Why Nations Fail. Elusive Quest for Growth. Exorbitant Privilege. Talvi : New International Monetary Architecture. Antholis : China/India Federalism. McMafia : Global Crime. Reinhart: Debt and Crisis. Kimenyi : Educational Reform Can It Scale?. Gaddy : Virtual Economy Bear Trap.
Elusive Quest for Growth
Debt and Crisis
Can It Scale?
Is This Time
Heightened income inequality: Global elite…the 1 % …the 0.01 %
Heightened spatial inequality
Conquest of geography?
Fragility and crisis New international monetary architecture?
Floating and Its Discontents
Managed float: intervention $ reserves $ privilege
Currency misalignments Currency crises
Latin America’s “Lost Decade”
Global demand for $s Capital inflows to US
US International Debt Threat of “Bank Run”
The US Housing Bubble (Developed) World in a Slump
Dysfunctional US Finance/Dysfunctional US Politics
Why a €?
German competitiveness Current account surpluses
Financial bubbles/Housing bubbles/Fiscal bubbles
Crash Brit and Dutch Screwed
Crash Russians Screwed
Downward pressure on demand, output, and employment
Reinhart: For a banking crisis, don’t need external debt, just debt
“Excessive debt accumulation, whether it be by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.”
“Such large-scale debt buildups pose risks because they make an economy vulnerable to crises of confidence, particularly when debt is short term and needs to be constantly refinanced.”
Highly leveraged economies “can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang! - confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.“
Eight centuries of experience suggests this time is not different.
Consequences of banking crises
“A recession is no time to cut spending”
Kazakhstan: Caspian caviar
Russia – Gazprom – Ukraine – Hungary: Pipeline scam
Dubai: A perfect laundry
Nigeria: 419 scam: I go chop your dollar.
Soviet growth under extractive institutions
The Post-Soviet Virtual Economy
Unsustainable Bear Trap
Ukraine: central the Stalin and Hitler visions
1928: First Five-Year Plan...Accumulate surplus value
Collectivize agriculture: War for Grain
Crops the property of the Soviet State
Liquidate the kulak class
Decision by a troika
Exile to forced labor: canals, mines, factories
Kazakhstan, Urals, Siberia
Remain to farm...to starve
The Toll: 2 ½ million “missing” in Ukraine census
7 million “missing” in Soviet census