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Higher Education: evidence on student outcomes May 2011

Higher Education: evidence on student outcomes May 2011. Robin Naylor Economics, Warwick. Themes 1. Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility . . . or persistence? 2. Willetts ’ queue-jumpers A dark cloud . . . but with a silver lining? 3. Browne , fees and the public benefit

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Higher Education: evidence on student outcomes May 2011

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  1. Higher Education: evidence on student outcomesMay 2011 Robin Naylor Economics, Warwick Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  2. Themes 1. Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility . . . or persistence? 2. Willetts’ queue-jumpers A dark cloud . . . but with a silver lining? 3. Browne, fees and the public benefit Evidence on the private returns Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  3. 1. Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility . . . or persistence? Consider evidence on mobility in UK (PTO) Comparisons: UK vs US vs Nordic countries (role of education) UK: 1958 born vs 1970 born (Gregg-Machin on HE) Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  4. Socio-economic Mobility Transition Matrix: UK, Father/Son Fig 1: An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK (NCDS) 18th May 2011

  5. Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility . . . or persistence? Consider evidence on mobility in UK Comparisons: UK vs US vs Nordic countries (role of education) UK: 1958 born vs 1970 born (Gregg-Machin on HE) Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  6. Socio-economic mobility Role of pre-HE Crucial: most differences in educational outcomes by family background are established by age 16 . . . Role of HE . . . but differences continue intoHE (and beyond) Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  7. If A-levels are a level-playing field and there is no financial deterrent from fees. A Socio-economic mobility Differences continue into HE W Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  8. But if A-levels are not a level-playing field . . . A i j Socio-economic mobility Differences continue into HE W Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  9. Socio-economic mobility There is clear evidence that A-levels are not a level-playing field: Naylor and Smith (OBES) + HEFCE + Schwartz http://www.warwick.ac.uk/go/robinnaylor/publications/obes2001.pdf (page 10) Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  10. Themes Figure 2 leads neatly to a discussion of: 2. Willetts’ queue-jumpers A dark cloud . . . but with a silver lining? Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  11. A Willetts’ queue-jumpers W Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  12. A A further concern: If up-front fees are phased in . . . W Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  13. A An alternative to the graduate tax: High Fees and Generous income-related grants + fair admissions W Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  14. 3. Browne, fees and the public benefit Economists’ concept of external benefits/costs imply subsidies/taxes e.g. Vaccination/tax on tobacco Browne: No external benefits from HE (quote) Hence withdrawal of public subsidy Academic community has not won argument about public benefits of HE Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  15. 3. Browne, fees and the public benefit Let’s just consider the private benefits Dearing £400k premium over a lifetime Browne: £120k (different methodology) But both ignore variation around average (other than by institution and course) Yet these are considerable . . . Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  16. Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  17. Evidence of returns to HE from birth cohort studies in Britain? HE API HE API Earnings premium (%) +4 cohortsMen Women NCDS 13% (1977) 14% 12-18 34-38 1958 Birth cohort BCS70 1970 Birth cohort 1 Conceals extent of growth in female participation in HE. 18% (1989)1 30% 15 18 Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  18. Selected Results of occupational earnings equation for the 1993 cohort     MALES FEMALES Variable CoeffCoeff Degree class I 0.038*** 0.037*** II.1 (default) II.2 -0.054*** -0.042*** III -0.094*** -0.053*** Other -0.080*** -0.079*** Combined with our BCS70 results: Average Graduate Premium = £120k (Browne) Av Premium for Grad with 1st/2.1 = £160k Av Premium for Grad with 2.2/3 = £80k Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

  19. Returns by degree class (all UK university students) Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

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