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Simulating Transformative Resources in the Electric Power Industry: Andrew Ford Professor, School of the Environment Washington State University February 11, 2014. Case Studies of Conservation & Energy Storage. Electric Power in the 1970s.

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Case Studies of Conservation & Energy Storage

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Case studies of conservation energy storage

Simulating Transformative Resources in the Electric Power Industry:Andrew FordProfessor, School of the EnvironmentWashington State UniversityFebruary 11, 2014


Case studies of conservation energy storage

Case Studies of Conservation & Energy Storage


Electric power in the 1970s

Electric Power in the 1970s

Power companies deal with the energy crisis, and the financial challenge of building new power plants


Building bigger and bigger plans was no longer the answer

Building Bigger and Bigger Plans was no longer the answer.


The golden years 1960s

The Golden Years: 1960s


The difficult years 1970s

The Difficult Years: 1970s


Business week may 28 1979

Business Week, May 28, 1979


Business week may 23 1983

Business Week, May 23, 1983

new plants are forcing rate increases-

further cutting the growth in demand


The death spiral

The Death Spiral


The death spiral in context

The Death Spiral in Context


Questions

Questions?

Next: how did the electric utility companies simulate the death spiral?


Start with a demand model

Start with a Demand Model


Now calculate capacity additions

Now Calculate Capacity Additions


Now add a model of costs

Now Add a Model of Costs

Not just 3 models, but 33 models .... with ~ ten staff each

300+ modelers! Can’t someone simulate the Death Spiral?


Ok let s build a single model a corporate model

OK, let’s build a single model(a Corporate Model)

  • Workshop by EPRI: only 1 of 12 models did the spiral

  • Workshop for Dept. of Energy: only 1 of 13 models did the spiral

  • Absent system dynamics, managers had to simulate the spiral in their head


Conclusions from my own spiral study

Conclusions from my own “Spiral Study”

Waiting for regulators to raise rates won’t necessarily solve the financial problems

The IOUs could improve their situation by building smaller, shorter-lead time plants

And by slowing the growth in electricity demand through efficiency programs


The 1980s a move to small scale and conservation programs for many utilities

The 1980s: A Move to Small Scale and Conservation Programs for Many Utilities

Conservation: a transformative resource then,

often the best resource today


2 nd case storage

2nd Case: Storage

Some promoters say storage is theHoly Grail for Renewables


Storage proposals are exploding but does storage have significant value

Storage proposals are exploding.But does storage have significant value?

  • A dozen or more modes of value can be described, but are seldom quantified

  • The few attempts to quantify value usually show value at less than half the cost

  • Our focus: the value of fuel-free, compressed air storage in the Ontario Power System


View of the long term model

View of the Long-term Model


A combination of models

A Combination of Models


Wind in the long term model

Wind in the Long-term Model


Wind in the short term model

Wind in the Short-term Model

Exports & Curtailments on a windy Thursday


Short term model shows curtailments

Short-term model shows Curtailments

Major Curtailments on a windy Thursday


Key stock in the short term model

Key Stock in the Short-term Model


Short term model shows storage used for load leveling

Short-term Model shows Storageused for “Load Leveling”


Questions1

Questions?


Back to the long term model opa ontario power authority cash flows

Back to the Long Term Model: OPA: Ontario Power Authority Cash Flows


Value of load leveling and ct displacement

Value of Load Leveling and CT Displacement


2 1 billion is less than half the cost

$2.1 Billion is less than half the cost!

  • The team (& the agencies) agree with this finding

  • Indeed, this finding built confidence in the model.

  • So, where is the value of storage?


Integrating the wind with gcaes

Integrating the Wind with GCAES

wind is too high; run the pumps

wind is too low; run generators


January 2028 result 90 wind integration

run the pumps

run generators

January 2028 Result: 90% Wind Integration


What is the mwh value of performing wind integration

What is the $/MWh value of performing wind integration?


The value of wind integration viewed in the long term model

The Value of Wind-Integrationviewed in the long-term model

$ 5.1 billion

Select Middle Curve


7 billion value that meets or exceeds the cost

$7 billion: Value that meets or exceeds the cost!


Future plans in ontario

Future Plans in Ontario

  • Long-Term Model: Key stakeholders have shown great interest in continuing to help expand and improve the model

  • Short-Term Model: The operations model will be expanded to continue exploring ways to use storage

  • Storage Demo:The Ministry of Energy will include storage in the acquisition process, starting with 50 MW by 2014.


Advice for the practice of applied system dynamics

Advice for the Practice of Applied System Dynamics


Thank you

Thank You.


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