2012 elections nation state and county
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2012 Elections: Nation, State and County. Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli. Goals. Presidential Election – overview of 2012 results Raw vote count, Electoral College Change from 2008

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2012 Elections: Nation, State and County

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2012 Elections: Nation, State and County

Dan Nataf, Ph.D.

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College

www2.aacc.edu/csli


Goals

  • Presidential Election – overview of 2012 results

    • Raw vote count, Electoral College

    • Change from 2008

    • Pollster tracking polls and predictions

    • Exit polls – voter coalitions for Obama and Romney

    • Lessons – Democratic Lean…

  • Maryland

    • Presidential vote

    • Referenda results

    • Lessons: Blue Maryland

  • Anne Arundel County

    • Presidential vote

    • Referenda vote

    • Lessons: Purple County


National Results


National Results

Obama raw vote margins:

2008: 9,522,083

2012: 4,970,644

(2012 vs. 2008: down 4,551,439)


Popular Vote: 1952-2012


Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012


How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4

Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters

Oct 11

Oct 3


How did the pollsters do:Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)


Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1


Exit Poll: Demographics


Exit Poll: Issues


National Lessons

  • Presidential elections: Trending Democratic, regional divide, maximize base turnout

  • Democratic issues: pro-choice, health reform, foreign policy, tax rich, immigration reform

  • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30

  • Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women,

  • Uncertain: Suburbanites, Catholics (economy/inflation)

  • Republican issues: pro-life, no tax increases, less spending/deficit, no immigration reform

  • Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+

  • Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural, white, southern


Maryland: Presidential Results – Solidly Democratic


Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting


Redistricting by County, % Supporting


Dream Act by County, % Supporting


Support by County

0.0 to 0.31

0.32 to 0.40

0.41 to 0.47

0.48 to 0.53

0.54 to 0.6

0.61 to 0.70

0.71 to 1.0

Casino Approval by County


Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting


Lessons for State Elections

  • Democratic hegemony remains unchanging

  • Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City

  • Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County

  • Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester


Anne Arundel County – Council Districts


Anne Arundel County State Legislative Districts


Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012


AA County Election Lessons

  • County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream Act, Casinos)

  • Maximum turnout election results in very closely divided electorate

  • Local Democratic candidates – can they run as liberal as state/national party/candidates?

  • Local Republican candidates – how conservative can they be?

  • Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2


AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics


Dream Act by Demographic Variables


Same Sex Marriage by Demographics


Dream Act by Demographic Variables


AAC: Demographic Lessons

  • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30

  • Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k

  • Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70

  • Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+

  • Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals


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