Atmospheric chemistry and the climate system
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Atmospheric Chemistry and the Climate System. Martin G. Schultz, Thomas Diehl, Claire Granier, Judith Hölzemann, Shyam Lal, Bärbel Langmann, Ulrike Niemeier, Sebastian Rast Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002.

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Atmospheric chemistry and the climate system

Atmospheric Chemistryand the Climate System

Martin G. Schultz, Thomas Diehl, Claire Granier, Judith Hölzemann, Shyam Lal, Bärbel Langmann, Ulrike Niemeier, Sebastian Rast

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002


Feedbacks chemistry climate

Strat.-trop.

Exchange

Deposition of

HNO3, NOx, SO2, ozone

Lightning

NOx Prod.

Altitude

Emissions of

DMS, VOCs, NOx, CO, ...

Aerosol-Cloud

Interactions

Ozone

+

Particles

Eutrophication,

Fertilization,

Acidification

Absorption and

Scattering of Radiation

Reaction

Rates

Transport pathways

Scavenging

Rates

Release of ozone and

sulfate precursor species

Feedbacks Chemistry  Climate


The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere example for a bidirectional feedback

CO

CH4

O3

VOC

?

NOx

The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere - Example for a bidirectional feedback

OH


Tropospheric ozone budget and long range transport of pollution

Tropospheric Ozone Budgetand Long-range transport of pollution

from IPCC 2001


Factors controlling the tropospheric ozone budget

Stratospheric

Ozone

NO2

OH

VOC

O2

RO2

NO

HO2

Chemistry

Dynamics

Transport

Tropospheric

Ozone

Temperature

Humidity

Emissions

(NOx, VOC, CO, CH4)

Factors controlling the tropospheric ozone budget


Tropospheric ozone trend

Maximum 8-hour mean

ozone concentrations at

English surface stations

Ozone concentrations in maritime air masses at Zugspitze

from Scheel et al., 2002

Tropospheric ozone trend

Maximum 8-hour mean

ozone concentrations

at British stations

from Eurotrac S&I, 2002


Long range transport of air pollution export from north america

Long-range transport of air pollution:Export from North America


Long range transport of air pollution import into europe

Long-range transport of air pollution:Import into Europe

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

North America

East Asia

Simulated CO concentrations over Europe, May 2001, ca. 850 hPa


Interannual variability in transport

Ozone difference (Sep. 1997-Sep. 1998)

-20

-20

-10

-10

-5

-2

-2

2

5

10

20

ppb

CO difference (Sep. 1997-Sep. 1998)

Interannual variability in transport

Changes in transport pathwayslead to significantly differenttrace gas concentrations.Direct effect: different pathway from emission sourcesto receptor region

Indirect effect: north-southshift/vertical transport different chemistry(temperature, radiation, humidity)

Same emissions, winds from ECMWF


Conceptual picture of major transport pathways

boundary layer flow

free trop. transport

Conceptual picture of major transport pathways

WCB

Asia

NorthAmerica

WCB

Europe


Using chemical measurements on aircraft to quantify export and import fluxes

Using chemical measurements on aircraft to quantify export and import fluxes

  • Direct involvement in large-scale field experiments (e.g. NASA TRACE-P, North Pacific, spring 2001; MINOS, Crete, summer 2001)

  • Modeling support for analysis of other field experiments (e.g. INDOEX, 1998, 1999; CONTRACE, 2001; BIBLE, 1997, 1998)


Co tracer forecasts during trace p

CO tracer forecasts during TRACE-P

before the campaign: planning of flight patterns

during the campaign: daily forecasts of CO

after the campaign: analysis with tagged CO

and full chemistry model

Objectives:

Determine the chemical composition of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific in spring in order to understand and quantify the export of chemically and radiatively important gases and aerosols, and their precursors, from the Asian continent.

Determine the chemical evolution of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific in spring and to understand the ensemble of processes that control this evolution.


Example for model evaluation

altitude

observed

model

Example for model evaluation

Comparison of model results along TRACE-P flight track DC-8

for 7 March 2001 (local flight out of Hong Kong)


Evaluating the forecast quality

analysis

18-h forecast

66-h forecast

114-h forecast

Evaluating the forecast quality

Example for 7 March 2001, 0600 UTC, ca. 850 hPa


Measurement model comparison indoex 1999

Measurement-Model Comparison INDOEX 1999


Linking global and regional models

Linking global and regional models

Effect of time-varying boundary conditions on Ozone concentrations over Germany

global model global+regional model regional model

Ozone in ppb


Interpretation of satellite data

Slant column

Air mass factor =

Vertical column

Interpretation of satellite data

Use of models to determine airmass factor (dependent on geometry,zenith angle, albedo, ...)

Collaboration with Institutefor Remote Sensing, Universityof Bremen


Outlook

Outlook

Objective:

to provide a quantitative and consistent

description of the global tropospheric

budget of ozone

Tools:

full chemistry model MOZART, ECHAM tagged CO tracer model, and regional model REMO

Coordinating EU project:

REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years


Biomass burning emissions

Biomass burning emissions

Significant emission source for many trace gases (and aerosol)

Large interannual variability in distribution and magnitude

Competition between man-made and natural fires

Fire characteristics ecosystem dependent

Ecosystems respond to fire

Impact of climate change


A new global inventory for biomass burning emissions using satellite observations of burned areas

A new global inventory for biomass burning emissions using satellite observations of burned areas

M = EF x A x  x afl

GLOBSCAR data from ESA/ESRIN


Assessing the variability of biomass burning emissions

Assessing the variability of biomass burning emissions

OCTOBER „Climatology“

Use of active fire counts (ATSR)to scale a climatological emission

inventory


Case study 1 indonesia 1997 1998

Case study 1: Indonesia 1997/1998

Scaled inventory from global model

Aerosol simulations from regional model REMO

Importance of peat fires!

(90% of emissions from Borneo)

Severly understimated when using

satellite data to estimate emissions


Case study 2 sydney december 2001

Case Study 2: Sydney, December 2001

AVHRR image 01/01/2002

MODIS AOD average(courtesy A. Chu, NASA)

Model simulation (MOZART) in T85L47, ECMWF winds, daily emissionestimates using MODIS fire counts [near-surface CO in ppb]


Outlook1

Outlook

Refine of global inventory, extension to multiple years

Investigate impact of Indonesian peat fire aerosol on meteorology

Analyse role of volcanoes for sulfur content in Indonesian peatfire emissions

Contrast Sydney 2001 with Sydney 2002

Develop methods for estimating biomass burning emissions based on meteorological parameters


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