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Assessing the Potential of Geographic Markets fka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts

Assessing the Potential of Geographic Markets fka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts. By Gillian Butler Student Affairs Research & Information University of California, Davis CAIR 2001 Sacramento, CA. SARI Report 222.A.

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Assessing the Potential of Geographic Markets fka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts

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  1. Assessing the Potential of Geographic Marketsfka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts By Gillian Butler Student Affairs Research & Information University of California, Davis CAIR 2001 Sacramento, CA SARI Report 222.A

  2. Number of HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA CountiesSource: CA Dept of Education

  3. Number of Hispanic HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA CountiesSource: CA Dept of Education

  4. Number of African American HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA CountiesSource: CA Dept of Education

  5. Percentage of Enrolling Students Who Chose UCD Because They "Wanted To Live Near Home"Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1976 - 1997

  6. Percentage For Whom Being Close to Home is “Very Important", by EthnicitySource: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1997

  7. Academic Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

  8. Social Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

  9. http://www.sariweb.ucdavis.edu/factbook/countymap.htm

  10. Number of Applications, Admits, and Enrolled Students by Marketing Region, 1998 -'99 through 2000-'01(Fall Freshmen from HS)

  11. Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled Hispanic Students by Marketing Region 1998 - '99 through 2000 - '01(Fall Freshmen from HS)

  12. Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled African American Students by Marketing Region 1998 - '99 through 2000 - '01(Fall Freshmen from HS)

  13. Potential Eligibles: Completed the course sequence required for admission to a UC or CSU school

  14. Percentage of Total June 2000 Potentially Eligible by Marketing RegionSource: CA Dept of Education

  15. Percentage of Total June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by EthnicitySource: CA Dept of Education

  16. Percentage of Hispanic June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing RegionSource: CA Dept of Education

  17. Percentage of African-American June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing RegionSource: CA Dept of Education

  18. Cesa & Carnegie “Using Logistic Regression to Predict Which Admits Will Register” “Detailed tables of odds that focus on specific groups . . . are helpful in planning recruitment strategies for those specific groups.”

  19. Logistic Regression Models • Bivariate Logistic Regression • Two separate models: one to predict admission, & one to predict enrollment • Multiplied probability of admission by probability of enrolling to get probability of applicant enrolling. • Deviation coding: Results are comparative, not absolute

  20. Maximum Possible Enrollments • Multiplied probability of enrolling by relative number of “Potential Eligibles” to derive Maximum Possible Enrollments

  21. UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local .25 .19 .09 .08 .13 .12 Number of Potential Eligibles in this region 14430 24465 10232 27924 9227 9891 Maximum possible enrollments 3608 4625 875 2153 1190 1221 MODEL: All Applicants Probability of Enrolling by Number of Potential Eligibles

  22. UCD Local UCD Bay UUCI UCLA UCR UCSD Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local .25 .19 .09 .09 .13 .11 Number of Potential Eligibles in this region 1493 3067 1193 9318 2375 1828 Maximum possible enrollments 373 580 102 827 306 199 MODEL: Hispanic Applicants Probability of Enrolling by Potential Eligibles

  23. UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local .25 .17 .07 .07 .14 .15 Number of Potential Eligibles in this region 558 1195 126 2391 665 403 Maximum possible enrollments 137 207 8 175 90 61 MODEL: African-American Applicants Probability of Enrolling by Potential Eligibles

  24. Conclusions • The Bay Area is the strongest market for total applicants • Local and Bay Area regions combined have same potential as LA County for Hispanic enrollments • Of all southern CA markets, only LA County has strong potential for Hispanic enrollments • Bay Area has the strongest potential for African-American enrollments

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