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Missing Person Behaviour. For Lowland Search Dog Teams Berkshire Search and Rescue Dogs January 2010. Who am I?. Robert Bradley Fellow - Institute Civil Protection and Emergency Management Member - Institute for Learning Volunteer Instructor with UKLSI Search Website – www.re-search.org.uk

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Missing person behaviour l.jpg

Missing Person Behaviour

For Lowland Search Dog TeamsBerkshire Search and Rescue DogsJanuary 2010


Who am i l.jpg

Who am I?

Robert Bradley

  • Fellow - Institute Civil Protection and Emergency Management

  • Member - Institute for Learning

  • Volunteer Instructor with UKLSI

  • Search Website – www.re-search.org.uk

  • Soon to open – The SAR Bookshop


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Tonight’s Talk

  • What are “missing person stats”?

  • How do they help?

  • ALSAR Callouts

  • Search is an Emergency

  • Distance from IPP

  • Find Location

  • Visualising Misper Stats


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Missing Person Statistics

History

  • 1783 – Father Lorenzo, Switzerland

  • 1975 – Syrotuck, Washington & New York

  • 1991 – Ken Hill, Nova Scotia

  • 1992 – Robert Koester, Virginia

  • 2002 – Perkins, Roberts & Feeney, MR

  • 2007 – Gibb & Woolnough, Grampian

  • 2008 – ISRID


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Grampian Stats

Reproduced in ACPO Search Guidance

Based upon approx. 3000 cases,

mostly Police incident reports.

Not yet fully published,

so no numbers for each category are known.


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ISRID

Published in Bob Koester’s (excellent) book

Lost Person Behavior, dbs-sar publications

Based upon 50,000 incidents worldwide,

Australia - 556

New Zealand - 2460

UK- 689

Others include Switzerland, South Africa and Canada as well as the US.


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Grampian vs ISRID

I have been very careful to be self-serving when setting up the ISRID database.  I am a search and rescue incident commander who responds to searches after local initial law enforcement efforts have failed.  I wanted data that would help me the most from a planning perspective.  Since Lost Person Behavior statistics are based upon the simple but important premise that past cases are the best predictions of future cases you want to make sure your past cases are as similar to your future case (the person you are looking for right now who most likely is not in your database).  I often say ISRID is a tertiary database.  A primary database would collect data from parents and caregivers and hunting buddies who have looked for a lost person.  A secondary database would be initial law enforcement efforts and finally we have a tertiary database that looks at only cases when the first two fail. I maintain the data you get from each type of data source would be different.  A parent looking for the missing two-year old last seen in the house should look in the house and yard.  Using a SAR database which might have them 400 meters away might not be the best approach.  Likewise, a SAR team that only looks in the house, next door, then calls it quits and goes home might not be so great.

I have talked to Penny regarding the Grampian data.  I learned that it was based upon 3000 cases, but further details she did not want to release until she had published a paper in an academic journal. I can understand and related to that.  My reading between the lines suggested it collected mostly urban data from law enforcement sources.  I surmised a mix of secondary and tertiary sources.  I would say it is best to try to match an actual search with statistics that best match as similar circumstances as possible.  No database is more or less correct.  However, each database will be best matched to different cases.

Personal Correspondence With Bob Koester


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What do they tell us?

Distance from IPP

Elevation Change

Mobility

Dispersion

Find Location

Scenario

Survivability

Track Offset

Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop


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What don’t they tell us?

And other lost person behaviour myths…

Turning in the direction of the dominant hand

Searching around the median

Lost persons travel downhill

Over 65s are one category

Where to find the misper!


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So what use are they?

Search Manager

To put YOU in the right place to searchin the right order…

Search Dog Team

To search the right placesin the right way…


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Lowland Search Misper Types

Taken from study of ALSAR Stats – 2006 to 2009


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Search is an Emergency

Why?

Despondents;

Survivability: >24 hours only 43% alive

Dementia

Survivability: >24 hours 77% aliveMobility: 50% immobile within 15 minutes

Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop


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and…?

Surely we’ve always known this?

Highlights the importance of

Searching in the right placein the right orderand in the right way!


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What is the right way?

“Clearing” one area and having

the misper die

in the next area is

NOT the right way


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A Mission

To rid lowland search of the term

“Cleared”

With the exception of one or two high priority areas vulnerable missing person search is not about clearing areas!


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So what should we do?

The job of EVERYONE duringa vulnerable missing person searchis to maximise theProbability of Successof the search.

(To find the missing person, wherever they might be, as quickly as possible!)


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Are you sure?

A

B

Tactic One

POS 24%

Tactic Two

POS 42%

Tactic Three

POS 59%

C

D

A

B

C

D

Taken from Success Fast, Steve Upton

A

B

C

D


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Some Missing Person Stats

Two main categories of lowland search misper

Despondents

Dementia


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Distances from IPP

Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop


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Find Location

Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop


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Track Offset

Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop


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Visualising Misper Stats

3 year old girl, Daisy

3ft, Blonde Hair

Last seen wearing

Blue “Cinderella” Dress

Ran out of house whilst dad was preparing talk two hours ago.


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And so on maps…

25%

25%

25%


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Areas

6.28km2

0.75km2

0.031km2


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Probability Density

4

33

806


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Visually


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Now go away and play

Whilst I could present all these…

It is easier to “learn” them by DIY!


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To help

Area of circle = π r2

Area of doughnut = Large circle – smaller circle

Probability Density = POA / Area


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