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MEsA. Future Trends Panel Discussion. Jairus Hihn. 22nd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling (2007). Software Systems Trends. We will see more and more systems that organically evolve integrating over networks with Systems of Systems characteristics

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Future Trends Panel Discussion

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Future trends panel discussion

MEsA

Future Trends Panel Discussion

Jairus Hihn

22nd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling (2007)


Software systems trends

Software Systems Trends

  • We will see more and more systems that organically evolve integrating over networks with Systems of Systems characteristics

    • Plug and play systems that were never originally designed to work together

  • Ever greater use of

    • Line between systems and software will blur

    • ‘programming approaches’ that do not need programmers

      • graphics based

      • Auto code generation

    • Data mining and machine learning

    • Automation

    • Planning algorithms

    • More sophisticated fault protection

    • Agile like development processes

  • All of these severely challenge traditional costing approaches


Costing trends

Costing Trends

  • Do we want to make ourselves better or improve the quality of costing across the industry

    • Dominant technique is bottom up estimates from engineers

    • Engineers use analogy and WAG

  • Deal better with COTS and SOS

  • More dynamic models

    • Calibration as part of estimation

  • More integrated tools

    • Cost, defects, risk

    • Parametric and analogy

    • Design and estimation

  • Analogy based estimation

    • Nearest Neighbour

    • Also needs language support because people sue words differently

    • Integration of expert judgment and data

  • Whatever we do we need to keep things as simple as possible


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