National blend of global models an overview
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National Blend of Global Models An Overview. Jeff Waldstreicher NOAA/NWS Eastern Region HQ Bohemia, NY. 15 th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop November 12-13, 2014 – Albany, NY. Origins of the National Model Blend. REASONING. Local / Regional Model Blend Initiatives.

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National blend of global models an overview

National Blend of Global ModelsAn Overview

Jeff Waldstreicher

NOAA/NWS Eastern Region HQ

Bohemia, NY

15th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop

November 12-13, 2014 – Albany, NY


Origins of the national model blend

Origins of the National Model Blend

REASONING

Local / Regional

Model Blend Initiatives

WRN Roadmap

NAPA Report

FUNDING

Sandy Supplemental

JPSS Gap Mitigation:

projects that make better use of existing model data


Early roots in regional blends

Early Roots in Regional Blends

  • Improvements in verification and consistency scores for the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

  • Operational Efficiencies

    BUT…

  • Sustainability of the regional solution?

  • Consistency between regional approaches and national centers?

  • Model data dissemination limitations?


Early roots in regional blends1

Early Roots in Regional Blends

Need a national system:

  • Harness full capabilities of NWP systems and national computing power

  • Full suite of ensembles

  • Employ state of the art statistical post processing techniques

    • Downscaling

    • Bias Correction

  • Enable enhanced consistency within NWS forecast information

    National Blend of Models


National model blender project

National Model Blender Project

  • Develop a set of next-generation foundational gridded guidance products for NDFD weather elements based on NWS and non-NWS model information.

FNMOC

CMC

ECWMF ENSEMBLES

GFS ENSEMBLES

ECWMF

CMC ENSEMBLES

GFS

NDFD


National model blender project objective

National Model Blender Project Objective

Improve qualityand consistency of the

NWS National Digital Forecast Database

Improve operational efficiency

6-8 hrs. of manual grid manipulation

Current NWS Forecaster

Leverage skill of guidance to assist with freeing up time to focus on DSS and hazardous weather operations


Ndfd elements

NDFD Elements


The national blend project

The National Blend Project

Create a NWS methodology for a national blend (“best”) product, beginning with the Day 3 - 8 time frame (Phase I)

Extensible to a full set of NWS deterministic and probabilistic products covering days 1-10 (Phase II).

GFS

ECWMF

ECWMF

ENSEMBLES

CMC

NAEFS


National blend project phase i

National Blend Project – Phase I

Focus on Days 3- 8, so initial development efforts are concentrated on global deterministic and ensemble systems

  • Gridded Guidance Products:

  • Max/Min Temperature

  • 3-hr Temp and Dewpoint

  • Wind speed and direction

  • Sky Cover

  • PoP

  • Precipitation Type

  • QPF


National blend project phase ii

National Blend Project – Phase II

Additional Elements:

  • Snowfall Amount

  • Wind Gusts

  • Predominant Weather

  • Others as needed*

    *Derive where it makes sense to ensure consistency, efficiency: i.e. Relative Humidity, Apparent Temperature

    Expansion to Days 1-10

  • Non-global NWP systems

    (e.g., NAM, SREF)

    Development of a suite of probabilistic guidance


National blend of global models an overview

  • The National Blend Plan

  • The National Blend will be distributed twice daily.

    • WPC will provide oversight of the National Blend for Days 3-8 to maintain meteorological and spatial consistency.

    • WFO’s will receive both objective and WPC (edited) grids.

WPC

Weather

Forecast

Offices


8 sub projects funded from sandy supplemental 2 2 million

8 Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million

  • Lead efforts of post-processing team, contribute GEFS Reforecast data sets, contribute to PoP/QPF development and new blending approaches, participate in evaluation (Hamill; OAR/ESRL/PSD)

  • Advanced MOS statistical post-processing techniques for calibration of NDFD variables and blending of model output (Gilbert; OST/MDL)

  • Expand NAEFS post-processing (Zhu; NCEP/EMC)


Sub projects funded from sandy supplemental 2 2 million

Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million

  • Accelerate URMA/RTMA improvements for use as “Analysis of Record” in model blender (DiMego/Pondeca; NCEP/EMC)

  • Perform grid-to-grid and grid-to-point verifications (Ruth; OST/MDL)

  • Data management and visualization tools to improve collaboration (Gilbert; OST/MDL)

  • Transition NCEP’s WPC blending and ensemble visualization capability to AWIPS II for the NCEP Perspective (Mainelli; NCEP/NCO)

  • Training (Mostek/Bua; COMET)


Consistency nws standard terrain

Consistency - NWS Standard Terrain

Different terrain used in downscaling systems

(AWIPS D2D display, GFE, RTMA)

GFE - RTMA Terrain

All shaded areas represent

differences greater than 100m

Example: Gridded MOS 2-m T @ 12 hours, diff > 10oF


Consistency nws standard terrain1

Consistency - NWS Standard Terrain

  • Development groups, including those responsible for post-processing and those responsible for the analysis will downscale to the same terrain in use by the WFOs in GFE.

    • Develop methodology with schedule to merge local edits into a national terrain file

    • Develop procedures to create a gridded land/water mask for MDL and EMC downscaling applications consistent with the AWIPS terrain file and marine polygons

    • Scheduled for AWIPS 14.4.1, baselined by June 2015

    • Remaining Question: How do local terrain edits get back to a national file?


National blend of global models an overview

Project Management

Project Advisor

Steve Lord

Project Manager

Kathy Gilbert

Plenary Group (Regions, NWSEO, NCEP, OST, OCWWS, SPPO, OAR)

Working level Teams

Testing and Training

(Novak and Craven)

Analysis and Verification

(Ruth)

Post Processing

(Hamill)

Dissemination

(Settelmaier and Gilbert

Outreach

(Sieveking and Gagan)


National blend of global models an overview

National Blend – Analysis & Verification

Multi-Panel Graphical Interface created by MDL:

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~blend/blender.prototype.php

  • Initial evaluations of individual components of the blend

  • Prototype National Blend grids

  • Provide feedback to RTMA developers

  • Provide feedback to Blend developers

  • Show verification of experimental blends

  • Coming Soon:

  • Ability to overlay surface observations

  • Grid-based and point-based verification statistics for prototype blends


Rtma urma evaluation

RTMA/URMA Evaluation


Blend evaluation

Blend Evaluation


National blend of global models an overview

National Blend Project - Evaluation

  • Internal Evaluation through Summer 2015 (Testing and Evaluation Team)

  • Formal Evaluation Sept 2015 – Mar 2016

  • Analysis of Accuracy, Consistency, and Workload (focused on NDFD, WPC, and National Blend)

WFO input will be key component of evaluation.


National blend project training

National Blend Project - Training

  • Overview of the National Blend

  • Components of the National Blend

  • Statistical Techniques & Procedures

  • National Blend Verification

  • National Blend Reliability

  • WPC Procedures


Questions

Questions?

…or time for some liquid blends…


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