1 / 28

Local and Regional Procurement Learning Alliance

Local and Regional Procurement Learning Alliance. 7. Market Data MARKET SELECTION. Are (some of) the secondary data suitable?. Objective: Identify markets from which to collect primary data Approach: Compare what secondary data are available with what is needed

kamea
Download Presentation

Local and Regional Procurement Learning Alliance

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Local and Regional Procurement Learning Alliance 7. Market DataMARKET SELECTION

  2. Are (some of) the secondary data suitable? • Objective: Identify markets from which to collect primary data • Approach: Compare what secondary data are available with what is needed • Prepare a list of all distribution communities, all source communities, and major markets • Some communities have more than one market • In these cases, monitor the main retail market • Within each market category, determine whether any candidate markets overlap with secondary data

  3. Are the data similar (enough) to what the country office needs? • Key requirements for matching secondary data to agency’s data needs: 1st: Check commodity characteristics are the same (or similar) 2nd: Confirm secondary prices are clearly identifiable as retail or wholesale and that you understand what definitions the agency is using 3rd: Understand what sales units or volumes are collected for different trader types (e.g., $/kg; $/bucket; $/sack) 4th: Try to make sure timing of price collection is the same

  4. Are the data similar (enough) to what the country office needs cont.? • Commodities with characteristics that do not precisely match your delivered product’s characteristics can perhaps be used as proxy data • Compare • Color and size • Processing / condition • Produced within source country • Quality (focus on observable quality differences, i.e., do prices vary by quality?) • Minor variations in quality, processing, color or size are fine • Note and report the differences between the delivered commodity and the commodity with secondary data

  5. Are (some of) the secondary data suitable? cont. • Common errors associated with combining secondary and primary data are: • Comparing retail and wholesale series • Comparing raw commodities and processed products • Failing to convert prices to common currency and common unit of account • Using different frequency data or not matching up periods correctly • Failing to clarify whether prices are day-specific observations or period averages or whether prices are trader-specific or trader averages within a market

  6. Part 1: Determine how many markets to monitor

  7. Within each market category: take a sentinel site approach • Rarely feasible to monitor all markets • Sentinel sites are composed of a core set of markets, regularly monitored • Markets are selected by country offices, based first on overlap with secondary data and then selected by community type (remote or less remote) • Selected sentinel sites should be representative of communities • How to select sentinel sites within each market category is discussed below

  8. How many markets within each market category to monitor? *Most pilots will not have counterfactuals

  9. How many markets within each market category to monitor? • The number of markets to monitor will vary by pilot • The number of markets to monitor may vary by commodity • Some commodities have more secondary data than other commodities • Competitively procured commodities will need to be monitored across fewer markets compared to non-competitively procured commodities • The following slides list number of markets by pilot type • The next section discusses how to select markets within each category

  10. Regional Procurement Competitive, noncompetitive Recipient Country (up to 10 mkts) Central markets (up to 5): •Capital city consumer market •Major import/export market •Largest market in each distribution area •Urban or regional consumer markets Recipient/destination markets (up to 5): •Remote: 2 - 3 mkts •Less remote: 2 – 3 mkts Source Country (up to 5 mkts) Central markets (up to 5): •Capital city consumer market •Major import/export market •Largest market in area(s) where procurement is most likely to occur •Urban or regional consumer markets Smaller source markets: •No additional markets required

  11. Local Procurement Competitive, Non-competitive, Vouchers and Cash • Source/Recipient Country (same) (up to 10 mkts) • Central markets (up to 5): • Capital city • Largest market(s) in each distribution area • Largest market(s) in each source area • Major import / export market • Consumer market in major urban area • Recipient/destination markets (up to 5): • •Remote: 2 - 3 mkts • •Less remote: 2 – 3 mkts

  12. Local Procurement Limited Competitive (e.g., contracting with smallholders) • Source/Recipient Country (same) (up to 15 mkts) • Central markets (up to 5): • Consumer market in capital city • Largest market(s) in each distribution area • Largest market(s) in each source area • Major import/export market • Consumer market in major urban area • Source markets (up to 5) Recipient markets (up to 5): • •Remote markets: 2-3 •Remote markets: 2-3 • •Less remote markets: 2-3 •Less remote markets: 2-3 • OR, Ranked by probability of procurement: 5

  13. Local or Regional Procurement Competitive, Vouchers and Cash, Limited Competitive with in-depth evaluation Counterfactual Markets (up to 10 mkts / communities) Counterfactual source markets (up to 5 mkts): Markets that share the following attributes with LRP source markets: • Similar agro-ecological zones • Roughly the same population • Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market Counterfactual recipient communities (up to 5 communities): Communities that share the following attributes with LRP recipient communities: • Similar agro-ecological zones • Roughly the same population • Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market • Similar interventions to the matched recipient communities

  14. Part 2: Select markets to monitor

  15. Frequency of data collection • All data ought to be collected at least monthly • If secondary data are collected… • … monthly: collect primary data at least monthly, ideally on the same day or in the same week • …weekly or biweekly: try to collect primary data on same days as reflected in secondary data • … daily: select certain days of the month (or week) and collect primary data on those days as well • If secondary data are not available, collect primary data at least monthly, preferably weekly or biweekly

  16. Selecting central markets for local procurement, vouchers and cash • In pilots where source and recipient countries are the same, several central markets will overlap. Include a total of five: • Consumer market in major capital city • Major import / export market • Largest market(s) in each distribution area • Largest market(s) in each source area • Note: for competitive tenders, tracking additional, smaller markets beyond these five is unnecessary

  17. Regional Procurement: selecting central markets in the source country • List up tofive major/central markets in source country, including: • Consumer market in capital city • Major import/export market • Largest market(s) in area where procurement is most likely to occur • Non-competitive tenders: source market • Competitive tenders: major urban market • Other central consumer markets in urban or regional centers

  18. Regional Procurement: Selecting central markets in the recipient country • List up tofive major/central markets in recipient country, including: • Central consumer market in capital city • Major import/export market • Largest market(s) in each distribution area • Other central consumer markets in urban or regional centers

  19. Comparing selected central markets with secondary data • Compare your list of preferred source- and recipient-country central markets with the central markets reflected in your secondary data • Check whether commodities in secondary data are the commodities to be distributed • Check whether the data are retail and/or wholesale prices • When secondary data are available for markets and commodities of interest: use these data to conserve time & resources

  20. Source market selection for competitive and noncompetitive procurement and vouchers and cash • Competitive procurement, noncompetitive procurement, vouchers and cash: monitor central markets only • Traders are likely to operate in major central markets • Central markets capture competitive prices • No need to monitor additional (smaller) source markets

  21. Source market selection for limited competitive procurement • Limited competitive procurement: • For each commodity, monitor the markets from where it is likely to be sourced • If different commodities are noncompetitively sourced from different markets, repeat below process for each commodity • Use table on following slide to track information for each commodity

  22. Selecting source communities for limited competitive (Check one) • 1st: list all likely source markets in column 1 • 2nd: mark whether secondary retail and wholesale price data exist for each market • 3rd: assess each market’s remoteness: • Use access to paved roads or a daily market as the indicator • Remoteness is a proxy for spatial integration of remote communities with distant markets • Remoteness is a relative and context-specific concept • Greater remoteness often means higher risk of price variability • OR 3rd: when procuring from a subset of pre-identified markets, rank markets by probability of procurement

  23. Source market selection for limited competitive procurement cont. • Objective: identify five source markets to monitor by commodity • First, randomly select from those that have secondary data • Randomly select up to 2-3 markets from list of remote markets with secondary data • Randomly select up to 2-3 markets from list of less-remote markets with secondary data • OR, rank by procurement probability, if procuring from a subset of pre-identified source markets • Even incomplete secondary data is a starting point • Next, if more markets are still needed to reach the total, randomly choose among remaining for primary data

  24. Selecting recipient (destination) communities (Check one) • Similar approach as selecting source markets for noncompetitive procurement • Will not vary by commodity • Fill in the table above • List all recipient communities • Identify communities as remote or less remote

  25. Selecting recipient (destination) communities • From the table, randomly select • 2-3 communities with secondary data and are remote • 2-3 communities with secondary data and are less remote • If there are not enough communities with adequate secondary data, randomly select recipient communities for primary data collection, by category of remoteness • In each community selected, monitor the main retail market

  26. Selecting counterfactual source markets • Only required in noncompetitive tendering processes with in-depth evaluation component • Counterfactual source communities should not have other agency programs or projects in place • Using secondary data, identify up to 5 markets that share the following characteristics with LRP source markets: • Similar agro-ecological zones • Roughly same population • Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market • Wherever secondary data are missing, identify communities that have the same characteristics as the source markets, and collect primary data

  27. Selecting counterfactual recipient communities • Counterfactual recipient communities receive transoceanic food aid • Should have similar interventions as the matched community (e.g., both distribute in school feeding programs) • Using secondary data, select up to 5 communities with roughly same characteristics as pilot communities • Similar agro-ecological zones • Roughly same population • Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market • Follow same process as for counterfactual source communities to identify secondary data • Primary data collection may be necessary

  28. Selecting Markets to Monitor Exercise: • Draw a map of your country • Identify on the map the markets where you are procuring each commodity; write a list of these markets • Identify on the map where you are distributing the commodities; write a list of these communities/markets

More Related