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Aeronautical Decision Making. with an emphasis on weather. Quincy, Illinois (KUIN). Bob Linenweber, FAA Safety Team. November 18, 2006. Safer Skies.

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aeronautical decision making

Aeronautical Decision Making

with an emphasis on weather

Quincy, Illinois (KUIN)

Bob Linenweber, FAA Safety Team

November 18, 2006

safer skies
Safer Skies

The Safer Skies agenda originated in 1998 when the Administrator and her team identified the most critical and most common causes for aviation accidents.

safer skies1
Safer Skies

The Safer Skies program in general is about identifying risk issues and doing something about them.

dangerous business1
27% of all aviation accidents are weather-related.

Over 90% of all weather accidents were caused by pilot error, deficiencies in pilot judgment, and other pilot shortcomings.

Resulting in 254 deaths per year

27%

94%

254 deaths

Dangerous Business
dangerous business2
254 deaths per year that can be attributed to weather and pilots’ inability to cope with the conditions and the circumstancesDangerous Business
pilot responsibility
Pilot Responsibility

It’s not weather that crashes airplanes, it’s pilots making bad decisions about weather

slide17
An instrument rating indicates the holder has received enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.
pilot responsibility1
Pilot Responsibility

Aeronautical Decision Making

(ADM)

A systematic approach to the mental process used by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances

slide20
PPP

A simple way to apply the decision making process is the three P’s . . . Perceive, Process, Perform

information management
Information Management

A pilot needs to go beyond just knowing about weather;

information management1
Information Management

A pilot needs to know how to plan for it and deal with it in the course of a flight

solutions
Knowledge

Training

Discipline

Solutions
solutions1
KNOWLEDGE

Common Sense

Education

Solutions
solutions2
Solutions

KNOWLEDGE

  • Common Sense
  • Education
solutions3
Solutions

TRAINING

  • Initial training
solutions4
Solutions

TRAINING

  • Initial training
  • Additional Aircraft

& Ratings

solutions5
Solutions

TRAINING

  • Initial training
  • Additional Aircraft

& Ratings

solutions6
Solutions

TRAINING

  • Initial training
  • Additional Aircraft

& Ratings

  • Competency Checks
solutions7
Solutions

TRAINING

  • Initial training
  • Additional Aircraft

& Ratings

  • Competency Checks
  • Recurrent Training
solutions8
Solutions

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice
solutions9
Solutions

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice
  • Currency
solutions10
Solutions

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice
  • Currency
  • Review
solutions11
Solutions

DISCIPLINE

  • Practice
  • Currency
  • Review
  • COMMITMENT
solutions12
Solutions

Commitment

weather information
Weather Information
  • Presentation
  • Understanding
weather sources
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

  • NWS
  • AFSS/FSS
weather sources1
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

weather sources2
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

weather sources3
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

weather sources4
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

weather sources5
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

NWS

weather sources6
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

NWS

ARTCC

weather sources7
Weather Sources

Appropriate Sources

DUATS

DTN

WSI

FSS

NWS

ARTCC

TWEB/

AWOS/ASOS/ATIS

weather sources8
Weather Sources

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

weather sources9
Weather Sources

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

weather sources10
Weather Sources

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

weather sources11
Weather Sources

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION

what do you need
What Do You Need?

LOCAL FLIGHT

  • Wind
  • Visibility
  • Developing Weather
  • Current information per FAR 91.103
what do you need1
What Do You Need?

BEYOND

  • Current information per FAR 91.103
  • Complete weather forecast for route and destination
  • Understanding of the effects of forecast weather on your flight
weather threats
Weather Threats
  • Turbulence
weather threats1
Weather Threats
  • Turbulence
  • Convection
weather threats2
Weather Threats
  • Turbulence
  • Convection
  • Icing
weather threats3
Weather Threats
  • Turbulence
  • Convection
  • Icing
  • Obstructions to Visibility
weather threats4
Weather Threats

Frontal Boundaries

weather threats7
Weather Threats

Fronts

  • Cold Front
  • Warm Front
weather threats8
Weather Threats

Fronts

  • Cold Front (unstable)
  • Warm Front (stable)
weather threats9
Weather Threats

Warm Frontal Region conducive to:

  • Icing
  • Fog
  • Low level clouds
  • Rain/Mist
cold front

WARM AIR

Cumulonimbus

COLD AIR

St Louis

Indianapolis

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Cold Front
warm front

WARM AIR

Cirrus

Cirrostratus

Altostratus

COLD AIR

Nimbostratus

St Louis

Indianapolis

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Warm Front
occluded front

Cirrus

WARM AIR

Cirrostratus

Altostratus

Nimbostratus

COLD AIR

COLD AIR

St Louis

Indianapolis

Columbus

Pittsburgh

Occluded Front

Cumulonimbus

win one for the gipper
Win One for the Gipper

Kansas, March 31, 1931

Knute Rockne

1881-1931

First documented fatal in-flight accident due to icing

Let’s look at ICE

icing
Icing

And if that isn’t enough

  • Antenna range reduced
  • Can cause a flutter that will break the antenna
  • Windshield ices over
  • Pitot & Static port ice
tailplane icing
Tailplane Icing
  • Tail normally provides downward force
  • Very common winter nose wheel landing scenario
  • In flight noticeable by yoke buffet (not airframe buffet)
weather threats10
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Moisture
weather threats11
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Moisture
  • Temperatures between +2º Celsius and - 40º Celsius
weather threats12
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Rime
  • Clear
weather threats13
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

Rime

  • Opaque
  • Milky Looking
weather threats14
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

Clear

  • Less Opaque
  • Denser
  • Smoother
weather threats15
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

Clear

  • Less Opaque
  • Denser
  • Smoother
  • SLD
    • Supercooled Large Droplet
weather threats16
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Turn Around
weather threats17
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Turn Around
  • Ascend
weather threats18
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Turn Around
  • Ascend
  • Descend
weather threats19
Weather Threats

Airframe Icing

  • Trace
  • Light
  • Moderate
  • Severe
weather threats20
Weather Threats

Turbulence

  • Convection
  • Wind Speed and Direction Changes
weather threats21
Weather Threats

Turbulence

  • Light
  • Moderate
  • Severe
  • Extreme
weather threats22
Weather Threats

Clear Air Turbulence

  • Hundreds of Miles Downwind
  • Leeward of Mountains
weather threats23
Weather Threats

Thunderstorms

  • Cumulonimbus
weather threats24
Weather Threats

Thunderstorms

  • Cumulonimbus
  • Unstable Air
weather threats25
Weather Threats

Thunderstorms

Growth

weather threats26
Weather Threats

Thunderstorms

Mature

weather threats27
Weather Threats

Thunderstorms

Dissipating

weather threats28
Weather Threats

Microbursts

&

Gust Fronts

Sudden and Intense Windstorms below a Thunderstorm

weather threats29
Weather Threats

Wind Shear

Rapid wind direction change

weather threats30
Weather Threats

Wind Shear

  • Gain or loss of airspeed
  • Altitude of encounter
weather threats31
Weather Threats

Obscuration

to Visibility

weather threats32
Weather Threats

Obscuration

to Visibility

  • Fog
weather threats33
Weather Threats

Obscuration

to Visibility

  • Fog
  • Low Ceilings
weather threats34
Weather Threats

Obscuration

to Visibility

  • Fog
  • Low Ceilings
  • Haze
weather information1
Weather Information

Pre-flight

  • Newspaper
  • Radio/Television
  • Internet
  • Telephone
  • Personal Briefing
  • Personal Observation
weather information2
Weather Information

Pre-flight

  • DTN
  • WSI
  • DUATS
  • OTHERS
weather information3
Weather Information

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View
weather information4
Weather Information

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View
  • Surface Analysis
weather information5
Weather Information

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View
  • Surface Analysis
  • Winds Aloft
weather information6
Weather Information

Pre-flight

  • Satellite View
  • Surface Analysis
  • Winds Aloft
  • Regional Radar
weather information7
Pre-flight

Satellite View

Surface Analysis

Winds Aloft

Regional Radar

FA

GA

SERN . . . BKN-OVC-015. TOPS O30. VIS 3-5 SM BR. 16-17Z BKN 030.

18-20Z SCT-BKN040 BKN CI. OTLK . . . VFR

Weather Information
weather information8
Pre-flight

Area Forecast

(FA)

Issued 3 times daily

4 times in Hawaii

18 hour synopsis

Categorical Outlook

GA

SERN . . . BKN-OVC-015. TOPS O30. VIS 3-5 SM BR. 16-17Z BKN 030.

18-20Z SCT-BKN040 BKN CI. OTLK . . . VFR

Weather Information
weather information9
Pre-flight

Satellite View

Surface Analysis

Winds Aloft

Regional Radar

FA

METAR

METARs for kvld kluk klex

KLEX 271854Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM

-RA BR OVC016 09/09 A2995 RMK AO2

  SLP141 P0002 T00940089 =

KLUK 271853Z 35005KT 5SM -RA BR OVC006 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145

  P0003 T00890083==

KVLD 271853Z 19010KT 10SM BKN042 BKN049 26/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP194

  T02610167=

Weather Information
weather information10
Pre-flight

Aviation Routine Weather Report

(METAR)

Issued Hourly (at least)

KLUK 271853Z 35005KT 5SM RA BR OVC006 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145

P0003 T00890083=

Weather Information
weather information11
Pre-flight

Aviation Routine Weather Report

(METAR)

Issued Hourly (at least)

KLUK 271832Z 35005KT 5SM RA BR OVC006 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145

P0003 T00890083=

Weather Information
weather information12
Pre-flight

Satellite View

Surface Analysis

Winds Aloft

Regional Radar

FA

METAR

TAF

KLUK 271740Z 271818 19004KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC025

  TEMPO 1819 2SM RA BR OVC006

  FM1900 22005KT 5SM BR OVC010

Weather Information
weather information13
Pre-flight

Aerodrome Terminal Forecast

(TAF)

Issued 4 times daily

Valid for 24 hours

5 mile radius from center of airport

Categorical Outlook

KLUK 271740Z 271818 19004KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC025

TEMPO 1819 2SM RA BR OVC006

FM1900 22005KT 5SM BR OVC010

Weather Information
weather information14
Weather Information

Pre-flight

AFSS

  • Outlook Briefing

6 hours or more in the future

  • Standard Briefing

If you have not received a previous briefing

  • Abbreviated Briefing

If you just need to supplement current information

weather information15
Weather Information

PIREPS

PIlot REPortS

weather information16
Weather Information

In-flight

  • Flight Watch

122.0

  • Flight Service

(on published frequencies)

weather information17
Weather Information

In-flight

  • Personal Observation
  • ARTCC/ATC
  • Radio Contact with FSS
  • AWOS/ASOS/ATIS/TWEBs
  • VOR Voice Monitoring
  • FISDL Links
weather information18
Weather Information

In-flight

  • AWOS

(Automatic Weather Observation System)

weather information19
Weather Information

In-flight

  • AWOS

(Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

(Automatic Surface Observation System)

weather information20
Weather Information

In-flight

  • AWOS

(Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

(Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

(Automatic Terminal Information System)

weather information21
Weather Information

In-flight

  • AWOS

(Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

(Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

(Automatic Terminal Information System)

  • HIWAS

(Hazardous Information Weather Advisory System)

weather information22
Weather Information

In-flight

  • AWOS

(Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

(Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

(Automatic Terminal Information System)

  • HIWAS

(Hazardous Information Weather Advisory System)

  • TWEB

(Transcribed Weather Broadcast)

weather information23
Weather Information

In-flight

  • AWOS

(Automatic Weather Observation System)

  • ASOS

(Automatic Surface Observation System)

  • ATIS

(Automatic Terminal Information System)

  • HIWAS

(Hazardous Information Weather Advisory System)

  • TWEB

(Transcribed Weather Broadcast)

  • WS,WA,WST,WW, AWW

(Weather Advisory Broadcasts)

weather information24
Weather Information

Aeronautical Information Manual

(AIM)

weather information25
Weather Information

Aeronautical Information Manual

(AIM)

flight planning
Flight Planning

Visualization

flight planning1
Flight Planning
  • Temperature
  • Moisture
  • Pressure
personal minimums checklist
Personal Minimums Checklist

“If I can count the stars on the flag, I’m not going to fly.”

what are we trying to do
What are we trying to do?

Deliver a kidney Have fun

to a dying

Person

Get my Impress

family home someone

94 pilot error
94%

Pilot Error

Safer Skies
safer skies3
Safer Skies
  • Knowledge
  • Training
  • Discipline
www faasafety gov
www.faasafety.gov
  • Informational Material
  • Notices of items you desire
    • TFRs, Unapproved Parts, Flight Schools, Newsletters, Airspace Changes, and many more
  • Notices of Safety Seminars
    • and last minute cancellations
  • List of contacts (FAASTeam Reps)
  • 72% of Quincy pilots not registered
  • 63% of Quincy CFIs not registered
want to learn more about icing
Want to learn more about icing?

1. Register

2. Learning Center

pilot proficiency award program
Pilot Proficiency Award Program
  • “Wings”
  • Attend a safety meeting
  • Three (3) hours of training with an authorized instructor
    • Slow flight and stalls
    • Takeoffs and landings
    • Hood work
slide140
ASRS

The FAA offers a Get Out of Jail, Free card.

special thanks
Special Thanks
  • Director Mark E. Hanna
    • Quincy Airport Manager
  • Mr. Michael H. Curtis
    • Captain Red
  • The FAA
    • which believes there are no borders to safety
feedback
Feedback

The Central Region FAA Safety Team (FAASTeam) is dedicated to Quality Customer Service and we would value your feedback.  Please provide your feedback at:

http:// www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/avs/offices/afs/qms

(it’s all on the handout)

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