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Ukraine

Ukraine. SWOT Analysis 29 Jan 2008 Tom Gill, Seminar 1. Ukrainian Facts and Figures. Geography 600K Sq KM, rolling plains, Carpathians, Crimean Borders Bel, Rus, Rom, Mol, Pol, Slo, Hun Demographics Pop 46M, 62/73, Declining growth 78% Ethnic Ukrainian, 17% Russian

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Ukraine

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  1. Ukraine SWOT Analysis 29 Jan 2008 Tom Gill, Seminar 1

  2. Ukrainian Facts and Figures • Geography • 600K Sq KM, rolling plains, Carpathians, Crimean • Borders Bel, Rus, Rom, Mol, Pol, Slo, Hun • Demographics • Pop 46M, 62/73, Declining growth • 78% Ethnic Ukrainian, 17% Russian • Main Cities Kiev, Lvov, Odessa • Governance • Parliamentary Presidential Govt • Viktor Yuschenko, Yulia Tymoshenko • Yuschenko leads coalition govt, next elections 2009 • Military • 13th largest, 126th best funded, Conscript based

  3. Ukrainian Facts and Figures • Geography • 600K Sq KM, rolling plains, Carpathians, Crimean • Borders Bel, Rus, Rom, Mol, Pol, Slo, Hun • Demographics • Pop 46M, 62/73, Declining growth • 78% Ethnic Ukrainian, 17% Russian • Main Cities Kiev, Lvov, Odessa • Governance • Parliamentary Presidential Govt • Viktor Yuschenko, Yulia Tymoshenko • Yuschenko leads coalition govt, next elections 2009 • Military • 13th largest, 126th best funded, Conscript based

  4. Ukrainian Strengths • Agricultural Self Reliance • Self-sufficiency for food, but at high prices • Grain Exporter, 60% Arable Land, rich soil • Maritime Access • Rich in Mineral resources • 30% of world’s Mn, huge Ti/Fe/Coal reserves • Economic Growth • Attractive to financial sector • Stock Market growth 110% in 2007

  5. Ukrainian Weaknesses • Divided Parliament • Orange Revolution Promise Unfulfilled • Pro-western factions maintaining slight majority • Energy Dependence on Russia • Vital Gas pipeline corridor to Europe • Nuclear Power produces 40% of Electricity • Agricultural Industry Unreformed • Corruption and Infrastructure Issues

  6. Ukrainian Opportunities • Current regime looking towards Europe • NATO membership remains a goal • Tied to Mil reform and elimination of corruption • Plan on hold, not yet a MAP invitee • Unity of Vision • Both sides realize potential of a United, independent Ukraine with economic vitality • EU membership? • EU parliament dangles the carrot, ties membership to disentanglement of economic from political processes

  7. Threats to The Ukraine • Current regime looking towards Europe • Russia reluctant to see relationship wither • Can apply pressure through ener/econ policies • Oil and Gas Utility near bankruptcy • PM Tymoshenko’s most pressing problem • Chernobyl Legacy • Widely varying impact assessments • Greenpeace; 230K deaths so far, 100K to come • IACR; total of 16K attributable deaths thru 2056

  8. In Summary • Ukraine’s Future? • Progress slow and steady • Difficult balancing act • Continued reform leads to increased Euro-Atlantic confidence • Stagnation will only marginalize a nation with considerable natural and national potential

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