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2012 Elections and Public Opinion

2012 Elections and Public Opinion. Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli. Center for the Study of Local Issues: Semi-annual survey. Conducted each March and October Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers

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2012 Elections and Public Opinion

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  1. 2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

  2. Center for the Study of Local Issues:Semi-annual survey • Conducted each March and October • Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers • Contents: • Benchmark questions on the economy, most important problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics • Variable questions on current policy choices and major events

  3. Plan – focus on the election • What are current trends • Most important problem facing residents • Right/wrong direction • Perceptions of the economy • Economic circumstances • How are these trends related to choices for president and ballot/referenda items • Where are we in the election nationally • Discussion!

  4. Most Important Problem Taxes

  5. County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘12

  6. Right/Wrong and Partisanship:% saying “Right”

  7. Obama Vote by Right/Wrong Direction: County, State and USA

  8. Economic Conditions Excellent + Good: Fall ‘06 to Fall ‘12

  9. Obama Vote by Perceptions of the Economy - County, State, USA

  10. Cost of living indicators: S ‘08-F ‘12

  11. Other economic indicators

  12. Obama Vote by Economic Circumstances – F ‘12

  13. Consumer Confidence: F ‘11 – F ‘12

  14. Obama Vote and Consumer confidence

  15. Obama Vote by Candidate Attributes

  16. Obama Vote by Demographics

  17. Presidential Job Approval

  18. Most important issue by candidate

  19. Ballot Items: Referenda

  20. Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

  21. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

  22. County Vote for President

  23. Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll

  24. Map of Battleground States NH Wis Iowa Ohio Nev. Va. Colo. NC Fl.

  25. Vote Estimates

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