Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector
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Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030: Eastern vector. Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia. Joint Symposium August 30 – September 3, 2010 within framework of Baikal Economic Forum. IES. ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 and its PREDECESSORS.

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Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030: Eastern vector

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Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030: Eastern vector

Dr. Alexey Gromov

Deputy General Director

Institute for Energy Strategy

Moscow, Russia

Joint Symposium

August 30 – September 3, 2010

within framework of Baikal Economic Forum


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 and its PREDECESSORS

Conception of the state energy policy in

new economic conditions

(Ratified by the Government: №26 of 10.09.92)

1992

Decree of the President №472

of 07.08.95 «About the basic directions of

the state energy policy»

1995

Fundamentals of the ES - 2010

(Ratified by the Government: №1006 of 13.10.95)

ES – 2020

(approved be decree №1234-r of the Government

of the Russian Federation of 28.08.03)

2003

ES – 2030

approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government

of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009

2009

2


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING

ES-2020

ES-2030

Target Modeling

Forecasts and Scenarios

3


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

1ST STAGE

2ND STAGE

3RDSTAGE

IES

2020

2022

2013

2015

Share of Energy sector in Economy

Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector

Modernization of Energy sector

Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector

Innovative development of Energy sector

New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East)

Highly effective use of traditional power resources

Switch to the Energy of the Future

Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population

STAGES OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2030

2009

2030

4


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

PRINCIPLE of TIME SHIFTING in the ES-2030

(example of electricity production and consumption)

2 years

2 years

1 year

1 year

Moderate scenario

Innovative scenario

Moderate scenario

Innovative scenario

Risks of an exit of scenarios for limits of a base look-ahead field are considered through possible time shifts of termination years of the 1stand 2nd stages of ES-2030

5


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

ES-2030 in the SYSTEM of STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS

for the EASTERN SIBERIA and the FAR EAST

Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years

2009-2030

Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020

ES-2030

Strategy of socio-economical development of the Far East and Baikal region up to 2025

Strategy of development of Eastern Siberia and the Far East up to 2030

Program of development of oil processing capacity in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East

Eastern

Gas

Program

Investment programs of energy companies

6


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK

Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector

task №19«Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–17%»

task №10«Implementation of a complex of program measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development in the Eastern Siberia and Far East»

task № 17«Extended reproduction and attraction of human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern Siberia and Far East»

Eastern vector

Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector: Eastern vector

Energy infrastructure: development and diversification

ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program, petro- and gas-chemistry development

Development of oil and gas complexes

in Eastern regions of Russia

Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk regions

Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of the Northern Sea Way

Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic shelf

Large-scale development of hydro energy and renewables

Non-fuel energy

Modernization of electric power and heat supply systems in the Region

Energy saving

7


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION

OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT

Forecast of oil and oil products export

Forecast of gas export

8


Energy strategy of russia up to 2030 eastern vector

IES

KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST

  • Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline

  • Sakhalin projects

  • Eastern Gas Program

  • Hydroelectricty and Renewables

9


First results of es 2030 careful optimism

FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM

IES

10


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