N O T E

1. N O T E If the slide show is not launched, click on View  Slide Show in the menu bar at the top of the Power Point window. When the View option is not visible, the slide show has been launched and you must click to proceed to the next slide.

2. U S I N G R I S K P L U S

3. U S I N G R I S K P L U S All Risk + functions are accessed from MS Project 2000. To begin using Risk +, launch MS Project 2000. If the Risk+ software has been correctly installed on your computer, you will see the Risk Analysis Menu and the Risk Analysis Toolbar. To ensure consistency throughout this lesson, we will always access the Risk Analysis Menu. However, as you become more familiar with Risk+, you may want to use the toolbar as a shortcut for some functions. Risk Analysis Menu Risk Analysis Toolbar

4. U S I N G R I S K P L U S Five Steps for Using Risk+ The Risk Analysis process consists of five steps: I. Plan your project II. Select tasks for analysis III. Enter risk parameters IV. Run the risk analysis program V. Review risk analysis results

5. U S I N G R I S K P L U S I. Plan your project To use Risk+, you must have a project plan prepared in MS Project 2000 with a complete critical path network to achieve meaningful risk analysis results. Choose File > Open. Open the demo.mpp project plan, which should be located at C:/CSSI6/Riskp20/demo.mpp unless you downloaded the Risk+ application to a different location. NOTE: The version of Risk+ on the course CD is limited to Project schedules with 25 or fewer activities.

6. U S I N G R I S K P L U S II. Select tasks for analysis Click once on Task #1 (“Widget”). Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Risk Entry Form.

7. U S I N G R I S K P L U S II. Select tasks for analysis (cont’d) Select the Preview Task check box. Note: This automatically checks the Reporting Task box as well; the Preview Task is always a Reporting Task. During the risk analysis (Step IV), Risk+ continually monitors and updates the statistics associated with the Preview Task. The Preview Task is normally a top-level summary task. Click the Next button until Task #3 (“Preliminary Design”) is displayed in the Risk Entry Form (continued on next slide). Select Preview Task box

8. U S I N G R I S K P L U S II. Select tasks for analysis (cont’d) Select the Reporting Task box for Task #3 (“Preliminary Design”). Click the Close button on the Risk Entry Form. Select Reporting Task box

9. U S I N G R I S K P L U S II. Select tasks for analysis (cont’d) Scroll down to and click once on Task #23 (“Final Testing”). Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Risk Entry Form. Select the Reporting Task box. Click the Close button on the Risk Entry Form. What happens during this step? Risk+ will collect and generate detailed statistical information for the tasks you identify in this step. Typically, only the key or high risk tasks are analyzed, rather than analyzing all the tasks in the project plan.

10. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters • Initialize Most Likely • Use the menu path: > Risk Analysis > Initialize Most Likely (see below) What happens during this step? Risk+ copies the estimated durations in the project’s Remaining Duration field to the Risk+ Most Likely Remaining Duration field. This is the quickest method of entering the most likely durations for all the tasks. The appearance of the screen may change, but you will not see a difference in the data.

11. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Quick Setup Select Quick Setup from the Risk Analysis menu. … continued on next page

12. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Quick Setup (cont’d) Select Medium Confidence. Click OK. … continued on next page

13. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Quick Setup (cont’d) What happens during this step? Quick Setup sets the minimum and maximum values for each non-summary task. The defaults are: High ± 10%, Medium ± 25%, and Low + 50%/ - 20%. The default values for Quick Setup can be modified through the Analysis Defaults menu selection (see below). The minimum and maximum parameters may also be set by using Global Edit and the Risk Entry Form (see following slides).

14. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Global Edit Use the mouse to highlight tasks # 11 (“Design Phase 2”) through 19 (“Test Unit B2”). Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Global Edit. … continued on next page

15. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Global Edit (cont’d) Enter “5” in the Set minimum to most likely field. Enter “40” in the Set maximum to most likely field. In the Apply To section, ensure Selection is selected to ensure you apply these values to only the selected tasks (Tasks # 11 – 19). In the Curvesection, select 2.Triangular. Click OK. … continued on next page

16. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Global Edit (cont’d) What happens during this step? In this step, you use Global Edit to adjust the minimum and maximum parameters for selected tasks (# 11 – 19). For these tasks, the minimum duration is now 95% of the most likely duration instead of the 75% (- 25%) set by the medium confidence default using Quick Setup (Slides # 11 – 12). Similarly, the maximum duration is now 140% of the most likely value instead of 125% (+ 25%) set by Quick Setup. These tasks have higher risk, since it is not likely they will finish earlier than expected (no more than 5% early) and are more likely to finish later than expected (up to 40% later). In a triangular shaped distribution, probabilities decrease uniformly from a peak to the edges. The peak can be located anywhere between the minimum and maximum, and is best for cases where the most likely date is not at the center of the distribution. This is one of the more commonly used distributions in cost and schedule risk analysis. NOTE: For more information on distribution curves, select Risk+ Help Topics from the Risk Analysis menu, select the Contents tab, select Using Risk+ Effectively, and then select Selecting a Probability Distribution.

17. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Risk Entry Form Use the mouse to highlight task # 21 (“Readiness Review”). Use the menu path > Risk Analysis > Risk Entry Form. … continued on next page

18. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Risk Entry Form (cont’d) In the Curve section, select 0. Fixed. Click the Close button. … continued on next page

19. U S I N G R I S K P L U S III. Enter risk parameters (cont’d) Risk Entry Form (cont’d) What happens during this step? You can use the Risk Entry Form to make changes to a single task. In this case, you set the curve type to zero (or none) which indicates there is zero risk for this task and tells Risk+ to use the most likely value regardless of what the minimum and maximum settings are.

20. U S I N G R I S K P L U S IV. Run the risk analysis program Use menu path > Risk Analysis > Risk Analysis. Enter 500 for the number ofIterations that you want the Monte Carlo simulation to perform during the risk analysis. In the Options section, select the analysis reports that you wish to see: Sensitivity Analysis Duration Analysis Critical Path Analysis Cost Analysis In the Analysis Notes section, enter any comments you have concerning this analysis. Click OK. … continued on next page

21. U S I N G R I S K P L U S IV. Run the risk analysis program (cont’d) What happens during this step? Risk+ will initialize risk data and display the Risk Analysis Status screen (see next slide). The information displayed during the risk analysis simulation is for the Preview Task you selected in Step II (Task #1). Completion date, summary statistical information, and progress status are updated at each iteration. Upon completion of the simulation, a completion date histogram will be displayed for the Preview Task (see Slide #23). You can select Close to close the Status box or it will close automatically after one minute. Once you close the Status box, completion date and/or cost histograms (depending on the options you selected) will be pasted into Microsoft Project window for the Reporting Tasks you selected (1, 3 and 23; see Slide # 24). You may terminate the simulation at any time by selecting the Cancel button with the mouse, or pressing the Space Bar. CAUTION: Do not use the ESC key to terminate the simulation! If you press the ESC key, Project will interrupt Risk+ before it has a chance to restore your durations to their original values. If you inadvertently press the ESC key, select the Continue button in the dialog box which will be displayed, then terminate the simulation as described above. … continued on next page

22. U S I N G R I S K P L U S IV. Run the risk analysis program (cont’d) Risk Analysis Status screen (simulation in progress) … continued on next page

23. U S I N G R I S K P L U S IV. Run the risk analysis program (cont’d) Risk Analysis Status screen (simulation complete) … continued on next page

24. U S I N G R I S K P L U S IV. Run the risk analysis program (cont’d) Reporting Task Histogram … continued on next page

25. U S I N G R I S K P L U S V. Analyze the results The main output of the Risk + simulation is a histogram of cost and/or completion dates for each Reporting Task. There are four main components to the histogram output: A legend at the top left giving information about the simulation you ran A legend at the top right giving summary statistical information about the figure on the left A histogram chart in the bottom left displaying the results of the simulation with a red S-shaped cumulative probability curve A tabular view of the S-shaped cumulative probability curve in the bottom right To switch back and forth between Completion Date and Cost histograms, click on the scroll bar on the right side of the histogram screen.

26. U S I N G R I S K P L U S V. Analyze the results Click on and drag the separator bar upward to expand the histogram window. Completion Date Histogram Expand the lower window with the histogram by clicking on the bar separating the histogram and the Project schedule, and dragging it upward (see below).

27. U S I N G R I S K P L U S Completion Date Histogram Click on the scroll bar to switch to the Cost Histogram See the next slide for an explanation of the Completion Date Histogram screen.

28. U S I N G R I S K P L U S V. Analyze the results Completion Date Histogram (cont’d) The earliest, expected and latest completion dates are shown (left to right respectively) along the bottom of the histogram chart. The red S-shaped curve shows the cumulative probability of completing on or before a given date (using the probability scale on the right of the chart). The standard deviation and the 95% confidence interval for the expected completion date are shown in the upper right hand corner of the screen. Below that is the completion probability table showing the cumulative probability of completion ranging from 5 – 100% in 5% increments with the date associated with each probability. These probabilities/dates align with the red S-shaped curve.

29. U S I N G R I S K P L U S Cost Histogram See the next slide for an explanation of the Cost Histogram screen.

30. U S I N G R I S K P L U S V. Analyze the results Cost Histogram The minimum, expected and most likely costs are shown (left to right respectively) along the bottom of the histogram chart. The red S-shaped curve shows the cumulative probability of completing at or less than a given cost (using the probability scale on the right of the chart). The standard deviation and the 95% confidence interval for the expected cost are shown in the upper right hand corner of the screen. Below that is the completion probability table showing the cumulative probability of completion ranging from 5 – 100% in 5% increments with the cost associated with each probability. These probabilities/costs align with the red S-shaped curve. NOTE: For additional information on analyzing simulation results, see the PowerPoint slideshow titled, “Interpreting Risk+ Results” on the Tools page.

31. U S I N G R I S K P L U S SAMPLE To print the PowerPoint slides, click on File  Print… You will then be prompted to choose your print options. Select them and click OK. Risk+ version 2.0, 5-16-05 chart 31