Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 September 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Australia: Widespread rainfall continued across southern and eastern Australia during the previous week, while Western Australia received less rain. The GFS forecasts continued rainfall across the southern and eastern wheat belt locales. Southern Africa:Dry, warm weather continued across most of southern Africa during the previous week. The GFS forecasts continued dry weather. South America: Wet weather overspread much of eastern and east-central Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during the previous week. The GFS forecasts continued rainfall in these locations, as well as persisting dry weather across the remainder of southern Brazil.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. • La Niña conditions are likely to continue through early 2011. During the last 4-weeks (8 Aug – 4 Sep 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below-average between 165°E and the South American coast and more than 2.0°C below-average across small regions east of the International Date Line. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO index continues to indicate no coherent MJO signal in the tropics. The GEFS forecast continues to indicate no development of a coherent MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR The dry season continued across southern Africa during the previous three months. Pockets of below-average rainfall were observed across the southern tier of South Africa. Generally below-average precipitation was observed across central and southern South America during the winter months, particularly across portions of southern Brazil, including Parana. In contrast, above-average rainfall was observed in Uruguay and far southern Brazil, and along Brazil’s northeastern tip. Below-average rainfall was observed across far southern Western Australia during the previous 90 days, while near to aboave-average rains fell elsewhere. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation A C A C A A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2010, enhanced northerly flow on the west sides of upper-level anomalous anti-cylones promoted warmer than average temperatures at the lower levels in eastern Brazil and eastern Australia.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2010, significant anomalous rising motion (negative omega, red shading) observed throughout much of Australia was associated with widespread soaking rainfall. Another area of anomalous negative omega promoted increased rainfall across east central South America.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, widespread rainfall fell across southern and eastern Australia, covering much of the wheat belt regions. Scant rainfall was observed further west in Western Australia’s primary wheat region.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 15 days, rainfall covered all of Australia’s winter croplands. Rainfall was near- to below-average in Western Australia, but above average across the remainder of the wheat belt.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 30 days, above-average rainfall fell across Australia’s eastern croplands, while near-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s wheat belt.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the plentiful rainfall observed across most wheat belt locations. A 30 day deficit was observed, however, in portions of Western Australia’s wheat belt (top left panel).

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • Well above-average temperatures were observed across the eastern half of Australia.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (7 – 13 Sep 2010), the GFS forecasts continued rainfall across eastern and southeastern Australia. Little rainfall is forecast for Western Australia’s wheat belt.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (14 – 20 Sep 2010), continued rains are forecast across the east, with some showers possibly reaching northern portions of Western Australia’s croplands.

17. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • During the last 7 days, dry weather continued across most of southern Africa.

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, seasonable dryness prevailed across southern Africa. Below-average rainfall was observed along the South African shoreline.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across southeastern South Africa.

21. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series depict the seasonably dry weather across most of southern Africa, though deficits are growing across eastern locations.

22. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Above-average temperatures were observed across most of southern Africa.

23. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (7 – 13 Sep 2010), little to no rainfall is forecast across southern Africa.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (14 – 20 Sep 2010), continued dryness is forecast.

25. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • First Freeze in southern Argentina • GFS Forecast

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul contrasted with marked dryness in Parana and Santa Catarina during the previous week. • Wet weather overspread much of Argentina’s primary wheat growing regions, including previously dry portions of eastern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

27. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • Two weeks of wet weather across Rio Grande do Sul contrasted with dryness in Santa Catarina, Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul. • In Argentina, generally above average rainfall was observed across wheat growing regions, though dryness continued across far southern Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Below-average rainfall was observed across western and southern Brazil during the previous 30 days, with the exception of central and southern Rio Grande do Sul. • Generally near-average rainfall was observed across Argentina, with below-average rainfall continuing across far southern Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

29. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • Time series across central and eastern South America depict the generally dry weather conditions and increasing deficits in Brazil, and recent rainfall in northern Argentina (bottom left panel).

30. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Well above-average temperatures were observed across southern Brazil for a second week.

31. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Colder weather overspread much of Argentina, with hard freezes returning to far southern La Pampa and Buenos Aires.

32. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (7 – 13 Sep 2010), continued rainfall is forecast across central and northeastern Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In contrast, dry weather is expected to persist further north in Parana.

33. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (6 – 12 Sep 2010), continued rainfall is forecast in Rio Grande do Sul, with drier weather overspreading Argentina.

34. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information