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Presented by: Stan Slachetka, AICP, PP Robert Dare, MCRP

Bethlehem Township. Califon Borough. Clinton Town. Clinton Township. Franklin Township. Glen Gardner Borough. Hampton Borough. High Bridge Borough. Lebanon Borough. Lebanon Township. Tewksbury Township. Union Township. North Hunterdon - Voorhees Regional High School District.

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Presented by: Stan Slachetka, AICP, PP Robert Dare, MCRP

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  1. Bethlehem Township Califon Borough Clinton Town Clinton Township Franklin Township Glen Gardner Borough Hampton Borough High Bridge Borough Lebanon Borough Lebanon Township Tewksbury Township Union Township North Hunterdon - Voorhees Regional High School District Presented by: Stan Slachetka, AICP, PP Robert Dare, MCRP

  2. Methodology • Cohort survival method • Utilizes historic enrollment data and birth records to estimate future enrollments • Growth scenario method • Takes into consideration a community’s growth rate to estimate the amount of additional school age children to be generated from new residential development. Uses building permit data, approved and pending development applications, and demographic multipliers to predict enrollments

  3. Glossary (1/2) • Cohort • The number of students in a specific class as it progresses up through each grade level • Cohort survival ratio • The ratio between the class size at one grade level to the class size at the next highest grade level • In-migration • The number of new students added to a cohort between each grade

  4. Glossary (2/2) • Demographic multiplier • The estimated number of school children to be generated from a single residential unit. Based on the studies of the actual number of school children generated by residential development

  5. K-8 Districts: Last Six Years

  6. K-8 Districts: Last Six Years

  7. Regional High School District: Last Six Years

  8. Regional High School District: Last Six Years

  9. Summary of Historic Trends • Decline in enrollment at K-8 level • Increase in enrollment at regional high school district (9-12) level • Total of 628 students since 2000-2001 • Approximately 126 students per year

  10. Reasons for Trends • Fluctuating rate of residential development activity • Highlands Water Protection and Planning Act • Economic impacts of September 11, 2001 and related events • Advancement of K-8 students to grades 9-12 • Effect of prior growth and development

  11. Net Residential Certificates of Occupancy: 1996-2005 Average (1996-2000): 336 Average (2001-2005): 182 Average (1996-2005): 259

  12. Net Residential Certificates of Occupancy: 1996-2005

  13. K-8 District Projections (Aggregate)

  14. K-8 District Projections (Aggregate)

  15. K-8 District Projections (Aggregate)

  16. 5-Year K-8 District Projections (District Level)

  17. 10-Year K-8 District Projections (District Level)

  18. Regional High School District Projections

  19. Regional High School District Projections

  20. North Hunterdon High School Projections

  21. North Hunterdon High School Projections

  22. Voorhees High School Projections

  23. Voorhees High School Projections

  24. Key Findings • High school enrollment remains relatively stable before sharply increasing to 3,217 students by the 2015-2016 academic year • Total change of 154 students from 2005-2006 to 2015-2016 • Average of 15 students per year • Highest growth from the 2013-2014 to the 2015-2016 academic years

  25. Caveats and Cautions (1/2) • Reliability of 10-year projections • Growth may peak earlier • Changes in NHHS and VHS student distribution • Economic changes • Highlands Water Protection and Planning Act • Affordable housing issues • New COAH numbers and regulations after 2013 • Affordable housing law suits

  26. Caveats and Cautions (2/2) • External factors • National issues • New laws and regulations (e.g., stormwater management regulations) • Need for continued monitoring of enrollment levels

  27. Summary (1/2) • The projections are based on the state-recognized cohort survival projection methodology • The cohort survival projection model projects enrollments based on historic student enrollment trends • In sending districts with a projected level of residential development that is greater than the historical average of residential development, a growth scenario model has been used to account for students resulting from new residential development • Age-restricted development (as provided, for instance, on Clinton Township’s Windy Acres site) has not been included in the high growth scenario cohort survival projections

  28. Summary (2/2) • High school enrollment will increase 3,019 students during the 2010-2011 academic year • High school enrollment will remain relatively stable before sharply increasing to 3,217 students by the 2015-2016 academic year • There will be a total change of 154 students from 2005-2006 to 2015-2016, or 5 percent growth • It is critical that the Board continue to monitor future enrollment levels

  29. Thank You

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