Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas
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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 February 2011. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status

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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

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Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

Update prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

28 February 2011

For Real-time information:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/


Outline

Outline

  • Highlights

  • ENSO Current Status

  • MJO Current Status

  • Monsoons Current Status

  • Southern Hemisphere Circulation

  • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns

  • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

  • Forecast Verification


Highlights

Highlights

Australia: A ridge of high pressure maintained dry, hot conditions across central and eastern Australia. Rainfall decreased across monsoon areas of northern Australia as well. A major tropical cyclone may impact northeastern Queensland during the upcoming week.

Southern Africa:Scattered showers and thunderstorms fell across corn croplands of southern Africa. An area of below-average rainfall was observed across far northern South Africa.

South America: A second week of below-average rainfall was observed in southeastern Brazil, with drier weather overspreading the central plateau region as well. Showers and thunderstorms were observed across northern and central Argentina, but the far northern states (Chaco and Formosa) received below average accumulation.


Enso current status

ENSO Current Status

  • General Summary:

  • A mature La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific.

  • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies have begun to weaken in parts of the Pacific Ocean.

  • ENSO-Neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May-June 2011.

During the last 4-weeks (31 Dec – 26 Feb 2011), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and 110°W, while regions of above-average temperatures have emerged in the far eastern Pacific.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Mjo current status

MJO Index -- Recent Evolution

Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

  • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes

  • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO

  • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.

  • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength

  • Line colors distinguish different months

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts

dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members

Green Line – Ensemble Mean

MJO Current Status

The MJO signal remained disorganized during the previous week.

The GEFS forecast indicates a continued weak MJO signal during week 1, with some ensemble members increasing amplitude in week-2.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml


Southern hemisphere monsoons current status

Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status

South America

Southern Africa

Australia

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Monsoon Season: NOV-APR

Monsoon Season: NOV-APR

Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/


Southern hemisphere circulation

200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days

Southern Hemisphere Circulation

A

A

Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.

Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.


Southern hemisphere circulation1

Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days

Southern Hemisphere Circulation

Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.

Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.

CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.


Australia

Australia

  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

  • Temperature Patterns

  • GFS Forecast


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the last 7 days, widespread copious rainfall fell across monsoon regions of the tropical north.


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly


Temperature c based on gts stations no qc

Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly


Southern africa

Southern Africa

  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

  • Temperature Patterns

  • GFS Forecast


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

  • Below-average rainfall was observed across Kwazulu-Natal’s coastal sugarcane croplands.


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly


Temperature c based on gts stations no qc1

Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly


Brazil argentina

Brazil & Argentina

  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

  • Temperature Patterns

  • GFS Forecast


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

  • Heavy monsoon thunderstorms overspread northern Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and western Bahia.

  • Numerous showers and thunderstorms fell across northern and central Argentina.

Brazil

Argentina


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly

Brazil

Argentina


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly

Brazil

Argentina


Recent evolution rainfall last 30 days

Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days


Temperature c brazil based on gts stations no qc

Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly


Temperature c argentina based on gts stations no qc

Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly


Southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas

Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles

Crop Calendars by Month

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars

USDA Crop Information


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