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FEBRUARY 2008. CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING. U.S. Wheat Associates CHINA. China – Population: 1.3 billion. China Economy: Fastest Growing Major Economy ( 2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%). (Billion US$). < 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >. Source: China National Statistics Bureau

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China market briefing

FEBRUARY 2008

CHINA –

MARKET BRIEFING

U.S. Wheat Associates

CHINA


China –

Population: 1.3 billion


China Economy:Fastest Growing Major Economy (2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%)

(Billion US$)

< 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >

Source: China National Statistics Bureau

Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%


High Per Capita GDP Growth

(Unit: US$)

Source: China National Statistics Bureau

Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%


China –

Wheat area: PRC 23.5 MHa / USA 23.4 MHa


  • Dalian

  • Xingang

  • Lianyungang

  • Nantong

  • Zhangjiagang

  • Shanghai

  • Ningbo

  • Xiamen

  • Fangcheng

  • Huangpu

  • Shenzhen

  • Zhanjiang

China -15 MAJOR PORTS

  • Yantiai

  • Qingdao



Chinese vs rest of the world ending stocks
Chinese vs. Rest of the World Ending Stocks

China accounted for 49% of world stocks in 1999/2000, down to 29%





China wheat area and production
China –Wheat Area and Production

4.6

107

23.0


China Wheat Production - Major Producer Provinces

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC)

* Estimate


China Wheat Yield - By Major Province

(Unit: MT/Ha)

Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC)

* Estimate


China Daily Grain Market Price :

Source: China National Grain & Oils Information Center

Exchange rate @8.0 since Sep 2004, @7.86 since Nov 2006, @7.55 since Jul 2007

@7.5 since Aug 2007, @7.15 since Jan 2008





China Wheat Imports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China Flour Imports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China s us imports purchases and actual imports containerized and bulk vessel shipments
China’s US ImportsPurchases and actual imports: Containerized and bulk vessel shipments

376

152

SW/WW-178

NS/DNS-188

SRW – 66

HRW – 0.5

SW/WW-5.8

NS/DNS-3.3

SRW – 57.3

HRW – 0.3

SW/WW-10.5

NS/DNS-0.7

SRW – 0

725

516

*(July – June)


China Wheat Exports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China Wheat Exports -*Crop Year – by Country

(Unit: MMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

*Crop Year from June to next May


China Flour Exports -Calendar Year – by Country

(Unit: 10 TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics


China Flour Exports -*Marketing Year – by Country

(Unit: 10 TMT)

Source: China Customs Statistics

*Marketing Year from July to next June



Market quality segments

High

High

Market Pressure

Medium

Medium

Low

Low

Current

Future

Market Quality Segments


QSR Expansion (Quick Service Retail)Western-Style Fast Food

Source: China Food Industry Association and internet


Hrw hww use china hww 12 5 or higher protein
HRW & HWW Use – China( HWW - 12.5 or higher protein )

  • Western Pan Bread

    • (only pan loaf tested in OVA)

  • Sweet Breads

  • European Hearth Breads

  • Dumpling (Jiao Zi) Wrappers

  • Premium Grade Chilled and Fresh Noodles


Policies affecting wheat
Policies Affecting Wheat

  • Domestic & int’l price differential

    • TRQ

    • Value added tax - VAT

  • Milling wheat and flour exports

    • VAT, TRQ

  • Flour exports to other Asian markets

  • Animal & plant quarantine rules

    • Dockage and non-wheat seeds

    • TCK and KB fungus

    • Insects

  • MRL’s for pesticides

  • Food labeling requirements


Us wheat activities
US Wheat Activities

  • Trade servicing and information

    • Weekly price report

    • Crop and harvest progress reports

    • Supply & demand reports

    • Industry & Government relations

  • Publications

    • Chinese or dual language

  • Sino – America Baking School

    • Instructor training (USA, Europe, Asia)

  • Baking technical servicing

  • Milling technical servicing

  • Wheat procurement training

  • Overseas Varietal Analysis

  • Asian products collaborative



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