1 / 51

Rating Agency Meetings APRIL 20, 2010

Rating Agency Meetings APRIL 20, 2010. Today’s Agenda. 2009 review ERM initiatives Transmission segment Distribution and generation segment Financing requirements Financial forecast. Key Achievements Over the Past Year. Solid execution of strategic initiatives

jules
Download Presentation

Rating Agency Meetings APRIL 20, 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Rating Agency Meetings APRIL 20, 2010

  2. Today’s Agenda • 2009 review • ERM initiatives • Transmission segment • Distribution and generation segment • Financing requirements • Financial forecast

  3. Key Achievements Over the Past Year • Solid execution of strategic initiatives • Earnings, cash flow well ahead of forecast • Key rate case filings made • Strong operational performance • Strong interest in recent financings

  4. Near Term Financing Complete • PSNH $150 million bond issue closed on 12/14/09 • 3 times oversubscribed • Coupon of 4.5% • Ten-year maturity • WMECO $95 million senior unsecured issue closed on 3/8/10 • 2 times oversubscribed • Coupon of 5.1% • Ten-year maturity • CL&P $62 million PCRB remarketing closed 4/1/10 • 6 times oversubscribed • Coupon of 1.4% • One-year mandatory put • Yankee Gas $50 million first mortgage bond is expected to close on or about 4/22/10 • 2.7 times oversubscribed • Coupon of 4.87% • Ten-year maturity • Syndication of new $900 million of bank revolvers to commence shortly

  5. Balance Sheet Strengthened Considerably in 2009 12/31/08 12/31/09 (In millions) $116 $116 1.4% 1.4% $4,776 $4,660 38.2% 60.4% 42.8% 55.8% $3,020 $3,578 Total: $7,912 Total: $8,354 Total debt Common equity Preferred

  6. 2009 Results 13.6% * 5.6% 18.8% Earnings For Common In Millions * Distribution and Generation Transmission Competitive Total Parent/Other *Excludes $29.8 million after-tax charge from March 2008 litigation settlement

  7. Competitive Business Performance Strong During Unwinding • $15.8 million of net income in 2009 • Net income up 20.6% from 2008 • Forecast had been $8.2 million • Strong management of wholesale contracts • $3.8 million of net after-tax mark-to-market gains • 2010 earnings projected to be $7.1 million, cash flow projected to be $7.7 million • 2011-2014 cash flow negative • Wholesale contracts roll off in 2012, 2013

  8. 2009 Results vs. April 2009 Forecast ** ** * * * * * Excludes $57 million of WMECO long-term debt offset by spent nuclear fuel trust assets ** Excludes $288 million of equity associated with acquisition premium Better than forecast Weaker than forecast

  9. NU Continues to Target a Conservative 50% Dividend Payout Ratio EPS Dividends per share Payout ratios

  10. Board of Trustees Chief Executive Officer Chair Risk & Capital Committee Risk Assessment Teams Executive Vice President Operations Chief Financial Officer Director Corporate ERM Corporate ERM Group Distribution/ Generation Risk Controller Transmission Risk Controller Corporate Shared Services Risk Controller Select Energy Risk Controller Risk Analyst Enterprise Risk Management Status Update • ERM is in its fifth year of implementation at NU • ERM works directly with the businesses and corporate shared services functions • Internal Risk Assessment Teams are used to identify, discuss and assess risks; Accountability for risk mitigation remains with the businesses and corporate shared services functions • Regular reports are made to the Board of Trustees on strategic, financial, and operational risks • ERM facilitates a fully functioning Risk and Capital Committee which integrates risk with capital expenditure decisions • ERM principles integrated into strategic planning and budgeting processes with strategic and operating plans “risk rated”

  11. NU’s Risk and Capital Committee (RaCC) • The RaCC is NU’s Risk Committee, where key financial, operational, strategic and business risks are reviewed and discussed. • The RaCC is also NU’s Capital Committee, where capital projects are reviewed and approved per specific guidelines and with a risk perspective. Only the RaCC can authorize spending on certain capital projects or programs in excess of $10 million What is the RaCC? • Responsible for oversight of Enterprise Risk Management and the implementation of the NU Risk Management Policy and Capital Approval Policies and Procedures • Meets monthly or as needed • Reviews all capital projects and programs to recommend for CEO approval. Projects and programs exceeding $50 million are also sent to the NU Board for their review • Reviews all risk assessments in accordance with the NU Risk Management Policy What are the RaCC’s Roles and Responsibilities? • Members • Advisory Team Members and Advisors Director - ERM VP and Treasurer VP – Accounting and Controller VP – Rates and Regulatory VP Finance Director Internal Audit and Security Secretary, Chief Compliance Officer and Deputy General Counsel Assistant General Counsel Executive Director Business Financial Services ERM Business Unit Risk Controllers Executive VP and CFO (Committee Chair) Executive VP and COO Senior VP and General Counsel Senior VP, Enterprise Planning & Development VP Human Resources VP Shared Services Chairman, President and CEO (non-voting) Assistant Secretary (non-voting) • RaCC Charter • NU Risk Management Policy • Capital Approval Policies and Procedures Guiding Documents

  12. Key Themes for March 2010 Update of Strategic Risks • Rates & Regulatory:Principal focus is on rate case outcomes for CL&P and PSNH; settlement options are being discussed and rate case planning for WMECO and Yankee Gas is underway. Cost-cutting efforts and ongoing education, discussions and other communications with key stakeholders are additional mitigations. • Policy Changes: Companies continue to monitor potential national energy policy, including carbon legislation and an interconnection-wide transmission planning process and cost allocation. PSNH continues its RGGI program. • Capital Deployment: Work to advance NEEWS continues, with positive approval from the Massachusetts Environmental Policy Act office stating that the proposed route for Greater Springfield (GSRP) portion of NEEWS is preferred, thus opening the door to siting and other required federal and state environmental permitting agency actions on applications. Advancement of the HQ HVDC project is ongoing, with negotiations on key documents underway and NU working closely with the NH legislature and its Transmission Committee. • Operations:Risk of underinvestment in infrastructure remains a concern. 2009 scheduled maintenance was completed. While resolution efforts continue, uncollectibles remain high. Meetings with MA DEP are occurring to evaluate next steps with HWP remediation site. • Financial: Bank liquidity and short-term debt costs are high relative to pre-recession levels, but have been improving. The IRS issued final guidance providing flexibility to switch approaches for calculating the present value of pension benefit obligation. Based on the results of the asset/liability study a new asset allocation policy was recommended to the Pension Committee with the goal of reducing the Plan’s exposure to equity market volatility and implementation began in Q4 2009. • Customer Experience: Customer Experience has launched a receivables collection process improvement initiative and has implemented various plans to address call volume and longer hold times. The creation of the Customer Retention Index provides insight to the customer impact of our business processes. • Business Continuity: Lessons learned from the pandemic outbreak in spring 2009 were used to improve plans and to make decisions regarding stockpiles of supplies, etc. New - Business Continuity Plans were enacted during a recent event regarding unidentified material in package delivered to Berlin offices.

  13. Key Themes for March 2010 Update of Strategic Risks • Information Technology: The IT Security Program continues to improve policies, processes and technology that address the evolving threats to NU’s enterprise. Employees’ personal devices pose some additional security risks. In addition, maintaining costs is challenging in an environment with continued need for outside services. Purchasing worked in collaboration with IT to develop a vendor web security questionnaire to ensure that the vendor that is hosting or managing company data meets the system security requirements. Purchasing also worked with Legal and IT Security to ensure compliance with new CT and MA laws regarding employee and customer personal information. • Purchasing:To mitigate the impact of large project cancellations/delays, Purchasing continues to support the procurement of NEEWs materials and has begun bidding and awarding construction contracts. Major materials and equipment associated with NEEWs were awarded as blanket orders. New contracts achieved price reductions for certain assets and were awarded to multiple suppliers, mitigating the risk of insufficient supply to manufacturer default. Contractor of choice contracts (COC) were rebid in Q4 2009 and awarded in Q1 and Q2 2010. New rules, policies and work procedure were introduced and accepted by our COC contractors. • Human Resources:Specific training programs to improve trust, strategic thinking, develop leadership expectations, and improve customer service leadership and communication have been implemented. HR will continue to work with Purchasing and investigate stop loss coverage in the event that a future pandemic could present significant financial impact due to high numbers of medical claims. Action has been taken to draft, revise or write policies to protect confidential information, including personal information. • Accounting:IFRS training was conducted and a plan for IFRS Implementation is being developed. As part of the implementation of the CPM tool, a change management plan is being followed to address the changes in business processes due to this new technology and provide detailed training and timely communications. No significant SOX deficiencies or weaknesses in internal controls were identified in 2009. • Legal:Momentums on several risks move to slightly favorable based on reviews and revisions to policies and procedures, enhanced controls and additional training. PCB disposal risk underwent root cause analysis and resulted in increased focus on leaking equipment. Cyber risk insurance has been purchased.

  14. Transmission Segment

  15. Transmission Segment Continues Its Strong Performance • 2009 financial performance ahead of projections • Continued strong operations and regulatory audits • Initial NEEWS approvals received in March 2010 • FERC issued declaratory order in May 2009 supportive of HQ project structure; reaffirmed order in December 2009 • Capital program reduced due to reductions in PSNH spending • Regional initiative developing to unlock renewable potential of Northern New England

  16. Increased Transmission Investment Has Diversified and Significantly Increased Regulated Earnings 2005 2009 25.2% 50.8% $41.1 $164.3 $159.2 $122.3 74.8% 49.2% Net Income: $163.4 Regulated EPS: $1.24 Net Income: $323.5 Regulated EPS: $1.87 Regulated Net Income (In millions) Distribution/Generation Transmission

  17. Five-Year Transmission Capital Expenditures Program Reduced By More Than $500 Million 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast $3.4 Billion $2.9 Billion In Millions In Millions

  18. Components of Other Projects CL&P WMECO PSNH Total 2010-2014 $897 Million Projects not yet in Regional System Plan (RSP) 298 • Breakdown of Other Projects: • 45% ($401M) - in RSP • 24% ($216M) - not required to be in RSP • 31% ($280M) - not yet in RSP 259 211 In Millions 156 150 34 Note: Upon commencement of the ISO-NE approval process, the HVDC project will be included in the RSP

  19. Capital Projects Reflected in Projected2010-2014 Transmission Year-End Rate Base Transmission Rate Base CAGR of 12.6% $4,729 $4,035 $3,499 In Millions $2,986 $2,697 $2,597 * ** * * Reflects FERC approval of 100% CWIP for NEEWS projects **NU share of this project is depicted as traditional rate base without CWIP during construction

  20. Hydro-Quebec- HVDC HVDC Line between Quebec and New Hampshire 3 Connecticut Borders (MA, RI): NEEWS Projects Under Way 2 Southwest Connecticut Reliability: Projects Complete 1 Transmission as a Key Strategic Enabler to Solving New England’s Energy Challenges Renewable Collector Lines ´ Renewables & Clean Energy (ME/NH/VT): Projects in Development/ High Wind potential areas 4 ´

  21. NEEWS Advances Into the Siting Phase • GSRP Status • ISO confirmed need date in October 2009 • CT approved project in March 2010 • MA hearings complete and briefs filed, decision and order expected in late summer 2010 • Construction start in late 2010 • In-service 2013 • IRP and CCRP Status • Updated needs assessment expected by 3Q 2010 Greater Springfield Reliability Project SPRINGFIELD Interstate Reliability Project HARTFORD Central Connecticut Reliability Project 345-kV Substation Generation Station 345-kV ROW 115-kV ROW

  22. NEEWS Projects - $1.49 Billion Capital Investment (2009-2014) NEEWS Projects Milestones * Depends upon the timing of a favorable outcome to ISO’s reassessment of need and need dates, which is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2010. **Depends upon timing of favorable outcome of siting in three states (CT, MA and RI)

  23. ´ New HVDC Line To Connect Hydro-Quebec Generation To New England Market • Joint venture between NU (75%) and NSTAR (25%) • 1,200 MW transfer capability • Northern terminus at Des Cantons (Québec), southern terminus in central or southern New Hampshire • Québec terminal will convert the power from AC to DC (rectifier) • US terminal will convert the power from DC to AC (inverter) • Capital cost estimate for US segment: $900 million ($675 million for NU share) • Work proceeding on Transmission Service Agreement and Purchased Power Agreement Des Cantons HVDC Line HVDC Converter Station

  24. Understanding Terms Related to the HVDC Project • Joint Development Agreement (JDA) • Defines the terms on which we will jointly manage the development of the HVDC line with HQ-TransEnergie • Design, engineering, siting, permitting, obtaining or preparing written cost estimates • Creates a project board with general oversight responsibility for the project • Describes the roles and responsibilities of the project board and each company’s project managers • Defines project communication protocols • Will be in place through siting approval (a separate joint construction agreement will likely be needed) • Commercial agreement not subject to regulatory review • Transmission Service Agreement (TSA) • Sets forth the terms and conditions under which HQ will acquire and pay for the transmission use rights over the New Hampshire segment of the HVDC line • Describes what transmission rights HQ gets (firm rights to flow power, interruption or curtailment details) • Defines process for HQ to offer the transmission rights to others at times when they might not be using the line • Defines payment terms for the line • Defines the components of the cost for the line (revenue requirements: depreciation, ROE, debt service, O&M, property taxes) • Describes needed arrangements with ISO-NE such as scheduling flows over the line, etc. • Subject to FERC review and approval • Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) • Defines the product HQ will sell • Defines the pricing structure for the energy • Defines the pricing structure for capacity • Defines pricing for externalities • Sets forth payment terms • Negotiations under way with expected completion in spring 2010, with state regulatory filings sequenced to coincide with ISO-NE, technical and state specific timetables

  25. Regulated Distribution & Generation

  26. Distribution and Generation Segment Opportunities and Challenges • Net income rose at electric distribution companies, but returns still disappointing • All companies have strong pass-through mechanisms, but electric distribution operations require rate relief to improve returns • Good success managing controllable O&M, but pension and uncollectible expenses have weighed down returns • Sales growth outlook strong for Yankee Gas, weak for electric companies • Generation business model meeting public policy mandates and producing reasonable returns

  27. 2009 Distribution and Generation Results 5.7% 14.7% Earnings For Common In Millions 22.5% 35.8% CL&P Yankee Gas PSNH WMECO

  28. Sales Data and Projections Yankee Gas CL&P WMECO PSNH

  29. Write-Offs Rising, Reflect Each Service Territory’s Economic Conditions and Household Income Write-offs as a % of Revenues

  30. Electric Distribution and Generation Capital Expenditures – By Company 2010-2014 Projected Distribution & Generation Capital Spending $2.8 Billion $665 $616 $565 $557 $526 $518 In millions

  31. Projected 2010 – 2014 Distribution and Generation Year-End Rate Base Projected Distribution & Generation Rate Base CAGR of 8.1% $6,503 $6,224 $5,947 $5,166 $4,791 $4,401 In Millions

  32. 2010 Rate Cases

  33. PSNH, CL&P Rate Case Status PSNH Rate Case Status • $50.9 million permanent retroactive to 8/1/09 ($25.6 million actually took effect 8/1/09) • $16.8 million effective 7/1/10 • Settlement discussions well advanced CL&P Rate Case Status • $133 million effective 7/1/10 • $44 million effective 7/1/11 • 2010 revenues deferred and recovered from 1/1/11 to 6/30/12 • Full amortization of RRBs ($234 million) and lower purchased power costs should result in significant rate decrease on 1/1/11 • Final decision due June 7

  34. Current CL&P Rates Trending Down 2003-2009 Average Total Bill For All Customers Receiving Generation Supply From CL&P 18.689 17.788 17.52 17.055 16.054 Cents/KWH as of January 1 12.529 10.783 9.336 CL&P 2003 Rate Case CL&P 2007 Rate Case CL&P 2010 Rate Case

  35. Generation Strategy • Installation of 6 MW solar projected by 2012 • First site (Pittsfield) announced in February • Estimated cost: $41 million • Constructive regulatory model – fully tracking, segmented rate base • Potential for up to 50 MW WMECO Solar Initiative The Clean Air Project • Scrubber must be installed by 7/1/13 • Will remove 90+% of sulfur, 80% of mercury emissions • Estimated cost: $457 million • Nearly $147 million capitalized at 12/31/09 • Broad stakeholder support • On or ahead of schedule: 48% complete as of 3/31/10 • Resolved major uncertainties

  36. Yankee Gas Capital Expenditures 2010-2014 Projected Yankee Gas Capital Spending $461 Million $112 $106 Yankee Gas Strategy $82 $80 $77 • New shale-led supply paradigm • Marcellus changes NE US gas markets • Natural gas pricing “divorce” from oil • Lower carbon footprint • Low penetration rate in Yankee Gas franchise • Potential significant savings for CT customers $60 In millions

  37. Five-Year Forecast

  38. Significant Changes in Modeling Assumptions From 2009 • Lower five-year capital investment forecast ($6.4 billion vs. $7.0 billion) • NEEWS and HQ projects completed in 2014 vs. 2013 • Smaller annual dividend increases (7.5 cents/yr. vs. 10 cents/yr.) • NU share of HQ line to cost $675 million (vs. $525 million); still reflected as PSNH project, though likely to be in separate subsidiary • Less sales growth • Lower level of pension funding ($591 million vs. $884 million) • Less equity issuance ($290 million vs. $871 million) • Less net long-term debt issuance ($2.07 billion vs. $2.5 billion)

  39. 2009-2014: New Capital Expenditure Forecast $1,662 $1,670 $1,439 $1,440 $1,374 $1,211 $1,174 $1,096 $1,112 $969 In Millions $851 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Distribution and Generation Capex (2009 Forecast) Distribution and GenerationCapex (2010 Forecast*) Transmission Capex (2009 Forecast) Transmission Capex (2010 Forecast) *Includes total capex at corporate service companies on behalf of operating companies of $134 million ($48 million in 2010, $25 million in 2011, $22 million in 2012, $25 million in 2013, and $14 million in 2014). Five-year 2010-2014 capital spending of approximately $6.4 billion, compared with last year’s 2009-2013 $7 billion plan; 2009-2013 period down by $0.6 billion.

  40. Cash Flow To Cover More of Cap Ex After 2009 Actual Actual/Projected Cash From Operations (Excluding RRB Retirements) In Millions

  41. Projected Consolidated Balance Sheet Year-End Balance Sheet

  42. Projected Consolidated FFO to Total Debt Includes pension funding payment

  43. Projected Consolidated FFO to Total Debt Excludes pension funding payment

  44. Projected Consolidated FFO Interest Coverage Includes pension funding payment

  45. Projected Consolidated FFO Interest Coverage Excludes pension funding payment

  46. Appendix

  47. Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Slightly Unfavorable Slightly Favorable Strategic Risk Momentum Summary – March 2010 Rate case outcomes are critical, with CL&P and PSNH cases underway and WMECO planned for later in 2010. Cost management and resolution of uncollectibles balances remain a focus. Work to advance NEEWS projects continues. Dashed arrow is March 2010 update Solid arrow is December 2009 update

  48. Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Slightly Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Slightly Unfavorable Slightly Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Slightly Favorable Strategic Risk Momentum Summary – March 2010

  49. Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Favorable Neutral Favorable Unfavorable Slightly Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Strategic Risk Momentum Summary – March 2010 Favorable Unfavorable Slightly Favorable

  50. Beyond NEEWS, HQ Project, Significant TransmissionInvestment Will Be Needed to Bring Renewables to Market Current New England Renewable Portfolio Requirements Vermont Goal: 20% by 2017 Minimum: 2005-2012. Load growth to be met with renewables and capped at 10%. Maine 33% in 2010 40% by 2017 New Hampshire 7.54% in 2010 23.8% by 2025 Massachusetts Class IClass II APS 5% in 2010; 1% annual 3.6% kwH sales 1.5% in 2010 increments thereafter starting in 2009 & 5% by 2020 3.5% kwH sales from waste energy starting in 2009 Connecticut 14% in 2010 27% by 2020 RI 4.5% in 2010 16% by 2019

More Related