The next generation air transportation system ngats
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The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS). Bruce Carmichael Forecasting Team Co-lead Weather IPT 303-497-8406. What We Face. 60-80% of traffic delays have a weather connection

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The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS)

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The next generation air transportation system ngats

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS)

Bruce Carmichael

Forecasting Team Co-lead

Weather IPT

303-497-8406


What we face

What We Face

  • 60-80% of traffic delays have a weather connection

  • If traffic counts grow anywhere near projections (JPDO NGATS), ability of current system to accommodate growth is essentially impossible

  • System breakdown unavoidable unless capacity grows by 2 to 3 times

  • Caveat: we must plan for a future still full of unknowns, never-the-less (airline difficulties, terrorism, natural calamity, etc.)

  • The system must have much more capacity and be safe


Ngats organizations

NGATS ORGANIZATIONS

  • Department of Transportation

  • Federal Aviation Administration

  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  • Department of Commerce

  • Department of Defense

  • Department of Homeland Security

  • Office of Science and Technology Planning

  • The NGATS Institute


2025 ngats concept

2025 NGATS Concept

Operating Principles

  • “It’s about the users…”

  • System-wide transformation

  • Prognostic approach to safety assessment

  • Globally harmonized

  • Environmentally compatible to foster continued growth

Key Capabilities

  • Net-Enabled Information Access

  • Performance-Based Services

  • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making

  • Layered, Adaptive Security

  • Broad-Area Precision Navigation

  • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations

  • “Equivalent Visual” Operations

  • “Super Density” Operations


System wide transformation innovation across all lines of development

Organization

Policy

Culture

Organization

Culture

Technology

Technology

Policy

Technology

Innovation

System-Wide TransformationInnovation Across All Lines of Development

Policy Change/Creation

Organizational Innovation

Culture Acceptance


The next generation air transportation system ngats

Net-Enabled Information Access

Global secure access, information handled according to “communities of interest”

  • “Shared Situation Awareness”

    • Real-time free-flow of info from private, commercial, & government sources, integrated internationally

    • Tailored, responsive and secure

    • Push/pull processes

    • Common awareness of day-to-day ops, events, crises

  • Aircraft are integral “nodes” in network

  • Integrated cooperative air traffic and non-cooperative national security surveillance


The next generation air transportation system ngats

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations

Adjust airspace configuration to meet user needs

  • 4D trajectories (including taxi and roll-out) are basis for planning and execution

  • Machine-based trajectory analysis and separation assurance

  • Includes environmental performance throughout all phases of aircraft operations

  • Airspace configuration driven by: DoD/DHS requirements, domestic & international user needs, requirements for special-use airspace, safety, environment, overall efficiency

  • Airspace reconfigurable during day of operations

  • Users “contract” for airspace access and service


Aircraft trajectory based operations management by trajectory

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations:Management-by-Trajectory

Strategic Domain

Tactical Domain

Separation Mgmt Domain

Airspace Organization and Management

Airport Operations

Airspace User Operations

Demand & EnvironmentalPerformance Balancing

Information Management

ATM Service Delivery Management

Conformance Monitoring

Clearance

Projected Profiles

Planned Profiles

User Requested

Profile

Agreement

Weather, Aggregate Flow, Airport Configuration/Infrastructure

  • Key Issues are functional allocation between:

  • Automation and humans

  • Aircraft operators and service provider


Aircraft trajectory based operations evaluator

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations:“Evaluator”

  • Integrates/communicates weather, security, defense, environmental, safety, international considerations, other information

  • Users “post”/update desired 4D trajectories in common system that continuously evaluates mutual compatibility

  • Predicts potential “over demand” situations, in multiple “capacity dimensions”—traffic density, environmental, security, etc.

  • Works across all time horizons from days/weeks/months prior to flight up to separation management (20 minutes or less)

  • Supports distributed decision-making environment where players have clear, agreed-upon roles and interactions


The next generation air transportation system ngats

Equivalent Visual Operations

Increasing capacity from today’s non-visual conditions

  • Aircraft perform "equivalent visual" operations in non-visual conditions (achieve “VFR capacity” under these conditions)

  • ATM provider delegates “maintain separation” responsibility to aircraft operators

    • Requires timely, high fidelity information on nearby aircraft, weather, etc

  • System-wide availability at all air portals

    • With appropriately capable “landside” (including security)

  • Greater predictability of operations at busy airports, including ground operations


The next generation air transportation system ngats

Weather Assimilated into Decisions

Common weather picture across NGATS

  • Fuse global weather observations and forecasts into single information system, dynamically update as needed

    • Tens of 1000’s of sensors (airborne & ground) feed 100’s of forecast models

  • Learning automation accounts for weather and its uncertainties in managing aircraft trajectories

  • Identify hazardous weather real-time

  • Assimilated into NGATS “decision loops”

    • Total integration via machine-to-machine

    • Critical decision system time scales using both probabilistic and deterministic weather info

    • Optimized to maximize available weather-favorable airspace

    • Terminal weather impacts including ground/ramp ops and adaptability due to wind shift changes


2025 ngats vision

2025 NGATS Vision

  • The number and complexity of NGATS command and control decisions at any given moment will require the total system to be largely automated

  • This requires weather information to be passed digitally, rather than as text or graphic products

  • The “system” will use smart pull technology to obtain required weather information for any given decision

  • Traditional aviation weather products will be reduced or outright eliminated (e.g., Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Area Forecasts…)

As needed presentation of three-dimensional weather information, projected into the future, will allow the National Airspace System’s operational systems to make weather-savvy decisions


Weather in the future

Weather in the Future

  • Common weather picture – A “data cube” will ensure NGATS users share consistent information

  • It’s not about looking at a lot of sensor data, its about providing an accurate diagnosis and forecast of phenomena that are important to aviation

  • Weather information fully integrated into all ground- and cockpit-based decision support systems/tools

    • 4DT based on current and forecast weather

    • Real time weather updates posted and pushed to all impacted subscribers

  • Probabilistic forecasts enable prognostic, risk-based decisions on allowing aircraft to tactically traverse certain weather phenomena

    • Enables capacity management

    • Opens more airspace to the system

DST algorithms are owned by the operators not weather.

Weather is just one input to the algorithm


Ngats jpdo aviation weather ipt

NGATS/JPDO Aviation Weather IPT

  • Observations (improved suite)

  • Forecasts (new science, automation, probability)

  • Dissemination (4D Weather Information System)

  • Integration (critical joining of weather with ATM)

  • Aircraft Mitigation (harden aircraft for weather)

  • Training (“just-in-time”)

  • Policy

  • Systems Engineering


Emphasis and priorities 4 d weather official product of the future

Emphasis and Priorities:4–D Weather -- Official Product of the Future

1

X

X

18

Z

Y

12

0

X

Probability Distribution

Function of Magnitude

18:30

  • Convection

  • Turbulence

  • Icing

  • Snowfall

  • Ceiling

  • Visibility

  • Radiation from Space

  • Wind Speed

  • Wind Direction

  • Temperature

  • Humidity

  • Noise Propagation Potential

  • Airport Plume Concentration

  • Atmospheric Sensitivity to Exhaust

  • Volcanic Ash Concentration

  • Wake/Vortex Dissipation Potential


Production of aviation weather products the jpdo vision

NWP

Models

Automated

Intelligent

Forecast

Systems

4-D

Global

Database

Custom

Graphics

Generators

Observations

Custom

Alphanumeric

Generators

Human

Forecaster

Input

Production of aviation weather products – the JPDO vision

  • This plan includes many factors

  • in strategic and tactical airspace

  • management, such as:

  • Aircraft separation

  • Hazardous weather separation

  • Time en route

  • Fuel burn

  • Noise impact

  • Environmental impact

Constantly Refreshed

Statistical

Systems

Automated

Decision

Support

Systems


Aviation weather dissemination 2025 foundation for net enabled weather operations

Aviation Weather Dissemination, 2025Foundation for Net-Enabled Weather Operations

Air-Air

Rides on Net Enabled

Information System

AIR-Ground

A-G/A-A

I/F

Urgent Wx

Aircraft Networks and

Wx Sensors/Displays

Net-Centric Enterprise Services

and Network Shared Services

Community of

Interest

A-G/A-A

I/F

Ground-Ground

A/C pulled

and pushed Wx

Controllers

Displays

AOC

Community of

Interest

Displays

Displays

Aircraft Wx Obs

And Wx requests

Evaluator and DSS

Wx Processed into ATM Decisions

With Drill Down Available

Communities of Interest

community of

Interest

Community of

Interest

Authoritative Wx

Pulled and Pushed

Forecasting

Multi-sensor QA’ed Obs

Assimilated Obs

Forecast, Nowcast, Diagnosis

Obs to push and

Pull customers

Training

Requested Obs

Airports

Ground/Space

Based

Observations


Summary

Summary

  • Plan to support to broad range of possible NGATS “futures”

    • Actual evolution to target curb-to-curb concept likely will consider multiple alternate paths

    • Develop systems to support those alternatives

    • Transition from today’s system to future system

  • Provide information that support common situational awareness

    • Intelligent fusion of data, models, and predictors into a single authoritative data base

    • Common understanding of the definitions and limitations of the information elements

  • Enable integration of weather information into DSS

    • Develop reliable probabilistic information

    • Develop generic information products that can be customized to meet the needs of service provider and customer systems

    • Develop new products jointly with DSS community


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