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Forecast Global Product Turnover

Global Product Turnover (Long-term Trends in OEM New-Product Starts Including a Glimpse at the Next Decade). Forecast Global Product Turnover.

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Forecast Global Product Turnover

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  1. Global Product Turnover(Long-term Trends in OEM New-Product Starts Including a Glimpse at the Next Decade)

  2. Forecast Global Product Turnover Production of new and redesigned vehicles based on the year each program started production and the carryover volume into subsequent years based on start-year • In 2021, nearly three-fourths of production programs that started beginning in 2015 • In terms of long-term RFQs, 2018 and 2019 will be somewhat weak; next “wave” in 2020 • Over one-fourth of 2021 production volume will be comprised of pre-2015 programs. • Expect much of that in post-2021 to be either phased out or replaced by existing programs; not new programs

  3. Global Program Count • Although they will account for three-fourths of global volume, it’s interesting that only about 50% of existing programs in 2014 will be replaced by 2021, meaning half will still be around – majority of old programs still will be produced in Asia (including China); about 25% still will exist in Europe

  4. Global Program Turnover from 2014 by Segment Grouping (Cumulative beginning 2015; based on production volume) • Segment groups (cars, CUVs) primarily oriented to passenger carrying will have the most turnover • Turnover weak in all van segments: small commercial, midsize (minivans) and large vans • China will be a haven for pre-2015 midsize vans • Europe manufacturers cling to production of old small- and large-van programs • Large pickups and SUVs built in North America, which in 2021 will account for 60% of global large-pickups and 85% of large SUVs, have high turnover rate • The remainder, mostly in emerging Asian markets from smaller OEMs, are the relatively stagnant part • A good portion of old Mid SUVs still around in 2021 will be based on designs from top OEMs, but built and sold by smaller manufacturers Car and CUV turnover, or new programs, spike in 2020-2021

  5. Regional Share of New Vehicle Programs by CY Surge in Japan Share each region will have of the new programs scheduled to start in each stated calendar year. Each region includes programs also starting in other regions in same year.

  6. Volkswagen Forecast Product Turnover • New-product push late-2016 into 2018 (carryover from 2017 starts) • Majority of these programs are B- and C-cars (i.e., Jetta/Bora) and small CUVs • A smaller wave slated in 2020 of lower volume programs • Expect at least two-thirds of 2016-2017 programs to be replaced in 2022-2023 • Another wave in 2026-2027

  7. Toyota Forecast Product Turnover • Toyota on track to turn over just 65% of volume in 7 years, well below industry average • Overhaul of powertrain portfolio in meantime will act somewhat as product enhancement • Rebound in 2020-21 leads to near finalization of portfolio turnover in 2022 • Expect next wave of new product starts in 2022-2023 with lead-vehicles the Camry, Land Cruiser, RAV-4, Yaris

  8. Renault/Nissan Forecast Product Turnover • Renault/Nissan has sluggish turnover rate until 2020-21 • Another push anticipated for 2022 when it largely completes turnover of its pre-2015 portfolio • Turnover of 2015-plus ramps up during 2024-2026

  9. General Motors Forecast Product Turnover • General Motors new-program rollout more well-balanced than most • Also, turning over 90%-plus of portfolio by 2021 • Post -2021 turnover should stay balanced • Expect a bump in 2024 with emphasis on Gamma-based vehicles and large pickups

  10. Ford Forecast Product Turnover • Ford turnover on par with industry • Surge of 2018-starts mostly from C2 platform (Focus, Escape, Kuga, etc.) with 2023-2024 being major replacement for those vehicles • Thrust of 2020 spike from North American large pickups, and small CUVs in Asia and South America • Overall turnover above average 2022-2024

  11. Hyundai/Kia Forecast Product Turnover • Hyundai/Kia turnover above industry but still building a lot of “older” new models in 2021 • But surge in 2020-2021continues into 2022 when portfolio turnover from pre-2015 programs complete • Production of 2015 starts almost entirely ends in 2022, too, with replacement of programs for small CUVs (i.e., Tucson), and D-size cars (i.e., Optima) • Expect above-average new-program starts in 2024-2025

  12. Honda Forecast Product Turnover • Honda nearly turns over entire portfolio by 2020 • Huge changeover late-2019 through 2021(55% of portfolio) • Expect those vehicles to be mostly re-engineered circa 2025 • Overall above average turnover in 2024-2025

  13. Fiat-Chrysler Forecast Product Turnover • Fiat-Chrysler’s big wave second-half 2016 through mid-2018 (2017 carryover) • Expect next push, especially in North America and China, in 2022 and 2023; Europe in 2023/2024

  14. PSA/Peug.-Cit. Forecast Production Turnover • PSA/P.C. overall turnover picks up with small wave in 2016/2017 • Bigger wave in 2020 • Expect 2022-2023 and 2025-2026 for above average turnover

  15. Daimler Forecast Product Turnover • First wave with 2015 starts; second wave with 2018 new programs • Expect next turnover peak circa 2023

  16. BMW Forecast Product Turnover • BMW a little more balanced roll out than other OEMs • Nearly complete turnover by 2021 • Expect next wave of turnover in 2023/2024, spearheaded by X3, X5, 5-Series, Countryman, others

  17. SUMMARY: Preliminary Post-2021 Look • Above-average number of new programs for cars and CUVs scheduled for 2020/2021 • A lot can change, but 2022, 2024 and 2025 globally look like peak recycling years in the post-2021 period • B- and C-size cars, small and mid-CUVs poised for big increase in new programs over other segments post-2021. • Weak turnover of pickups and SUVs in next seven years could indicate big decline in number of those vehicles • My opinion: Likely not a lot of direct replacements. Probably replaced by a combination of expansion of existing, although newer platforms/programs in those segments, and increased penetration of cars and CUVs • Post-2021, a lot of old product across Asia (including China) will be discontinued or replaced by newer product; same for Europe, though to a lesser extent

  18. THANK YOU!

  19. CONTACT US TODAY: LISA WILLIAMSON lwilliamson@wardsauto.com 248-799-2642 AMBER MCLINCHA amclincha@wardsauto.com 248-799-2622

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