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Investing in Seafood Favourable outlook & attractive valuation. Food for Valuation David Kerstens +4477 1781 6277 [email protected] London Seafood Investment Forum, 19 November 2013. Agenda. Overview publicly listed seafood sector Company rankings Favourable outlook

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Investing in seafood favourable outlook attractive valuation

Investing in SeafoodFavourable outlook & attractive valuation

Food for Valuation

David Kerstens

+4477 1781 6277

[email protected]

London Seafood Investment Forum, 19 November 2013


Agenda

Agenda

  • Overview publicly listed seafood sector

  • Company rankings

  • Favourable outlook

  • Attractive valuation

  • Risk factors

  • Q&A

Food for Valuation


Overview publicly listed seafood sector

Overview publicly listed seafood sector

  • The new IntraFish Industry Report ‘Investing in Seafood’ analyses the 50 largest publicly listed seafood companies in the world;

  • The publicly listed seafood sector is still relatively small, with a combined market cap of only €24 billion (compared to almost €300 billion for the European Food majors);

  • The publicly listed seafood sector generates €39bn in revenues, accounting for 24% of the global seafood sector;

  • There are large differences in the financial performance between different seafood segments, as well as between geographies.

Breakdown seafood sector market cap by segment

Breakdown seafood sector market cap by geography

Source: Food for Valuation

Source: Food for Valuation

Food for Valuation


Company rankings

Company rankings

Food for Valuation


Company rankings continued

Company rankings - continued

Food for Valuation


Favourable outlook

Favourable outlook

  • Continuing strong projected revenue growth of 12% per annum for the next two years, in line with growth over the last two years, but this time around increasingly driven by higher prices;

  • As a result, profitability is expected to improve strongly, with EBIT margins almost doubling from 6.9% last year to 13.4% this year, and further increasing to 14.7% next year;

  • Return on invested capital is projected to recover from 5.4% last year, to 9.9% this year, broadly in line with the cost of capital, and to 11.3% next year.

Seafood sector EBIT margin and ROIC development (%)

Source: Food for Valuation

Food for Valuation


Favourable outlook1

Favourable outlook

ROIC development by seafood segment (%)

Source: Food for Valuation

Food for Valuation


Valuation

Valuation

  • The valuation of the seafood sector has increased by 14% so far this year, mainly driven by the salmon farmers, and by 56% since the start of 2010, mainly driven by fish feed producers;

  • The seafood sector is now trading at 7.0x EBIT and 10.3x EPS projected for FY14E, which is relatively low compared to the consumer sector at 16.5x EPS projected for FY14E.

    • The seafood sector is still relatively small and less well known with financial institutions;

    • There is a relatively high cyclicality of earnings, outweighing favourable long-term demographic trends;

    • The sector is trading at 10.3x EPS projected for FY14E, but at 14.8x based on mid-cycle EPS.

  • ‘Investing in Seafood’ covers the top-50 publicly listed global seafood companies, with full financial models, detailed company profiles and investment cases.

Seafood sector performance & valuation overview by segment

Source: Food for Valuation

Food for Valuation


Valuation continued

Valuation - continued

Food for Valuation


Risk factors

Risk factors

  • High share price volatility

    • Volatility is caused by commodity price cycles, with salmon prices moving up or down by over 50% in less than a year.

  • Low earnings predictability

    • Earnings are highly sensitive to salmon prices, which have proven difficult to forecast. A change of NOK 1/kg in the salmon price changes operational EBIT by NOK350m, corresponding to more than 50% of operational EBIT in 2012.

  • Relatively high financial leverage

    • Farmers tend to overinvest in the upturn of the cycle, resulting in high financial leverage when the cycle turns. For example, balance sheets of seafood stocks looked stretched with net debt at 4.8x EBITDA at the end of 2012.

  • Currency transaction risk

    • Marine Harvest farms the majority of its salmon in Norway, whereas the majority of revenues are generated in the Eurozone, causing substantial NOK/EUR transaction exposure.

  • Fish diseases and other biological issues

    • Fish diseases and other biological issues are likely to continue to negatively impact operating costs and investor sentiment towards seafood stocks.

  • Environmental and food safety concerns

    • Fish farming sometimes is criticized from an environmental or food safety perspective, which may negatively affect consumption and investor sentiment.

  • Economic factors

    • Demand for salmon as a relatively more expensive protein source maybe negatively affected in a weaker economic environment.

Food for Valuation


Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this presentation, but legal responsibility cannot be accepted for errors, omissions, or for damages resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation.

Food for Valuation


Investing in seafood favourable outlook attractive valuation

Thank you!

Questions?

Food for Valuation


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