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FEBRUARY 2008. CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING. U.S. Wheat Associates CHINA. China – Population: 1.3 billion. China Economy: Fastest Growing Major Economy ( 2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%). (Billion US$). < 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >. Source: China National Statistics Bureau

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china market briefing

FEBRUARY 2008

CHINA –

MARKET BRIEFING

U.S. Wheat Associates

CHINA

slide2

China –

Population: 1.3 billion

slide3

China Economy:Fastest Growing Major Economy (2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%)

(Billion US$)

< 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >

Source: China National Statistics Bureau

Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%

slide4

High Per Capita GDP Growth

(Unit: US$)

Source: China National Statistics Bureau

Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%

slide5

China –

Wheat area: PRC 23.5 MHa / USA 23.4 MHa

slide6

Qinhaungdao

  • Dalian
  • Xingang
  • Lianyungang
  • Nantong
  • Zhangjiagang
  • Shanghai
  • Ningbo
  • Xiamen
  • Fangcheng
  • Huangpu
  • Shenzhen
  • Zhanjiang

China -15 MAJOR PORTS

  • Yantiai
  • Qingdao
chinese vs rest of the world ending stocks
Chinese vs. Rest of the World Ending Stocks

China accounted for 49% of world stocks in 1999/2000, down to 29%

slide13

China Wheat Production - Major Producer Provinces

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC)

* Estimate

slide14

China Wheat Yield - By Major Province

(Unit: MT/Ha)

Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC)

* Estimate

slide15

China Daily Grain Market Price :

Source: China National Grain & Oils Information Center

Exchange rate @8.0 since Sep 2004, @7.86 since Nov 2006, @7.55 since Jul 2007

@7.5 since Aug 2007, @7.15 since Jan 2008

slide19

China Wheat Imports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

slide20

China Flour Imports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

china s us imports purchases and actual imports containerized and bulk vessel shipments
China’s US ImportsPurchases and actual imports: Containerized and bulk vessel shipments

376

152

SW/WW-178

NS/DNS-188

SRW – 66

HRW – 0.5

SW/WW-5.8

NS/DNS-3.3

SRW – 57.3

HRW – 0.3

SW/WW-10.5

NS/DNS-0.7

SRW – 0

725

516

*(July – June)

slide22

China Wheat Exports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

slide23

China Wheat Exports -*Crop Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

*Crop Year from June to next May

slide24

China Flour Exports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: 10 TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

slide25

China Flour Exports -*Marketing Year – by Country

(Unit: 10 TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

*Marketing Year from July to next June

market quality segments

High

High

Market Pressure

Medium

Medium

Low

Low

Current

Future

Market Quality Segments
slide28

QSR Expansion (Quick Service Retail)Western-Style Fast Food

Source: China Food Industry Association and internet

hrw hww use china hww 12 5 or higher protein
HRW & HWW Use – China( HWW - 12.5 or higher protein )
  • Western Pan Bread
    • (only pan loaf tested in OVA)
  • Sweet Breads
  • European Hearth Breads
  • Dumpling (Jiao Zi) Wrappers
  • Premium Grade Chilled and Fresh Noodles
policies affecting wheat
Policies Affecting Wheat
  • Domestic & int’l price differential
    • TRQ
    • Value added tax - VAT
  • Milling wheat and flour exports
    • VAT, TRQ
  • Flour exports to other Asian markets
  • Animal & plant quarantine rules
    • Dockage and non-wheat seeds
    • TCK and KB fungus
    • Insects
  • MRL’s for pesticides
  • Food labeling requirements
us wheat activities
US Wheat Activities
  • Trade servicing and information
    • Weekly price report
    • Crop and harvest progress reports
    • Supply & demand reports
    • Industry & Government relations
  • Publications
    • Chinese or dual language
  • Sino – America Baking School
    • Instructor training (USA, Europe, Asia)
  • Baking technical servicing
  • Milling technical servicing
  • Wheat procurement training
  • Overseas Varietal Analysis
  • Asian products collaborative
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