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FEBRUARY 2008. CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING. U.S. Wheat Associates CHINA. China – Population: 1.3 billion. China Economy: Fastest Growing Major Economy ( 2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%). (Billion US$). < 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >. Source: China National Statistics Bureau

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CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING

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China market briefing

FEBRUARY 2008

CHINA –

MARKET BRIEFING

U.S. Wheat Associates

CHINA


China market briefing

China –

Population: 1.3 billion


China market briefing

China Economy:Fastest Growing Major Economy(2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%)

(Billion US$)

< 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >

Source: China National Statistics Bureau

Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%


China market briefing

High Per Capita GDP Growth

(Unit: US$)

Source: China National Statistics Bureau

Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%


China market briefing

China –

Wheat area: PRC 23.5 MHa / USA 23.4 MHa


China market briefing

  • Qinhaungdao

  • Dalian

  • Xingang

  • Lianyungang

  • Nantong

  • Zhangjiagang

  • Shanghai

  • Ningbo

  • Xiamen

  • Fangcheng

  • Huangpu

  • Shenzhen

  • Zhanjiang

China -15 MAJOR PORTS

  • Yantiai

  • Qingdao


China wheat situation

China Wheat Situation


Chinese vs rest of the world ending stocks

Chinese vs. Rest of the World Ending Stocks

China accounted for 49% of world stocks in 1999/2000, down to 29%


China market briefing

China’s Soybean Supply / Demand


China market briefing

China’s Rice Supply / Demand


China market briefing

China’s Corn Supply / Demand


China wheat area and production

China –Wheat Area and Production

4.6

107

23.0


China market briefing

China Wheat Production - Major Producer Provinces

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC)

* Estimate


China market briefing

China Wheat Yield - By Major Province

(Unit: MT/Ha)

Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC)

* Estimate


China market briefing

China Daily Grain Market Price :

Source: China National Grain & Oils Information Center

Exchange rate @8.0 since Sep 2004, @7.86 since Nov 2006, @7.55 since Jul 2007

@7.5 since Aug 2007, @7.15 since Jan 2008


U s fob pnw prices

U.S. FOB PNW Prices


Srw and soft white prices

SRW and Soft White Prices


Ocean freight rates for grains

Ocean Freight Rates for Grains


China market briefing

China Wheat Imports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China market briefing

China Flour Imports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China s us imports purchases and actual imports containerized and bulk vessel shipments

China’s US ImportsPurchases and actual imports: Containerized and bulk vessel shipments

376

152

SW/WW-178

NS/DNS-188

SRW – 66

HRW – 0.5

SW/WW-5.8

NS/DNS-3.3

SRW – 57.3

HRW – 0.3

SW/WW-10.5

NS/DNS-0.7

SRW – 0

725

516

*(July – June)


China market briefing

China Wheat Exports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China market briefing

China Wheat Exports -*Crop Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

*Crop Year from June to next May


China market briefing

China Flour Exports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: 10 TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China market briefing

China Flour Exports -*Marketing Year – by Country

(Unit: 10 TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

*Marketing Year from July to next June


China market briefing

China’s flour consumption estimates –

70 MMT


Market quality segments

High

High

Market Pressure

Medium

Medium

Low

Low

Current

Future

Market Quality Segments


China market briefing

QSR Expansion (Quick Service Retail)Western-Style Fast Food

Source: China Food Industry Association and internet


Hrw hww use china hww 12 5 or higher protein

HRW & HWW Use – China( HWW - 12.5 or higher protein )

  • Western Pan Bread

    • (only pan loaf tested in OVA)

  • Sweet Breads

  • European Hearth Breads

  • Dumpling (Jiao Zi) Wrappers

  • Premium Grade Chilled and Fresh Noodles


Policies affecting wheat

Policies Affecting Wheat

  • Domestic & int’l price differential

    • TRQ

    • Value added tax - VAT

  • Milling wheat and flour exports

    • VAT, TRQ

  • Flour exports to other Asian markets

  • Animal & plant quarantine rules

    • Dockage and non-wheat seeds

    • TCK and KB fungus

    • Insects

  • MRL’s for pesticides

  • Food labeling requirements


Us wheat activities

US Wheat Activities

  • Trade servicing and information

    • Weekly price report

    • Crop and harvest progress reports

    • Supply & demand reports

    • Industry & Government relations

  • Publications

    • Chinese or dual language

  • Sino – America Baking School

    • Instructor training (USA, Europe, Asia)

  • Baking technical servicing

  • Milling technical servicing

  • Wheat procurement training

  • Overseas Varietal Analysis

  • Asian products collaborative


Questions answers

Questions / Answers


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