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FAA System-Wide Modeling

FAA System-Wide Modeling. Uses and Shortfalls. If we can’t model the current system, how can we model this thing?. NextGen. Overview. Uses of System-Wide Models NextGen Overview Modeling Shortcomings ATM Domain Airport Terminal En Route Oceanic Flow Control

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FAA System-Wide Modeling

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  1. FAA System-Wide Modeling Uses and Shortfalls

  2. If we can’t model the current system, how can we model this thing? NextGen Overview • Uses of System-Wide Models • NextGen Overview • Modeling Shortcomings • ATM Domain • Airport • Terminal • En Route • Oceanic • Flow Control • Airline Operations Center (AOC) • Model Use

  3. NAS Strategy Simulator AwSim/AERALIB NASPAC SIMMOD RDSIM/ADSIM ATO Modeling Suite

  4. Cost-Benefit Analysis Development Requirements Analysis Performance Assessment Uses of System-Wide Models

  5. Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.) • Portfolio optimization The Challenge: To select an optimum portfolio of aviation investments so as to maximize the overall economic return, subject to a budget constraint. Consumer Surplus Environmental Costs Producer Surplus Government Costs

  6. Model Expectations Target - D S System Demand Performance Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.) System-wide performance assessment “The Performance Loop”

  7. 7 Solution Sets Increase collaborative ATM Increase flexibility in the terminal environment Increase arrivals/departures at high-density airports Initiate trajectory-based operations Reduce weather impacts Improve safety, security, and environmental performance Transform facilities Air Traffic Operations 43 Mid-Term Capabilities NextGen Aircraft & Operator Requirements Airport Development Capital Programs ADS-B ERAM SWIM TFM-M DataComm TMA NNEW WAAS NAS Voice Switch LAAS AircraftRoadmap 2 Solution Sets 35 OEP airports 15 metropolitan areas NextGen Implementation Plan

  8. TBO Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

  9. HiDensity Solution Set Increase Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports

  10. Flex Terminal Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Area

  11. Collaborative ATM Improve Collaborative ATM

  12. Weather Reduce Weather Impact

  13. Airport Modeling Shortfalls • Simplistic airport capacity • Single airport configuration • Convection weather • Airport closure • Departure release • Surface congestion • Taxiways • Gates • De-icing • Tail number tracking • Delay propagation • Passenger tracking • Connections Coupled

  14. Terminal Modeling Shortfalls • Simplistic terminal airspace • Airport coupling • Terminal capacity • Aircraft trajectories • Route of flight • STARs • DPs • Convection weather • Re-routing/arrival gate closure

  15. En Route Modeling Shortfalls • Static sector capacity • Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP) • Static sector definition • Response to sector overload • Re-routing • Metering • Time-based metering • Miles-In-Trail (MIT) • Convective weather • Dynamic sector capacity • Tactical re-routes • Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/Tailored Arrivals

  16. Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls • Oceanic airspace!

  17. Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls • Ground stops/ground delays • Airport constraints (GDPs) • Airspace constraints (AFPs) • Strategic re-routes • Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP) • Canadian Off-load

  18. AOC Modeling Shortfalls • Cancellations • Ground Delay Program (GDP) response • Re-routes

  19. Model Use Shortfalls • Ease of Set-up • Monte Carlo replication • Demand • Flight schedules • OD pairs • Equipment • Aircraft performance • Routings • Capacities/airport configurations • TFM • etc. • Visualization • Validation

  20. Questions?

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