Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?. Simon Pirani Senior Research Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy Studies International Security Forum, Lviv, 16 April 2010. MAIN POINTS. The impact of economic crisis on the European gas market
Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?
Senior Research Fellow
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
International Security Forum, Lviv, 16 April 2010
Changes in the European marketOil-linked prices may not be with us forever
Natural gas imports to OECD Europefirst nine months of the year, Bcm
Russia lost market share
A very different outlook for Russia and Gazprom
Worries about a ‘supply squeeze’ have gone. Now there are questions about long-term demand. Gazprom’s big projects are being delayed ...
Gazprom will face competition in Europe from LNG...
Russia’s dominance in central Asia has been undermined by the Turkmenistan-China pipeline ...
In Russia, Gazprom is under pressure from the oil companies and Novatek ...
Ukraine after the January 2009 ‘gas war’
Russian gas export capacity to Europe up to 2015: transit via Ukraine could be reduced
Demand destruction concentrated in industry, but slowly recovering since the spring
Ukraine’s 2009 gas imports problem was converted into a cash problem
* Source: energy ministry, Naftogaz. ** Assuming oil at $70/bbl
... the IMF counted $3bn Naftogaz operating deficit as part of Ukraine’s fiscal shortfall
But what will happen in 2010?
TRANSIT AND STORAGE:
How could a consortium work to the benefit of all?
Could Ukraine become a storage provider?
In industry, it will depend on sourcing investment
Municipal services reform is hard (in Russia too)
What about price reform, and Naftogaz structure?
INCREASING GAS PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE:
What type of investment environment?
The more transparency, the better