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Qatar: The best is yet to come. Steve Brice Regional Head of Research Middle East and South Asia. Overview. Outstanding medium term prospects Securing the future Realising the country’s potential. Outstanding medium-term prospects. Nobody better positioned than Qatar.

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Presentation Transcript

Qatar:

The best is yet to come

Steve Brice

Regional Head of Research

Middle East and South Asia


Overview
Overview

  • Outstanding medium term prospects

  • Securing the future

  • Realising the country’s potential



Nobody better positioned than qatar
Nobody better positioned than Qatar

Bubble size = size of economy

The most dynamic Middle East economy

Resource rich and reform orientated

Qatar

Jordan

Bahrain

UAE

Oman

Lebanon

SaudiArabia

Reform

Kuwait

Egypt

Iran

Libya

Syria

Hydrocarbon resources

Source: SCB


Development of gas reserves key near term
Development of gas reserves key near-term

Total oil and gas production, ‘000s of barrels of oil equivalent

Source: QP, QNB, SCB



Non hydrocarbon balance key
Non-hydrocarbon balance key

Source: QCB, IIF, SCB


Fiscal targets consistent with inter generational equity
Fiscal targets consistent with inter-generational equity

Policy goal Long-term oil price Target non-hydrocarbon assumption fiscal deficit

USD per barrel % of 2004 GDP (QAR bn)

Maintain constant oil 22 -30% [-31]

and gas wealth 50 -54% [-56]

80 -88% [-91]

Maintain constant oil 22 -4% [-4]

and gas wealth per capita 50 -9% [-9]

80 -15% [-16]

=

=

=

=

=

=

*For description of all assumptions see text

Source: SCB


Why bother
Why bother?

2002 fuel shares of total final consumption (World)

Scope for alternative fuel growth

* geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc

Source: IEA



Hydrocarbon revenues as a catalyst
Hydrocarbon revenues as a catalyst

Exploitative economy

Exploratative economy

Exploitingenergyresources

Exploring energy resources

Exploring economic potential

  • Crude oil/gas production

  • Petrochemicals

  • Extractive industries

  • Energy research and development

  • New energy technologies

  • Innovative energy industries

  • Dynamic research and development centre

  • Clusters of innovative companies in the energy and non-energy sectors


Adding value to natural resources
Adding value to natural resources

Value Added Across the Petrochemical Production Chain ( USD / Barrel )

Move downstream to create value

Tertiary petrochemicals

(e.g. plastic bags)

+>200

Secondary petrochemicals

(e.g. HDPE)

+132

Primary petrochemicals

(e.g. Ethylene)

+36

Refining

(e.g. Naphtha)

+3

Crude oil

Source: Saudi Arabia General Investment Authority (SAGIA)


Energy research hub vs gas producer
Energy research hub vs gas producer?

Recognised research but commercial potential not tapped


Current skill set weak in some key areas
Current skill set weak in some key areas

No. of students

Source: Qatar Planning Council


Region lags behind smaller economies in converted r d
Region lags behind smaller economies in converted R&D

GCC R&D Comparison

Number of Patents filed in the US, by inventor country (1977-2003)

Source: SCB, US Patent Office


Focus on non oil sector to bear fruit
Focus on non-oil sector to bear fruit

Nominal GDP trends, y/y

Non-hydrocarbon growth has been trending down

Source: SCB


Qatar can be competitive outside of energy
Qatar can be competitive outside of energy

Index, 10 is very appropriate and 1 is not appropriate

Diversification

Source: SCB


Scenario analysis of gdp per capita
Scenario analysis of GDP per capita

USD 000’s

VI

V

III

IV

II

I

Source: SCB


Summary
Summary

  • Outstanding medium term prospects

  • Securing the future

  • Realising the country’s potential


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