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Case Studies of Conservation & Energy Storage

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Simulating Transformative Resources in the Electric Power Industry:Andrew FordProfessor, School of the EnvironmentWashington State UniversityFebruary 11, 2014

Power companies deal with the energy crisis, and the financial challenge of building new power plants

new plants are forcing rate increases-

further cutting the growth in demand

Questions?

Next: how did the electric utility companies simulate the death spiral?

Not just 3 models, but 33 models .... with ~ ten staff each

300+ modelers! Can’t someone simulate the Death Spiral?

- Workshop by EPRI: only 1 of 12 models did the spiral
- Workshop for Dept. of Energy: only 1 of 13 models did the spiral
- Absent system dynamics, managers had to simulate the spiral in their head

Waiting for regulators to raise rates won’t necessarily solve the financial problems

The IOUs could improve their situation by building smaller, shorter-lead time plants

And by slowing the growth in electricity demand through efficiency programs

Conservation: a transformative resource then,

often the best resource today

2nd Case: Storage

Some promoters say storage is theHoly Grail for Renewables

- A dozen or more modes of value can be described, but are seldom quantified
- The few attempts to quantify value usually show value at less than half the cost
- Our focus: the value of fuel-free, compressed air storage in the Ontario Power System

Exports & Curtailments on a windy Thursday

Major Curtailments on a windy Thursday

- The team (& the agencies) agree with this finding
- Indeed, this finding built confidence in the model.
- So, where is the value of storage?

wind is too high; run the pumps

wind is too low; run generators

run the pumps

run generators

January 2028 Result: 90% Wind Integration

What is the $/MWh value of performing wind integration?

The Value of Wind-Integrationviewed in the long-term model

$ 5.1 billion

Select Middle Curve

- Long-Term Model: Key stakeholders have shown great interest in continuing to help expand and improve the model
- Short-Term Model: The operations model will be expanded to continue exploring ways to use storage
- Storage Demo:The Ministry of Energy will include storage in the acquisition process, starting with 50 MW by 2014.