The carbon balance of Eurasia consolidated
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The carbon balance of Eurasia consolidated with eddy covariance observations. Michiel K. van der Molen Han Dolman Luca Belelli Marchesini Chiara Corradi Martin Heimann Takashi Kuwada Alexander V. Kononov Juliya Kurbatova Trofim Maximov Eddy Moors Taro Nakai Ernst-Detlef Schulze

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The carbon balance of Eurasia consolidated

with eddy covariance observations

Michiel K. van der Molen Han Dolman Luca Belelli Marchesini

Chiara Corradi Martin Heimann Takashi Kuwada

Alexander V. Kononov Juliya Kurbatova Trofim Maximov

Eddy Moors Taro Nakai Ernst-Detlef Schulze

Olga Shibistova Takeshi Ohta Riccardo Valentini

Andrej Varlagin Sergei Zimov


Tcos siberia tower sites

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

TCOS-Siberia tower sites

Chokurdakh

tundra

Tver

2x forest + bog

Zotino

forest + bog

Cherskii

floodplain tundra

Yakutsk

Larix + Pine forest

Hakasia

natural and regenerating steppe


Tcos siberia tower sites1

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

TCOS-Siberia tower sites

  • 12 sites in key ecosystem types

  • 47 site-years between 1998-2005

  • nearly indentical instrumentation

  • Euroflux methodology


Annual course of co 2 flux

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Annual course of CO2 flux


Seasonal cycles of co 2 flux

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Seasonal cycles of CO2 flux


Annual course of co 2 flux1

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Annual course of CO2 flux


Land cover distribution in the rf

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Land cover distribution in the RF

Total land area: 17.1 x 106 km2 or 11% of the global land area


Upscaling to rf territory

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Upscaling to RF territory

CO2 sink in RF: -1.9 Pg C yr-1 = NEP


How large is this sink

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

How large is this sink?

  • CO2 sink in RF (NEP): -1.9 Pg C yr-1

    for comparison:

  • global fossil fuel burning : +6 Pg C yr-1

  • (tropical) deforestation: +2 Pg C yr-1


Why so much uncertainty it s all scales

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Why so much uncertainty: It’s all scales

global change

10.000 km

annual fluxes

inter annual variability

daily fluxes

soil drying

respiration changes

100 m

half hour fluxes

photosynthesis processes

20 cm

micrometeorology

eddies

10Hz

1 day

annual

30 min


Why so much uncertainty flux calculation procedure

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Why so much uncertainty?flux calculation procedure


Why so much uncertainty gap filling procedure

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Why so much uncertainty?gap-filling procedure


Why so much uncertainty gap filling procedure1

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Why so much uncertainty?gap-filling procedure


Why so much uncertainty u correction

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Why so much uncertainty?u*-correction

  • night-time flux under-estimation

  • unknown, but sensitive threshold u*

  • u*-correction with unrepresentative data

  • possible double accounting


Why so much uncertainty

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Why so much uncertainty?


Carbon balance

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Carbon balance

  • NEP = -1.9 Pg C yr-1

  • The carbon balance may be characterized as slow in – fast out


Carbon losses

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Carbon losses

  • NEP = -1.9 Pg C yr-1

    Fires (van der Werf et al., 2006)

  • 0.7% of RF is annually burned

  • Lfire = ~ 0.19 Pg C yr-1 (10 %) direct emissions

  • Lfire = ~ 0.13 Pg C yr-1 ( 7 %) indirect emissions

  • Ldisturbance is unknown, but < Lfire,assume 50% of fires = 0.16 Pg C yr-1

  • Lriver = 0.020 Pg C yr-1 ( 1 %)

  • Total emissions: 0.50 Pg C yr-1

    Conclusion:

    the carbon content of Russian ecosystems increases with 1.4 Pg C yr-1 = NBE


Comparison with top down

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Comparison with top-down

  • Inverse modelling: (~right hand side)

    • -1.3 Pg C yr-1 (Philippe Bousquet et al., 1999)

    • -0.5 Pg C yr-1 (Gurney et al., 2002)

    • -0.4 Pg C yr-1 (Christian Rödenbeck et al., 2003)

    • -0.7 Pg C yr-1 (Wouter Peters, in prep)


The meaning of nep

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

The meaning of NEP

  • stand age matters

  • but can not explain the observed NBE of -1.4 Pg C yr -1

  • NEP=5 mol C m-2 yr-1 ~ 60 g C m-2 yr-1

  • In our case: NEP ~ 200 g C m-2 yr-1

Schulze et al., Science, 2000


Where does the carbon go

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Where does the carbon go?

  • forest inventories (left-hand side)

    +0.035 Pg C yr-1 (Houghton et al., 1987)

    - 0.49 Pg C yr-1 (Kolguchina and Vinson, 1993)

    −0.42±0.07 Pg C yr-1 (Nilsson et al., 2000, Shvidenko and Nilsson, 2003)

  • forest harvesting

    • 8000 km2 or 7% of area burned

    • 0.014 Pg C yr-1 (Shvidenko and Nilsson, 1994)


Where does the carbon go? Hemisphere

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  • Changes in NDVI are strong in

  • Boreal Eurasia

  • West Canada

  • ~35 % in 9 years

  • (Myneni et al., Nature, 1997)


Where does the carbon go? Hemisphere

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  • Changes in Carbon pools are

  • positive in Siberia

  • negative in Canada

  • (Myneni et al., PNAS, 2001)


Summer Hemisphere

Why does the carbon go?

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Winter

  • warming climate (also in summer)

  • longer growing seasons

  • the data do not suggest a short-term response to temperature variability

Autumn

(Chapin et al., Science, 2005)


Why does the carbon go? Hemisphere

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

0h

6h

12h

18h

24h

VPD

  • but

  • high temperature may cause high VPD

  • stomatal response to high VPD may be negative feedback to NEE

5

0

-10

-15

-20

0h

6h

12h

18h

24h

CO2 flux

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct


Summer Hemisphere

Why does the carbon go?

Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Winter

  • changed land management practices: 218∙109 m2 or 8 % of the cultivated agricultural and grasslands were abandoned between 1992 and 2001

  • CO2 fertilization

Autumn


Open Science Conference on the GHG cycle in the Northern Hemisphere

Crete, 15 November 2006

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Conclusions

  • NEP = -1.9 Pg C yr-1

  • NBE = -1.4 Pg C yr-1

  • bottom-up and top-down roughly agree

  • indications of C-storage in biomass

  • probable reasons:

    • warming climate, longer growing seasons

    • changed land use practices

    • CO2 fertilization


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