CI- FLOW Project Coastal & Inland Flooding Observation and Warning

1. CI-FLOW Project Coastal & Inland Flooding Observation and Warning Kodi MonroeSea Grant Weather & Climate Extension AgentNational Severe Storms LaboratoryNorman, OK

2. Origin of the CI-FLOW Project Initiated in response to Hurricanes Dennis & Floyd in Sep 1999 • 20-25 in of rain over 10 days • River crests up to 24 ftabove flood stage • Storm surge as high as 10 ft Impacts • 52 lives lost in North Carolina • Homes: 7,000 destroyed; 17,000 uninhabitable; 56,000 damaged • 30,000 hogs, 700,000 turkeys, & 2.4 million chickens drowned • Warnings that tap water may contain high levels of fecal coliform bacteria

3. History of the CI-FLOW Project 2000: NOAA OAR & National Sea Grant Meeting • Increase collaboration between Sea Grant Extension Network & OAR research labs • Established Inland FLood Warning (IFLOW) Project to force OU hydrologic model with NSSL precipitation estimates National Sea Grant Office North Carolina Sea Grant S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

4. History of the CI-FLOW Project 2001: NCSU joins IFLOW • Coupled hydrologic model forced with NSSL precipitation estimates to Coastal & Estuary Model & Environmental Prediction System (CEMEPS) 2006: IFLOW becomes CI-FLOW • Sea Grant funds Weather & Climate Extension Agent position at NSSL • NWS hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) implemented National Sea Grant Office North Carolina Sea Grant S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

5. History of the CI-FLOW Project 2008: CI-FLOW expands • NOAA SECART funds nowCOAST portal • OU & UNC researchers join CI-FLOW to include ADvancedCIRCulation model + unstructured Simulating WAvesNearshore model 2010: Hurricane Earl is first real-time test of CI-FLOW • Established relationship with EPA 2011: Hurricane Irene is first robust test of CI-FLOW National Sea Grant Office North Carolina Sea Grant S.C. Sea Grant Consortium Texas Sea Grant

6. CI-FLOW Partners

7. Increasing Hydrologic Forecasting Capabilities In Coastal Watersheds Current NWS Forecast Points CI-FLOW Forecast Points

8. CI-FLOW Precipitation Past rainfall: NSSL’s Next Generation QPE (Q2) • Best practices of OHD’s Multi-sensor QPE (MPE) & NSSL’s National Mosaic & Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ) • Gauge-adjusted 1-hour accumulation • Uncorrected QPE available every 5 min at 1-km resolution Future rainfall: HydrometeorologicalPrediction Center’s QPF • 6-hour accumulation http://nmq.ou.edu

9. CI-FLOW Hydrologic Modeling • Tar-Pamlico & Neuse river basins • Hydrology Laboratory – Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) by NWS • Hybrid conceptual-physical distributed watershed model: • Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) • Kinematic Wave Model for routing • 4-km resolution • 19 parameters; 6 state variables

10. CI-FLOW Hydrologic Model Ensemble • “Event-based” parameter set (Isabel) x 16 rainfall multipliers (0.8-1.2, uniformly distributed) • “Automatic” parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers • Multiple basin scale parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers • A-priori model (uncalibrated) x 5 rainfall multiplier x 16 channel routing perturbations = 80 Total Number of Members = 16x3 + 80 = 128 • Runs every 6 hours with rainfall forcing from NMQ/Q2 observations for past & HPC QPFs for future times

11. CI-FLOW Storm Surge ModelADvancedCIRCulation + Simulating WAvesNearshore • Asymmetric Vortex Wind Model • Uses official track, forward speed, radius to maximum winds, central pressure & other information from NHC advisories • 2-D ADCIRC • Tides & tidal potential • River input provided by HL-RDHM at 4 hand-off points • Wind waves • Wetting/drying of elements • SWAN: Spectral wave model • Waves in all 360 degrees • Wave action balance equation with sources/sinks

12. CI-FLOW Storm Surge ModelADvancedCIRCulation + Simulating WAvesNearshore • Unstructured finite element grid • High resolution for the Tar & Neuse Rivers, Outer Banks, & Pamlico Sound (down to 30 – 60 m) • Dynamic coupling between ADCIRC & SWAN • Predictions of total water level, maximum inundation, wave height, wave period, & tides

13. Distribution of InformationNSSL Password-protected Website – mimics NWS AHPS

14. Distribution of InformationCoastal Environmental Risks Assessmenthttp://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera_nc/cera_nc.cgi

15. Distribution of InformationCoastal Environmental Risks Assessment

16. Distribution of InformationGoogle Earth kmz files – available via OPeNDAP

17. Distribution of InformationNOAA nowCOASThttp://nowcoast.noaa.gov/ciflow/

18. CI-FLOW User Engagement Primary Users • Raleigh, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office • Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office • NWS Southeast River Forecast Center Secondary Users (briefed by NWS forecasters) • Local Emergency Managers (communities & universities) • State Emergency Management • North Carolina & Virginia • NC Central & Eastern Branches • North Carolina Department of Transportation

19. Future CI-FLOW Work • Account for rainfall over ADCIRC domain • Water quality modeling • Expand to other regions: South Carolina, Texas, Louisiana Kodi Nemunaitis-Monroe Kodi.Nemunaitis@noaa.gov http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow/