Public Opinion and Political Action

1. Public Opinion and Political Action Chapter 6

2. Introduction • Public Opinion • The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues. • Demography • The science of population changes. • Census • A valuable tool for understanding population changes- required every 10 years.

3. The American People • The Immigrant Society • Wave 1: Before the late 19th century- northwestern Europeans. • Wave 2: During the late 19th century- southern and eastern Europeans. • Wave 3: Recent decades- Hispanics from Central America & Mexico. Asians from Vietnam, Korea, etc.

4. The American People Figure 6.1

5. The American People • The American Melting Pot • Melting Pot: The mixing of cultures, ideas and peoples that has changed the American nation. • Minority Majority • Illegal immigration • Simpson-Mazzoli Act • Political Culture: An overall set of values widely shared within a society.

6. The American People • The Regional Shift • Reapportionment: The process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census. Figure 6.2

7. The American People • The Graying of America • Fastest growing group is over 65 • Potential drain on Social Security by 2020 • “Gray Power” • One advantage that no other group has- we are all going to get older

8. How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization • Political Socialization: • “…the process through which an individual acquires [their] particular political orientation” • The Process of Political Socialization • The Family • Time & emotional commitment • Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings

10. How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization • The Process of Political Socialization • The Mass Media • Generation gap in TV news viewing • School / Education • Used by government to socialize the young into the culture, to have better jobs, and a more positive view of government • “Schools need not preach of political doctrine to defend democracy. If they shape and women capable of critical thought and trained in social attitudes, that is all that is necessary.” –Albert Einstein • Political Learning Over a Lifetime

12. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • How Polls Are Conducted • Random Sampling: The key technique employed by sophisticated survey researchers, which operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected for the sample. • Sampling Error: The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll.

13. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • The Role of Polls in American Democracy • Polls help politicians figure out public preferences. • Does it make politicians think more about following the polls? • Politicians = followers • Bandwagon effect • Exit Polls- used by the media to predict election day winners. • Polls can be manipulated.

14. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information • Americans don’t know much about politics. • Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how that affects policies of the government. • The Decline of Trust in Government • Now only about 25% of the public trust the government most of the time or always.

16. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies • Political Ideology: • A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, and public purpose. • Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? • Views change over time • Currently about 42% conservative, 25% liberal, 34% moderate

17. Liberals: Less military spending Opposed to prayer in schools Favor affirmative action Tax the rich more Solve the problems that cause crime Conservatives: More military spending Support prayer in schools Oppose affirmative action Keep taxes low Should stop “coddling criminals” What Americans Value: Political Ideologies From Table 6.3

18. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies • Do People Think in Ideological Terms? • Ideologues: think in ideological terms- 12% of the population • Group Benefits: rely on party labels- 42% of the population • Nature of the Times: current times are good or bad- 24% of the population • No issue content: based on personalities- 22% of the population

19. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies • Has There Been a Turn Toward Conservatism? • Ronald Reagan was most conservative president since the New Deal. • People liked Reagan, but not his policies. • Nature of the Times voters swing the elections. • Clinton couldn’t pass the universal health care policy.

20. STOP ! ! ! • End Public Opinion & Ideology Lecture

21. How Americans Participate in Politics • Political Participation: • All the activities used by citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue. • Conventional Participation • Voting in elections • Working in campaigns / running for office • Contacting elected officials

22. How Americans Participate in Politics • Protest as Participation • Protest: A form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics. • Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.

23. How Americans Participate in Politics • Class, Inequality, and Participation Figure 6.5

24. Understanding Public Opinion and Political Action • Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government • Many people haven’t thought about it. • Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action • We select our leaders, not policies. • We protest for specific policies, not against the government.

25. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Deciding Whether to Vote • U.S. typically has low voter turnouts. • Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote. • Political Efficacy: The belief that one’s political participation really matters. • Civic Duty: The belief that in order to support democratic government, a citizen should always vote.

26. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Registering To Vote • Voter Registration: A system adopted by the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day. • North Dakota has no registration system. • Motor Voter Act: Requires states to permit people to register to vote when the apply for their driver’s license.

27. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? • Education: More education = more likely to vote. Most important factor. • Age: Older = more likely to go vote. • Race: Caucasian = more likely to go vote. BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education. • Gender: Female = more likely to go vote.

29. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? (continued) • Marital Status: Married = more likely to go vote. • Mobility: Don’t move = more likely to go vote. • Union Membership: Union member = more likely to go vote. • Traits are cumulative- possessing several adds up.

32. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • The Political Consequences of Turnout Bias • Do fewer voters help Republicans or Democrats? • Increasing categories of voters can make a difference. • Would higher turnouts help the party in power?

33. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions • Party Identification • People generally vote for a party they agree with. • Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed this view. • Now many voters are individualistic. • Characteristics of each candidate are more important than party.

34. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions • Candidate Orientation: How Americans See the Candidates • Candidates want a good visual image. • Most important dimensions are integrity, reliability and competence. • Personality still plays a role.

35. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions • Issue Orientation • Basing your vote choice on issue preferences. • Must know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates. • But, candidates cloud their position on issues. • And voters may like different candidates on different issues- who to vote for?

36. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Democracy and Elections • Voters can steer government only when there are noticeable policy differences between the candidates. • Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections. • Bad economies make politicians nervous. • Retrospective voting

37. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Elections and the Scope of Government • Elections generally support government policies and power. • Voters feel they are sending a message to government to accomplish something. • Thus, the government expands to fill the needs of the voters.

38. Internet Resources • Census Bureau • Gallup Organization • Statistical Abstract of the United States • American Demographics magazine