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The Invisible Internet How Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our World Sponsor: Association for Corporate Growth Speaker: John B. Landry Lead Dog Ventures [email protected] Is there something going on here?. H1 2002 Forecasts

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The Invisible InternetHow Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our WorldSponsor: Association for Corporate GrowthSpeaker: John B. LandryLead Dog [email protected]


Is there something going on here
Is there something going on here?

  • H1 2002 Forecasts

    • 1 Billion Wireless Subscribers (was 2004!)

    • Wireless Phones > WW Wired Phones

    • Mobile Internet Users > PC Internet Users

    • Verizon offers 300Kbps CDMA Network

  • Nov 2000: 10B WW SMS Messages Sent

    • Growth Rate: 50% / Month!

  • 2005: 5.4B Installed Bluetooth Modules

  • Samsung Demo’s Video Cell Phone

Source: Nokia, Merrill Lynch, NTT


Another inflection point oh no not again
Another Inflection Point?Oh No.. Not Again!

  • Moore’s Law Continues

    • Processor Price Perfomance Doubles Every 18 Months

  • Gilder’s Law Continues

    • Bandwidth Multiplies 3X Every 3 Years

  • Metcalfe’s Law Continues

    • The Value of a Network Increases to the Square of the Number of Participants

  • IBM’s Law Continues

    • Storage Price Performance Doubles Every 12 Months

All These Innovations Are Now Being Applied to Wireless!



LAN

WAN

LAN

PAN

Agenda: Understanding Wireless

…for Fun & Profit

GeographyOff-Campus

Open Areas

On-Campus

Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel

Personal Space

Office, Briefcase, Person

Technology

Off-Campus

Cellular – Kilometers

On-Campus

802.11b10’s – 100’s Meters

Personal Space

BlueTooth

1-10 Meters


Mobile business drivers
Mobile Business Drivers

U.S. Mobile Worker Market

  • New Business Expansion

  • Technology Advances

    • Better mobile devices and supporting connectivity software

    • High-speed Internet access

  • Growing Mobile Solutions

  • Individual Adoption of Mobile Devices

  • Blurring of Personal/Professional Time


Shd projected growth rates
SHD Projected Growth Rates

Source: IDC

49%

CAGR

163%

CAGR

36%

CAGR

22%

CAGR


Smart phone growth soars worldwide
Smart Phone Growth Soars Worldwide!

  • Europe will pioneer launch followed quickly by Japan, AP and US

  • Smart phone products will be built first on GSM, then migrated to 2.5G and 3G wireless networks

  • Current browser phones will slow adoption of SmartPhones

  • Symbian, Microsoft, and Palm all investing heavily in this area


The off campus wireless net g2 5 and g3 networks are happening here

WAN

LAN

LAN

PAN

The “Off-Campus” Wireless ‘Net G2.5 and G3 Networks Are Happening Here!

Jumping to Conclusions? Verizon & Sprint Customers Win.. AT&T, Metricom and Non-CDMA Customers Lose


Smart handheld devices
Smart Handheld Devices

Smart Handheld

Cell Phone

Notebook

Smaller Size Larger

Info Access Usage Info Creation

Higher Mobility Lower

Phone Manufacturer Computer

Subsidized Distribution Direct


Samsung s color vod phone introduced 5 16 2001
Samsung’s Color VOD PhoneIntroduced 5/16/2001!

  • CDMA2000 1x (Verizon/Sprint PCS)

  • 144Kbps, 200,000 Colors

  • Built-in Camera, MPEG4 Decoder, Stereo Player


Handheld companions os platform battles continue
Handheld Companions OS Platform Battles Continue

  • Palm OS will continue to dominate

  • Windows CE gains share with Pocket PC

  • EPOC (Symbian) maintains niche status and expands with new form factors


Personal companions go wireless
Personal Companions Go Wireless

  • Wireless Includes Integrated (Palm VII) and Add-Ons (Novatel)

  • Over 50% wireless in 2004

  • Low-end products remains strong diluting wireless

  • Integrated voice confuses market segmentation


Samsung SPH-1300

Hybrid Wireless Digital Assistant

  • 8-bit Color Display (160x240)

  • Size: 4.9” x 2.3” x .82”

  • Weight: 5.5 oz

  • On-screen Keypad + Graffiti-Pad

  • Palm Apps + Voice Memo, Voice Dialing, Speakerphone

  • Active PDA while on phone!

  • Shipping: September 2001

  • Price: “about same as Palm PDA”


Handspring’s VisorPhone

Palm OS World-Phone & Wireless Modem

  • A Better Mobile Phone?

    • Dial from Address Book

    • Speed Dial with a tap!

    • Caller ID and Log

    • Simple Conference Calling

  • Wireless Internet Access

    • 14.4 GSM Cell Modem

    • eMail & Web Surfing

  • Short Message Service

    • SMS Messages Booming

    • Pager-like Messages


The key inhibitors ux and speed
The Key Inhibitors: UX and Speed

  • The UX (User Experience) Lessons

    • Microsoft went nowhere until Windows

    • WWW went nowhere till Mosaic

    • AOL, Yahoo are an even better UX!

  • Mobile Data Success Requires a Dramatically Better (and faster) UX!

    • Input Methods:

      • Keys, Keypads (RIM, Ericsson’s Chatboard, Handwriting Reco, TouchScreen, Speech Reco

    • Output Displays:

      • 100 x 65 large graphic

      • 120 x 100 large graphics 4 - 8 grey levels

      • 160 x 120 256 colors

    • or a BFHRC Display using Bluetooth!


The on campus wireless net office home school airport hotel
The “On-Campus” Wireless ‘Net Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel

  • IEEE 802.11b Wireless LANs

    • 2.4ghz Band – 11Mbps

    • Viable Alternative to Wired LANS

    • Components

      • Access Point / Gateway Bridge

      • Client: PCMCIA or Integrated

    • Your Home LAN Infrastructure?

  • IEEE 802.11a Wireless LANs

    • 5ghz Band - 54Mbps!

    • Shorter Range, More Power

    • Same Money.. But No Interoperability!

    • Cisco’s Acquisition of Radiata

    • Wireless Backbone Networks?


Toshiba’s Libretto

Shape of things to come?.. the 'small book'

  • 600mhz Crusoe CPU with 128/256MB RAM, 10-30GB HD, 10" TFT screen (1280x600), Windows ME, 1 IEEE1394 (FireWire/iLink) video port, PCMCIA Type II slot, 56Kb modem, LaLaVoice Japanese speech recognition software, 2 USB ports, and Bluetooth wireless, 3.5-4.5 hour battery


Microsoft’s Tablet PC

The Concept of “Tablet Computing”

  • Windows Computer (Whistler)

  • Word, Excel, PowerPoint, IE

  • Primary Computer w/ stored eMail, Calendar, Databases, etc.

  • Writing Rec, but Ink as Ink!

  • Sounds like Pen Computing?

    • Battery Life

    • Display Resolution

    • Recognition

    • Memory

  • Wireless 802.11 & Bluetooth


Electrolux’s ScreenFridge

Why? The fridge is the natural place for communication in every family.

  • Video Family Post-It Notes

  • eMail & Web Surfing

  • Narrowcasted News

  • Customized Radio

  • Home Security

  • Food Management

  • Digital Cook Book / Timer

  • Server?


Home Wireless IP Network

Fridge

Server

PC

MS

X Box

MP3

Appl

Monitor

Rec/AMP

broadcast

TV

HDTVTuner

CATV

Modem

CATV Network

Internet

Home LANs & Convergence?

  • Fridge Server:

    • Store & Deliver Audio, Photos, Video

    • Encode/Store Broadcast Content (TIVO, Replay)

  • Computers:

    • PCs, Game Consoles,

    • Appliances

  • HDTV Monitors

  • TV:

    • Players of Encoded & CATV content


Reverse Mobility Moving the Computation… Not the Computer

Computational

Napster… Sell / Donate your idle cycles!

Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

THINK is a computer-aided drug design program that models interaction between potential drug molecules and a target protein that is involved in the growth of cnacer. Finding positive interactions… could lead to a cure.”


Bluetooth no flash in the pan

WAN

LAN

LAN

PAN

Bluetooth: No Flash in the PAN!

  • Watch Out! Massive Growth Ahead!

    • Short range wireless technology

    • Small size, low cost ($5 target)

    • Up to 720 kbps (also supports voice)

    • Low power consumption

    • Massive industry support

    • Spec (1.1) should freeze NOW.. And then the fun begins!

  • Bluetooth enables

    • Wireless connectivity

    • Data synchronization

    • Seamless service


Bluetooth enabled devices projected annual shipments
Bluetooth Enabled Devices:Projected Annual Shipments

  • Industry Convergence

    • 9 Promoter Companies

      • 3Com, Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Lucent, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia and Toshiba

    • 2000+ Adopter Co’s

  • Tech Specs

    • Range 10/100m

    • Gross bit rate 1Mbps

    • Max Asymmetric data rate - 723kbps

    • Max voice channels per link - 3

    • Max Piconets - 8


Bluetooth application examples why did the cell phone call the microwave
Bluetooth Application ExamplesWhy did the cell phone call the microwave?

Updating Navigation equipment from computer route planner

Synchronisation of portable devices with desktop PC

Headset to phone connection

Access to phone book from PDA/HPC

Connection of computer to mouse, video camera, still camera...

IBM’s Linux Watch


Camera: Custom CMOS sensor, 100 FPSProcessor: Proprietary ARM-based ASIC at 70 MHzCommunication device: Bluetooth transceiverBattery: TBAInk cartridge: Standard DIN 16654Illumination: IR LEDResolution: 0.03 mmWeight: 45g

Paper quality: StandardPrinting technique: Standard offsetPattern ink: Standard blackDot spacing:Nominally 0.3 mm (0.01 inch.)Total pattern size:73 000 000 000 000 letter size pagesMinimum readable pattern area:2x2 mm (0.08x0.08 inch)

Extreme Bluetooth: Anoto Revolutionizing Writing Forever!!


In Summary

The New Wireless Internet, which extends the reach and capabilities of the wired Internet, will be the driver of another boom in innovation and wealth creation.

Once again this massively disruptive technology will upset traditional business models and wreak havoc on conventional assumptions about work, home, family life and education.

You’ve been warned!


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