversion? When do we tend to become risk takers when maker decisions?
Person 2 -> 364/365 = .99
Person 3 cannot have the same birthday as 1 or 2
& Person 2 cannot have the same birthday as 1
Multiplicative Rule: The joint probability of two independent events is the product of their individual probabilities
Person 3 -> 363/365 X .99 = .99
Person 4 -> 362/365 X .99 = .98
Person 5 -> 361/365 X .98 = .97
Person 6 -> 360/365 X .97 = .95
Person 10 -> 356/365 X .90 = .88
Person 15 -> 351/365 X .77 = .75
Person 20 -> 346/365 X .62 = .59
Person 25 -> 341/365 X .46 = .43
Person 30 -> 336/365 X .32 = .29
Person 35 -> 331/365 X .21 = .19
Person 40 -> 326/365 X .12 = .11
Person 45 -> 321/365 X .07 = .06
Person 50 -> 316/365 X .03 = .03
E.g. Listen to this list of names
E.g., Answer the following:
1) Which is a more likely cause of death in the United States: being killed by falling airplane parts or being killed by a shark?
2) Do more Americans die from a) homicide and car accidents, or b) diabetes and stomach cancer?
3) Which claims more lives in the United States: lightning or tornadoes?
A large city is on the verge of a rare asian bird flu outbreak and it is expected that 600 people will be infected. Two alternative programs have been proposed to fight the disease. Assume that these are the exact scientific estimates of the two programs:
If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third possibility that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.
Which program would you favour?
Average working hours
Reasonable report with the child
Relatively stable social life
Above average income
Very close relationship with child
Extremely active social life
Lots of work-related travel
Minor health problems
To whom do you award sole custody?
-> 64 % Chose Parent B
To whom would you deny sole custody?
-> 55 % Chose Parent B.
Linda is 31 years old, single outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with the issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-globalization demonstrations.
Dashed = Controls
Dotted = Temporal lobe
Solid = Prefrontal lobe
• Complete the following Sequence:
O, T, T, F, F, S, S, E, N, ….
• A Buddhist Monk leaves for a retreat atop a nearby mountain. He leaves at 6:00 AM and follows the only path that leads up the mountain. He travels quickly some of the way, he travels slowly, he stops for breaks. He arrives at the top of the mountain at 6:00 PM. The next morning, at 6:00 AM, he descends the mountain, again travelling at varying paces and with breaks. He arrives at 6:00 PM
Is there a point on the trail that the monk would have passed at exactly the same time of day on the way up and on the way down the trail?
• Three hobbits and three orcs need to cross a river. There is only one boat, and it can only hold two creatures at a time. This presents a problem: Orcs are vicious and whenever there are more orcs than hobbits they immediately attack and eat the hobbits. Thus, you can never let orcs outnumber hobbits on either side of the river.
Can you schedule a series of crossing that will get everyone safely across the river?
• Connect these nine dots with four connected straight lines.
• Three people play a card game. Each player has money in front of them (their ante). One each hand of this game, one player loses and the other two players win. The rules state that the loser must use the money in front of them to double the amount of money in front of each of the other two players. They stake their antes and play three hands. Each of them loses once and no one goes bust. The each finish with $8.00. What were the original antes (Hint: it is not $2 each).
• A landscaper has been instructed to plant four new trees such that each one is exactly the same distance away from each of the other trees. Is this possible?