2.4. Integrating climate change into forestry: Exercise on a conceptual framework

1. 2.4. Integrating climate change into forestry: Exercise on a conceptual framework Bruno Locatelli, CIRAD-CIFOR

2. Conceptual Framework • In the case of the forestry programs you know, how could climate change be included? • Mitigation & Adaptation • Afforestation-reforestation, avoided deforestation, bio products and bio energy, environmental services, water, soil… • Carbon markets, funding redistribution, contracts with communities, institutional strengthening • How could we conceptualize the linkages between forestry programs and climate change? • A conceptual framework that could be applied any where and help us to define what to do

3. Group Work • Objective: To analyzing the links between the main forest and climate change issues in the case of a specific program. Questions to consider: What are the opportunities for developing climate change-related program activities in a forestry program, depending on the context and on the usual program activities? What would be the impacts of these activities on project outcomes and on climate change?

4. Method for Group Work (1/3) • Cognitive Mapping (or concept mapping, cause mapping, or mental model) • For identifying and structuring problems perceived by groups or individuals • First step • Brainstorming forlisting main issues • Any issues….can be related to the localcontext, to climate change,to policy, or other topics Example taken from Giupponi et al. (2008) and related to water management Giupponi et al., 2008. Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research. FEEM, Italy.

5. Method for Group Work (2/3) • Second step: • Clustering elements • Third step: • Representing causal links Example taken from: Giupponi et al., 2008. Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research.

6. Method for Group Work (3/3) • Fourth step: • Explaining causal links • Results: • A graphical network consisting of nodes representing concepts, and arrows representing causal relationships among these concepts(Van Kouwen et al., 2007) food systems example copied from Downing and Ziervogel, 2004 Downing T., G. Ziervogel, 2004, Choosing and adapting tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessment, Training materials produced for ENDA, SEI Oxford, UK. Van Kouwen et al., 2007. Interactive Problem Structuring with Integrated Coastal Zone Management Stakeholders. FEEM, Italy.

7. Case example • Project context: • Watersheds with high population density and poverty problems, • Low forest cover except in the higher areas, • High pressure on agricultural lands + Deforestation • Problems of water quality and regularity for downstream users, • Lack of forest law enforcement and incentives to reforest • Current land-use activities: • Agriculture + forest conversion • More sustainable land-use activities to be promoted: • Agroforestry, Reforestation, and Forest conservation

8. Discussion of case example • How CC issues can help? • Adaptation • Interest of downstream users in having better water • Interest of local government in reducing vulnerability • Mitigation • Possibility of financing activities with carbon markets • What would be the outcomes of these activities? • How would these activities help to achieve projects goals? • Climate change mitigation and adaptation • Other project goals (poverty reduction, biodiversity conservation?)

9. Increasing Agriculture, Population Dynamics Deforestation PovertyAlleviation Poverty Improving and Diversifying Livelihoods BiodiversityConservation Governance Failures Conserving Existing Forest Area Increasing Forest Area Forest Conservation Reforestation Increasing Carbon per Hectare Agroforestry Increased Carbon Storage (Mitigation) Enhancing Watershed, Soil and WaterConservation. REDD Maintained Carbon Storage (Mitigation) Carbon Markets Reduced Local Vulnerability (Adaptation) Need to Decrease Social Vulnerability To be defined Context Activities Outcomes Project Goals Baseline Land Use Baseline Trends Non climate-relatedgoals Improved Land Use Climate-relatedgoals Climate-RelatedOpportunities Project Strategic Activities Synergies Uncertain relationships Conflicts

10. Conserving Existing Forest Area Land Use Monitoring Increasing Forest Area Land Use Monitoring Increasing Carbon per Hectare Carbon Monitoring Enhancing Watershed, Soil and WaterConservation. Watershed Monitoring Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (ex-situ) Life Cycle Assessment Activities Context Outcomes Project Goals Indicators Baseline Trends Baseline Land Use Non climate-relatedgoals Food and Biofuel Markets Subsistence Agriculture,Livestock Raising, Commercial Crop Production, Biofuel production Improving and Diversifying Livelihoods PovertyAlleviation Population Dynamics Livelihood Assessment BiodiversityConservation Poverty Deforestation Governance Failures Climate-relatedgoals Improved Land Use Increased Carbon Storage (Mitigation) Climate-RelatedOpportunities Forest Conservation International Discussions on REDD Sustainable Forest Management Maintained Carbon Storage (Mitigation) Forest Rehabilitation, Reforestation Funds and National Initiatives on REDD Agroforestry Reduced Local Vulnerability (Adaptation) Sustainable Bio Energy Production CDM Carbon Voluntary Markets Project Strategic Activities DecreasedEmissions by Energy (Mitigation) Institutional Strengthening Need to Decrease Social Vulnerability Capacity Building Contracts with and Funding Redistribution to Communities Synergies Local Demand for Ecosystem Services, PES Uncertain relationships Monitoring Conflicts

11. Thank you for your attention