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Aeronautical Decision Making. with an emphasis on weather. Quincy, Illinois (KUIN). Bob Linenweber, FAA Safety Team. November 18, 2006. Safer Skies.

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Aeronautical decision making

Aeronautical Decision Making

with an emphasis on weather

Quincy, Illinois (KUIN)

Bob Linenweber, FAA Safety Team

November 18, 2006


Safer skies
Safer Skies

The Safer Skies agenda originated in 1998 when the Administrator and her team identified the most critical and most common causes for aviation accidents.


Safer skies1
Safer Skies

The Safer Skies program in general is about identifying risk issues and doing something about them.



Dangerous business

In a recent five year period, there were 9,087 general aviation accidents resulting in 2,976 deaths

Dangerous Business


Dangerous business1

27% of all aviation accidents are weather-related. aviation accidents resulting in 2,976 deaths

Over 90% of all weather accidents were caused by pilot error, deficiencies in pilot judgment, and other pilot shortcomings.

Resulting in 254 deaths per year

27%

94%

254 deaths

Dangerous Business


Dangerous business2

254 deaths per year that can be attributed to weather and pilots’ inability to cope with the conditions and the circumstances

Dangerous Business


Risks

Loss of control on landing or take-off due to pilots inability to manage adverse winds

50%

Risks


Risks1

VFR into IMC: Of 580 accidents, 82%, were fatal inability to manage adverse winds

82%

Risks


Risks2

Mechanical Failures inability to manage adverse winds

6%

Risks


Pilot responsibility
Pilot Responsibility inability to manage adverse winds

It’s not weather that crashes airplanes, it’s pilots making bad decisions about weather


An instrument rating indicates the holder has received enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Pilot responsibility1
Pilot Responsibility enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Aeronautical Decision Making

(ADM)

A systematic approach to the mental process used by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances


PPP enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

A simple way to apply the decision making process is the three P’s . . . Perceive, Process, Perform


Information management
Information Management enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

A pilot needs to go beyond just knowing about weather;


Information management1
Information Management enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

A pilot needs to know how to plan for it and deal with it in the course of a flight


Solutions

Knowledge enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Training

Discipline

Solutions


Solutions1

KNOWLEDGE enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Common Sense

Education

Solutions


Solutions2
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

KNOWLEDGE

  • Common Sense

  • Education


Solutions3
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

TRAINING

  • Initial training


Solutions4
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

TRAINING

  • Initial training

  • Additional Aircraft

    & Ratings


Solutions5
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

TRAINING

  • Initial training

  • Additional Aircraft

    & Ratings


Solutions6
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

TRAINING

  • Initial training

  • Additional Aircraft

    & Ratings

  • Competency Checks


Solutions7
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

TRAINING

  • Initial training

  • Additional Aircraft

    & Ratings

  • Competency Checks

  • Recurrent Training


Solutions8
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice


Solutions9
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice

  • Currency


Solutions10
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice

  • Currency

  • Review


Solutions11
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice

  • Currency

  • Review

  • COMMITMENT


Solutions12
Solutions enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Commitment


Weather information
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Presentation

  • Understanding


Weather sources
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

  • NWS

  • AFSS/FSS


Weather sources1
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS


Weather sources2
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN


Weather sources3
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI


Weather sources4
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS


Weather sources5
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

NWS


Weather sources6
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

NWS

ARTCC


Weather sources7
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

NWS

ARTCC

TWEB/

AWOS/ASOS/ATIS


Weather sources8
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE


Weather sources9
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AVIATION WEATHER CENTER


Weather sources10
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


Weather sources11
Weather Sources enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION


What do you need
What Do You Need? enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

LOCAL FLIGHT

  • Wind

  • Visibility

  • Developing Weather

  • Current information per FAR 91.103


What do you need1
What Do You Need? enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

BEYOND

  • Current information per FAR 91.103

  • Complete weather forecast for route and destination

  • Understanding of the effects of forecast weather on your flight


Weather threats
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Turbulence


Weather threats1
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Turbulence

  • Convection


Weather threats2
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Turbulence

  • Convection

  • Icing


Weather threats3
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Turbulence

  • Convection

  • Icing

  • Obstructions to Visibility


Weather threats4
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Frontal Boundaries


Weather threats5
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Air Mass


Weather threats6
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Fronts


Weather threats7
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Fronts

  • Cold Front

  • Warm Front


Weather threats8
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Fronts

  • Cold Front (unstable)

  • Warm Front (stable)


Weather threats9
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Warm Frontal Region conducive to:

  • Icing

  • Fog

  • Low level clouds

  • Rain/Mist


Cold front

WARM AIR enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Cumulonimbus

COLD AIR

St Louis

Indianapolis

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Cold Front


Warm front

WARM AIR enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Cirrus

Cirrostratus

Altostratus

COLD AIR

Nimbostratus

St Louis

Indianapolis

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Warm Front


Occluded front

Cirrus enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

WARM AIR

Cirrostratus

Altostratus

Nimbostratus

COLD AIR

COLD AIR

St Louis

Indianapolis

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Occluded Front

Cumulonimbus


Win one for the gipper
Win One for the Gipper enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Kansas, March 31, 1931

Knute Rockne

1881-1931

First documented fatal in-flight accident due to icing

Let’s look at ICE


Icing there is no such thing as a little ice

(1) More Weight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

(2) Less Lift

(3) More Drag

(4) Less Thrust

Icing(“there is no such thing as a little ice”)


Icing
Icing enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

And if that isn’t enough

  • Antenna range reduced

  • Can cause a flutter that will break the antenna

  • Windshield ices over

  • Pitot & Static port ice


Tailplane icing
Tailplane Icing enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Tail normally provides downward force

  • Very common winter nose wheel landing scenario

  • In flight noticeable by yoke buffet (not airframe buffet)


Weather threats10
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Moisture


Weather threats11
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Moisture

  • Temperatures between +2º Celsius and - 40º Celsius


Weather threats12
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Rime

  • Clear


Weather threats13
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

Rime

  • Opaque

  • Milky Looking


Weather threats14
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

Clear

  • Less Opaque

  • Denser

  • Smoother


Weather threats15
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

Clear

  • Less Opaque

  • Denser

  • Smoother

  • SLD

    • Supercooled Large Droplet


Weather threats16
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Turn Around


Weather threats17
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Turn Around

  • Ascend


Weather threats18
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Turn Around

  • Ascend

  • Descend


Weather threats19
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Airframe Icing

  • Trace

  • Light

  • Moderate

  • Severe


Weather threats20
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Turbulence

  • Convection

  • Wind Speed and Direction Changes


Weather threats21
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Turbulence

  • Light

  • Moderate

  • Severe

  • Extreme


Weather threats22
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Clear Air Turbulence

  • Hundreds of Miles Downwind

  • Leeward of Mountains


Weather threats23
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Thunderstorms

  • Cumulonimbus


Weather threats24
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Thunderstorms

  • Cumulonimbus

  • Unstable Air


Weather threats25
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Thunderstorms

Growth


Weather threats26
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Thunderstorms

Mature


Weather threats27
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Thunderstorms

Dissipating


Weather threats28
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Microbursts

&

Gust Fronts

Sudden and Intense Windstorms below a Thunderstorm


Weather threats29
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Wind Shear

Rapid wind direction change


Weather threats30
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Wind Shear

  • Gain or loss of airspeed

  • Altitude of encounter


Weather threats31
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Obscuration

to Visibility


Weather threats32
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Obscuration

to Visibility

  • Fog


Weather threats33
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Obscuration

to Visibility

  • Fog

  • Low Ceilings


Weather threats34
Weather Threats enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Obscuration

to Visibility

  • Fog

  • Low Ceilings

  • Haze


Weather information1
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

  • Newspaper

  • Radio/Television

  • Internet

  • Telephone

  • Personal Briefing

  • Personal Observation


Weather information2
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

  • DTN

  • WSI

  • DUATS

  • OTHERS


Weather information3
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View


Weather information4
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View

  • Surface Analysis


Weather information5
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View

  • Surface Analysis

  • Winds Aloft


Weather information6
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View

  • Surface Analysis

  • Winds Aloft

  • Regional Radar


Weather information7

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Satellite View

Surface Analysis

Winds Aloft

Regional Radar

FA

GA

SERN . . . BKN-OVC-015. TOPS O30. VIS 3-5 SM BR. 16-17Z BKN 030.

18-20Z SCT-BKN040 BKN CI. OTLK . . . VFR

Weather Information


Weather information8

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Area Forecast

(FA)

Issued 3 times daily

4 times in Hawaii

18 hour synopsis

Categorical Outlook

GA

SERN . . . BKN-OVC-015. TOPS O30. VIS 3-5 SM BR. 16-17Z BKN 030.

18-20Z SCT-BKN040 BKN CI. OTLK . . . VFR

Weather Information


Weather information9

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Satellite View

Surface Analysis

Winds Aloft

Regional Radar

FA

METAR

METARs for kvld kluk klex

KLEX 271854Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM

-RA BR OVC016 09/09 A2995 RMK AO2

  SLP141 P0002 T00940089 =

KLUK 271853Z 35005KT 5SM -RA BR OVC006 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145

  P0003 T00890083==

KVLD 271853Z 19010KT 10SM BKN042 BKN049 26/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP194

  T02610167=

Weather Information


Weather information10

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Aviation Routine Weather Report

(METAR)

Issued Hourly (at least)

KLUK 271853Z 35005KT 5SM RA BR OVC006 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145

P0003 T00890083=

Weather Information


Weather information11

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Aviation Routine Weather Report

(METAR)

Issued Hourly (at least)

KLUK 271832Z 35005KT 5SM RA BR OVC006 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145

P0003 T00890083=

Weather Information


Weather information12

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Satellite View

Surface Analysis

Winds Aloft

Regional Radar

FA

METAR

TAF

KLUK 271740Z 271818 19004KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC025

  TEMPO 1819 2SM RA BR OVC006

  FM1900 22005KT 5SM BR OVC010

Weather Information


Weather information13

Pre-flight enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Aerodrome Terminal Forecast

(TAF)

Issued 4 times daily

Valid for 24 hours

5 mile radius from center of airport

Categorical Outlook

KLUK 271740Z 271818 19004KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC025

TEMPO 1819 2SM RA BR OVC006

FM1900 22005KT 5SM BR OVC010

Weather Information


Do i really need to know how to read this can t i just get a plain language translation
Do I really need to know how to read this? enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.Can’t I just get a “plain language” translation.


Thin Snow & Ice enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Metar cheat sheet
METAR “Cheat Sheet” enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Weather information14
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pre-flight

AFSS

  • Outlook Briefing

    6 hours or more in the future

  • Standard Briefing

    If you have not received a previous briefing

  • Abbreviated Briefing

    If you just need to supplement current information


Weather information15
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

PIREPS

PIlot REPortS


Weather information16
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • Flight Watch

    122.0

  • Flight Service

    (on published frequencies)


Weather information17
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • Personal Observation

  • ARTCC/ATC

  • Radio Contact with FSS

  • AWOS/ASOS/ATIS/TWEBs

  • VOR Voice Monitoring

  • FISDL Links


Weather information18
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • AWOS

    (Automatic Weather Observation System)


Weather information19
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • AWOS

    (Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

    (Automatic Surface Observation System)


Weather information20
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • AWOS

    (Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

    (Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

    (Automatic Terminal Information System)


Weather information21
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • AWOS

    (Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

    (Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

    (Automatic Terminal Information System)

  • HIWAS

    (Hazardous Information Weather Advisory System)


Weather information22
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • AWOS

    (Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

    (Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

    (Automatic Terminal Information System)

  • HIWAS

    (Hazardous Information Weather Advisory System)

  • TWEB

    (Transcribed Weather Broadcast)


Weather information23
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

In-flight

  • AWOS

    (Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

    (Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

    (Automatic Terminal Information System)

  • HIWAS

    (Hazardous Information Weather Advisory System)

  • TWEB

    (Transcribed Weather Broadcast)

  • WS,WA,WST,WW, AWW

    (Weather Advisory Broadcasts)


Weather information24
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Aeronautical Information Manual

(AIM)


Weather information25
Weather Information enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Aeronautical Information Manual

(AIM)


Flight planning
Flight Planning enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Visualization


Weather planning
Weather Planning enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Weather planning1
Weather Planning enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Flight planning1
Flight Planning enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Temperature

  • Moisture

  • Pressure


Flight planning2
Flight Planning enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Personal minimums checklist
Personal Minimums Checklist enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

“If I can count the stars on the flag, I’m not going to fly.”


What are we trying to do
What are we trying to do? enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Deliver a kidney Have fun

to a dying

Person

Get my Impress

family home someone


Flight planning3
Flight Planning enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


94 pilot error

94% enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Pilot Error

Safer Skies


Safer skies3
Safer Skies enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Knowledge

  • Training

  • Discipline


Safer skies4
Safer Skies enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.


Www faasafety gov
www.faasafety.gov enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Informational Material

  • Notices of items you desire

    • TFRs, Unapproved Parts, Flight Schools, Newsletters, Airspace Changes, and many more

  • Notices of Safety Seminars

    • and last minute cancellations

  • List of contacts (FAASTeam Reps)

  • 72% of Quincy pilots not registered

  • 63% of Quincy CFIs not registered


Want to learn more about icing
Want to learn more about icing? enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

1. Register

2. Learning Center


Want to learn more about icing1
Want to learn more about icing? enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

Online Courses


Pilot proficiency award program
Pilot Proficiency Award Program enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • “Wings”

  • Attend a safety meeting

  • Three (3) hours of training with an authorized instructor

    • Slow flight and stalls

    • Takeoffs and landings

    • Hood work


ASRS enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

The FAA offers a Get Out of Jail, Free card.


Special thanks
Special Thanks enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • Director Mark E. Hanna

    • Quincy Airport Manager

  • Mr. Michael H. Curtis

    • Captain Red

  • The FAA

    • which believes there are no borders to safety


Feedback
Feedback enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

The Central Region FAA Safety Team (FAASTeam) is dedicated to Quality Customer Service and we would value your feedback.  Please provide your feedback at:

http:// www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/avs/offices/afs/qms

(it’s all on the handout)


Contacts
Contacts enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

  • [email protected]

  • [email protected]


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