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RegPol Model links and integration

RegPol Model links and integration. Modellforum CREE- CenSES 24. oktober 2013 Per Ivar Helgesen. Project structure. National Macro models (MSG, MODAG) Multiregional SCGE model Local model (PANDA). Development of technologies Use of energy carriers Regional and national level

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RegPol Model links and integration

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  1. RegPolModel links and integration Modellforum CREE-CenSES 24. oktober 2013 Per Ivar Helgesen

  2. Project structure National Macro models (MSG, MODAG) Multiregional SCGE model Localmodel (PANDA) Development oftechnologies Useofenergycarriers Regional and nationallevel TIMES

  3. Linking - Topdown

  4. Bottom up

  5. Topdownmodels • Economics • High levelofabstraction • The economy as a whole Bottom up • Engineering • Technology rich • Physicallawsof nature

  6. Hybrid… Foto: StanislavJelen

  7. Hybrid modeling(Hourcadeet al 2006)

  8. MSG-TECH Bygget på den generelle likevektsmodellen MSG6 Representerer teknologiske muligheter ut over dem som eksisterer i dag, slik som energisystemmodeller Hybrid model

  9. Different types of linking Separate models Soft linkedmodels Hard linkedmodels (automated data exchange) Integrated model

  10. Integration possible? TIMES CGE Linear program Complementarity

  11. Complementarity Problems NLP Other non-optimization based problems e.g. spatial price equilibria, traffic equilibria, Nash-Cournotgames convex LP QP The Bigger Picture • KKT conditions Source: Prof. Steven Gabriel

  12. Separate models Top-down and bottom-up models Hybrid models Top-down CGE and bottom-up optimisation modelslinked Modular hybrid models Integrated model Complementarity problem

  13. Research question Will linkedmodels and an integratedmodelproducethe same solutions? Whichconditions must be fulfilled?

  14. What'sthepoint? These are different models that complements each others By linking the models, both should improve their accuracy – and the existing expertise is better utilised Linking the models provides a richer hybrid model for analysis – which consequently should lead to improved decisions and decision support The linked models calculates other results than the individual models do It could be easier to manage the expertise by linking the (stand-alone) models instead of integrating them. It is probably easier to test and develop the models separately.

  15. How to do it?

  16. Translation Separate models Soft linkedmodels Hard linkedmodels (automated data exchange) Integrated model PhysicalflowsMonetaryvalues

  17. Model dimensions Industries Time Regions

  18. Subnational regions in Norway TIMES Norway Regional accountsstatistics

  19. Matcingindustries in themodels Services, industries and industrialtransportation TIMES Norway demandsectors

  20. Time dimension – granularity • TIMES-Norway • Day/night, weekend, seasons • 260 timeslices (52*5) • Dynamicmodel • Perfect foresight • CGE-models • Yearlynumbers from nationalaccounts • Oftenstaticmodels • Dynamicrecursive, intertemporalpathsbetweenequilibria

  21. 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2040 2040 2040 2030 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2010 2010 Equilibrium model Time dimension– using a static CGE … 2050 2010 Energy- systems model Energy- systems model Equilibrium model Energy- systems model Equilibrium model Energy- systems model Equilibrium model Energy- systems model Equilibrium model

  22. To do… SCGE TIMES CGE Linking • "Spatial" versus "multiregional" •  Introduction of New Economic Geography (NEG) elements, such as • increasing returns to scale • transport costs • labor mobility

  23. Experiences

  24. Iterations and convergence - Oscillations (TIMES EMEC 2012) Iron&Steel Aluminum Copper Cement Paper Paper hi quality low quality

  25. Ongoingprojects linking TIMES and CGE • Portugal: HybTEP • Danmark: IntERACT

  26. TIMES in GAMS

  27. Linking themodels

  28. Thankyou for yourattention per.ivar.helgesen@enova.no

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