Simulating Transformative Resources
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Simulating Transformative Resources in the Electric Power Industry: Andrew Ford Professor, School of the Environment Washington State University February 11, 2014. Case Studies of Conservation & Energy Storage. Electric Power in the 1970s.

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Simulating Transformative Resources in the Electric Power Industry:Andrew FordProfessor, School of the EnvironmentWashington State UniversityFebruary 11, 2014

Case studies of conservation energy storage
Case Studies of Conservation & Energy Storage

Electric power in the 1970s
Electric Power in the 1970s

Power companies deal with the energy crisis, and the financial challenge of building new power plants

Building bigger and bigger plans was no longer the answer
Building Bigger and Bigger Plans was no longer the answer.

Business week may 23 1983
Business Week, May 23, 1983

new plants are forcing rate increases-

further cutting the growth in demand

The death spiral
The Death Spiral



Next: how did the electric utility companies simulate the death spiral?

Now add a model of costs
Now Add a Model of Costs

Not just 3 models, but 33 models .... with ~ ten staff each

300+ modelers! Can’t someone simulate the Death Spiral?

Ok let s build a single model a corporate model
OK, let’s build a single model(a Corporate Model)

  • Workshop by EPRI: only 1 of 12 models did the spiral

  • Workshop for Dept. of Energy: only 1 of 13 models did the spiral

  • Absent system dynamics, managers had to simulate the spiral in their head

Conclusions from my own spiral study
Conclusions from my own “Spiral Study”

Waiting for regulators to raise rates won’t necessarily solve the financial problems

The IOUs could improve their situation by building smaller, shorter-lead time plants

And by slowing the growth in electricity demand through efficiency programs

The 1980s a move to small scale and conservation programs for many utilities
The 1980s: A Move to Small Scale and Conservation Programs for Many Utilities

Conservation: a transformative resource then,

often the best resource today

2 nd case storage

2 for Many Utilitiesnd Case: Storage

Some promoters say storage is theHoly Grail for Renewables

Storage proposals are exploding but does storage have significant value
Storage proposals are exploding. for Many UtilitiesBut does storage have significant value?

  • A dozen or more modes of value can be described, but are seldom quantified

  • The few attempts to quantify value usually show value at less than half the cost

  • Our focus: the value of fuel-free, compressed air storage in the Ontario Power System

View of the long term model
View of the Long-term Model for Many Utilities

A combination of models
A Combination of Models for Many Utilities

Wind in the long term model
Wind in the Long-term Model for Many Utilities

Wind in the short term model
Wind in the Short-term Model for Many Utilities

Exports & Curtailments on a windy Thursday

Short term model shows curtailments
Short-term model shows Curtailments for Many Utilities

Major Curtailments on a windy Thursday

Short term model shows storage used for load leveling
Short-term Model shows Storage for Many Utilitiesused for “Load Leveling”

Questions? for Many Utilities

Back to the long term model opa ontario power authority cash flows
Back to the Long Term Model: for Many UtilitiesOPA: Ontario Power Authority Cash Flows

2 1 billion is less than half the cost
$2.1 Billion is less than half the cost! for Many Utilities

  • The team (& the agencies) agree with this finding

  • Indeed, this finding built confidence in the model.

  • So, where is the value of storage?

Integrating the wind with gcaes
Integrating the Wind with GCAES for Many Utilities

wind is too high; run the pumps

wind is too low; run generators

January 2028 result 90 wind integration

run the pumps for Many Utilities

run generators

January 2028 Result: 90% Wind Integration

What is the mwh value of performing wind integration

What is the $/MWh value of for Many Utilitiesperforming wind integration?

The value of wind integration viewed in the long term model

The Value of Wind-Integration for Many Utilitiesviewed in the long-term model

$ 5.1 billion

Select Middle Curve

Future plans in ontario
Future Plans in Ontario for Many Utilities

  • Long-Term Model: Key stakeholders have shown great interest in continuing to help expand and improve the model

  • Short-Term Model: The operations model will be expanded to continue exploring ways to use storage

  • Storage Demo:The Ministry of Energy will include storage in the acquisition process, starting with 50 MW by 2014.

Advice for the practice of applied system dynamics
Advice for the Practice of for Many UtilitiesApplied System Dynamics

Thank you
Thank You. for Many Utilities