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Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior

Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior. Mike Dalton California State University Monterey Bay Marine Biodiversity: Using the Past to Inform the Future Scripps Institute for Oceanography November 16, 2003. Open Access Resources.

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Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior

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  1. Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior Mike Dalton California State University Monterey Bay Marine Biodiversity: Using the Past to Inform the Future Scripps Institute for Oceanography November 16, 2003

  2. Open Access Resources • Tragedy-of-the-Commons is the central problem in marine resource management • TOC is intensifying with population growth • Open access problems have win-win solutions • Solutions limit entry, fix incentive problems

  3. Fishing for Solutions • Multidisciplinary approach essential • Extend the framework of ecosystem services • Ecological economics is key but traditional microeconomics also has to be core feature • Coupled models: Ecopath/Ecosim and energy-economic growth models could explore multiple futures with population, technical change, etc.

  4. Historical Perspective in Economics • Historical data is central to empirical economics and policy analysis: Use observations of past decisions to infer how behavior would respond to specific changes in the decision-making environment • Making these inferences requires identifying structural models from time-series data

  5. Sardine Landings and Biomass 1930-2001 PDO

  6. Sardine Harvest Control Rule Harvest = Fraction(SST)•(Biomass - Cutoff)

  7. Four Cases of ENSO Variability: Northern Anchovies & Pacific Sardine in Monterey Bay & Southern California

  8. Fishing Effort and Ex Vessel Prices 1981-2001

  9. Significant at 5%

  10. Human Dimensions of Climate Variability • Significant direct effects of SSTs on fishing effort from changes in abundance and/or ex vessel prices • Significant Forward-looking behavior: Expectations about future climate affect current behavior

  11. Past Informing the Future Decisions about Fishing Effort Abundance & Prices Expectations are forecasts using current information Environmental Variability

  12. Management Implications • Dynamic inconsistencies can occur if managers do not consider forward-looking behavior when formulating regulations • Inconsistent policies can induce destabilizing feedbacks and other unintended problems • Consistent policies require managing by rules rather than discretion

  13. Advantages of Environmentally-Based Rules • Rules avoid destabilizing feedbacks and reduce risks of fishery collapse • Rules reduce uncertainty, providing direct efficiency gains and incentives for conservation • Rules can incorporate ecosystem interactions or other information (e.g. estimates of non-consumptive use values)

  14. Acknowledgements • California SeaGrant • William Daspit (PSMFC/PacFIN) • Ray Conser (NMFS/SWFSC) • SIO/CMBC, Sloan Foundation, NMFS/SWFSC

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