Ideas on WoF NWP design
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Ideas on WoF NWP design - Relationship to HRRR(E) Possible contributions from AMB/GSD. Rapid Refresh domain. Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt. Assimilation and Modeling Branch Global Systems Division. RUC-13 domain. future 1-km nests. WoF Kickoff Meeting 18 Feb 2010. HRRR 3-km.

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Ideas on WoF NWP design - Relationship to HRRR(E) Possible contributions from AMB/GSD

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Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

  • Ideas on WoF NWP design

  • - Relationship to HRRR(E)

  • Possible contributions from AMB/GSD

Rapid Refresh domain

Stan Benjamin

Steve Weygandt

Assimilation and Modeling Branch

Global Systems Division

RUC-13 domain

future 1-km nests

WoF Kickoff Meeting

18 Feb 2010

HRRR 3-km

rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics


Hrrr web page http ruc noaa gov hrrr

HRRR web page – http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

RUC / RR hourly updating

Use latest observations to obtain the freshest analysis and forecasts for aviation, severe weather, energy, and general forecast applications

Data types used

Rawinsonde (balloons)

Wind Profilers (405 MHz, 915 MHz) RASS virtual temperatures

VAD winds (WSR-88D radars)

Aircraft (ACARS, TAMDAR)

Surface (METAR, Buoy, Mesonet

Precipitable water (GPS, GOES, SSM/I)

GOES cloud-drift winds

GOES cloud-top pressure/temp

Radar reflectivity, lightning

Ship reports/dropsondes

Satellite radiances (Rapid Refresh)

1-hr

fcst

1-hr

fcst

1-hr

fcst

Back-

ground

Fields

Analysis

Fields

3DVAR

3DVAR

Obs

Obs

Time

(UTC)

11 12 13


Ruc rr and hrrr models

RUC  RR

Radar Assim

Hourly updating model

RUC / RR and HRRR models

Data Assimilation cycle

HRRR

Observations


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

00z+6h HRRR

No radar

00z+6h HRRR

RUC radar

NSSL verification

RUC radar

assimilation

on 13-km grid

improves

HRRR 3-km

forecast

06z 16 Aug 2007


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

3km HRRR verification-From NCAR report- 16 Dec 2009 “Model Performance and Sensitivity”(Mei Xu, David Dowell, Jenny Sun)

RUC grids provided much improved initial condition for HRRR than NAM or GFS grids, especially in 1-6h

RUC-based HRRR skill

(even without radar assimilation)

due to effective analysis of convective environment using other observations (ACARS, profiler, surface, cloud obs)and digital filter initialization (focuses vertical motion for convection)


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

3km HRRR verification- From NCAR report- 16 Dec 2009 “Model Performance and Sensitivity”(Mei Xu, David Dowell, Jenny Sun)

RUC grids provided much improved initial condition for HRRR than NAM or GFS grids, especially in 1-6h

Addition of radar assimilation to RUC convective environment adds further improvement for first ~6h

(representative example from individual case from late July 2009)


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Planned NCEP Operation

Meso- and Storm-scale models

  • NAM

  • NEMS based NMM

  • Bgrid replaces Egrid

  • Parent remains at 12 km

  • Multiple Nests Run to 48hr

    • ~4 km CONUS nest

    • ~6 km Alaska nest

    • ~3 km HI & PR nests,and/or a~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET are possible

2010-2011

  • Rapid Refresh

  • WRF-based ARW

  • NCEP’s GSI analysis (RR-version)

  • Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska

  • Experimental 3 km HRRR @ ESRL

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010

RUC-13 CONUS domain

Original CONUS domain

Experimental 3 km HRRR

11

11


Rapid refresh partial cycling

Rapid Refresh Partial Cycling

GFS

model

GFS

model

RR spin-up

cycle

RR spin-up

cycle

Observation

assimilation

00z 03z 06z 09z 12z 15z 18z 21z 00z

Observation

assimilation

RR Hourly cycling throughout the day

- Hourly cycling of land surface model fields

- 6 hour spin-up cycle for hydrometeors, surface fields


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Planned Operational

Meso- and Storm-scale Ensembles

2012-2013

  • NAM/Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE – NRRE

  • Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers of NMMB- & ARW-based configurations

  • Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours

  • High Res Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE – HRRRE

  • Nest HRRRE ensemble within NRRE

  • Opportunities to:

    • Provide improved probability guidance for hazardous wx

    • Use for Nextgen, Warn-on-Forecast, sensible wx


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Outline -

ConfigurationDA #mem

Current3km HRRRRUC-DFI )13km1

Spring 2010“RR-DFI

+HRRR-DFI (3km)

+ Conv Init (GOES)

~Fall 20103km-HRRR+1km subnests+15min full output

(hubs, RE site(s)?)

Spring 2011RR – add chem

2011?3kmHRRR+1km-nest

+chem

Late 2011NARRE-6 member (~13km)

(RR-EnKF in testing?

-OU-Xuguang/AMB


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Outline -

ConfigurationDA #mem

2012-testing3km HRRREnKF(?) / NARRE 1

NextHRRRE(6x CPU) 6

Add 1km HRRR (27x 3km HRRR)

(grow 1km nest inside 3km HRRR as CPU becomes

available, similar)

Our dream so far (but not yet WoF dream)

2015-18?1km HRRRE-chemHybrid EnKF/4dvar/DFI?

+ 300m fixed nests (for avx, RE) ~30

= “SuperHRRRE”

(15-30min update frequency)


Data assimilation ideas

Data assimilation ideas

  • Current – 3dvar, then 13kmDFI

  • Next – add 3km DFI

  • Next – incorporate DFI within 3dvar outer loop

  • [email protected], then 13km/3km DFI

  • - may be significant improvement for mesoscale environment

  • - initial work in FY10 under FAA (Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang w/ RR, RRgroup

  • Hybrid EnKF/3dvar @13km, then 13km/3km DFI

  • Hybrid @3km. (Does 3km DFI still add?)


Hrrr domain s

HRRR Domain(s)

September 2007

Initial HRRR domain over the northeastern United States “aviation corridor”

745 x 383 grid points, 200 processors

March 2009

Domain expanded to cover approximately eastern 2/3 of the US

1000 x 700 grid points, 568 processors

October 2009

Domain expanded to cover CONUS

1800 x 1060 grid points, 840 processors

RUC Domain

HRRR 2010

HRRR 2009

HRRR 2008

Hourly frequency maintained


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Crude radar refl QC in RUC (and RR) -

  • Start with NSSL QC

  • Comparison with GOES satellite (clear satellite results in radar clearing)

  • Water vapor moistening (reduction of subsaturation) applied

  • PW comparisons with GPS and RUC led to discovery of bird contamination

    • Complaints from Seth Gutman – “Dr. GPS-PW”

  • Reflectivity vs. temperature condition developed

    • 3-d Reflectivity < 28 dBz not used at night if Temp > 4°C


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Crude radar refl QC in RUC (and RR) -

  • Start with NSSL QC

  • Comparison with GOES satellite (clear satellite results in radar clearing)

  • Water vapor moistening (reduction of subsaturation) applied

  • PW comparisons with GPS and RUC led to discovery of bird contamination

    • Complaints from Seth Gutman – “Dr. GPS-PW”

QC working well in general, glitch in early Aug?

Typical season variation,

radar contribution to poorer fit but no regrets…


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Radar reflectivity assimilation

Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilation

initializes ongoing precipitation regions

-30 min -15 min Initial +15 min + 30 min

Backwards integration,

no physics

Forward integration,full physics with radar-based latent heating

Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation

RUC / RR HRRR model forecast

+ RUC/RR Convection suppression – ask us about it…


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Rapid Refresh (GSI + ARW) reflectivity assimilation example

Upper-level

Divergence

Low-level

Convergence

NSSL radar

reflectivity (dBZ)

K=17 U-comp. diff

(radar - norad)

K=4 U-comp. diff

(radar - norad)

14z 22 Oct 2008

Z = 3 km


Ruc rr and hrrr models1

RUC  RR

Radar Assim

Hourly updating model

RUC / RR and HRRR models

Data Assimilation cycle

HRRR

Observations


Ruc rr and hrrr models2

RUC  RR

Radar Assim

Hourly updating model

RUC / RR and HRRR models

Data Assimilation cycle

2nd pass

3-km radar

DFI analysis

HRRR

Observations


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

HRRR with radar DA only on 3-km domain

18z Radar

17 June 2009

RUC NO

HRRR RAD

hydrometeor

+ 0h

fcsts

RUC NO

HRRR NO

RUC NO

HRRR radar


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

HRRR with radar DA only on 3-km domain

19z Radar

17 June 2009

RUC NO

HRRR RAD

hydrometeor

+ 1h

fcsts

RUC NO

HRRR NO

RUC NO

HRRR radar


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

HRRR with radar DA only on 3-km domain

20z Radar

17 June 2009

RUC NO

HRRR RAD

hydrometeor

+ 2h

fcsts

RUC NO

HRRR NO

RUC NO

HRRR radar


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

HRRR with radar DA only on 3-km domain

21z Radar

17 June 2009

RUC NO

HRRR RAD

hydrometeor

20z Radar

+ 3h

fcsts

RUC NO

HRRR NO

RUC NO

HRRR radar


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR nesting ideas -

  • Possibilities

    • WoF (HRRR dx/3) - 1-way nest in small domain

    • Re-initialize WoF over multi-state subset of HRRR domain at HRRR-dx

      • 2-way nests to HRRR-dx/3 (and beyond)


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR nesting ideas -

  • Possibilities

    • WoF (HRRR dx/3) - 1-way nest in small domain

    • Re-initialize WoF over multi-state subset of HRRR domain at HRRR-dx

      • 2-way nests to HRRR-dx/3 (and beyond)

  • WoF domain

  • du jour

  • WoF dx

  • Outer = HRRRdx

  • Inner = HRRR/3

  • ……


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR/brain dump Outline -

  • Current HRRR status

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics

      • microphysics, PBL, radiation, LSM, LES at ≤500m resolution, chemistry


Ncar thompson microphysics

NCAR-Thompson Microphysics

RUC uses Dec 2003 version of scheme

Version in WRF v3.1 (mp_physics = 8) has many changes

- 2-moment (mixing ratio and number concentration) rain

helps better simulate difference in drop-size distribution

between rain resulting from melting snow and that from

collision-coalescence of cloud drops

- Greater ice supersaturation allowed (up to water saturation)

- Snow particles assumed to be more 2-d than spherical (affects deposition, collision and fall speed)

- Revised collection of snow and graupel by rain

- Extensive use of lookup tables

- Option for Gamma distribution for all precip hydrometeors

Subjective impressions for RR: Less graupel, more cloud ice and snow than in RUC version


Wrf chem and rr

WRF-Chem and RR

Primary WRF-Chem development and coordination occurring in GSD (Georg, Steven, Mariusz)

Next few years: introduce simple version of WRF-Chem into the RR (or even HRRR) as a first step towardintegrated operational weather--air quality forecasting

- Aerosol direct effect on radiation (e.g. solar direct-beam irradiance, surface temp forecasts)

- Improved warm-rain and ice nucleation in microphysics (aerosol indirect effects) for better cloud/precip forecasts (impact on ceiling, visibility, icing, surface temp)

- First step: RR-Chem put together by Steven and Tanya

* Once per day to 48h

* Aerosol cycling only


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

(HRRR-Chem Vertically Integrated Small Aerosol Concentration(relative units)1200 UTC 2 Sep 2009

Sources are primarily wildfires, biggest in San Gabriel Mtns, southern CA


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Alternative PBL schemes available in WRF-ARW:

YSU

MYNN

QNSE

  • 2.5 level closure; similar to MYJ in neutral-unstable conditions, but in stable conditions, QNSE scheme is activated.

  • Turbulent eddies and waves are treated as one entity in the stable regime.

  • Similar physics as MYJ, but enhanced treatment of stable nocturnal boundary layer.

  • First-order bulk scheme.

  • Includes a countergradient term to parameterize nonlocal mixing.

  • Explicit entrainment which is proportional to surface buoyancy fluxes.

  • Stronger vertical mixing may alleviate the bias found in the MYJ.

  • 2.5 and 3.0 level closure.

  • The master length scale is a function of 3 independent length scale (turbulent, surface layer, and stable layer).

  • Updated stability functions

  • Condensation Module.

  • Similar physics as MYJ, but tuned to LES simulations for more aggressive vertical mixing.


Pbl scheme testing

PBL Scheme Testing

  • New candidate PBL schemes need to show skill across RR domain and reduce biases compared with MYJ. Given recent interest in the RR (and HRRR) for wind energy applications, low-level jets and coastal jet cases are good tests for the new PBL schemes.

LLJ case(s) of 20070818-19

WRF-ARW Configuration (v3.1.1):

13.2 and 3.3 km grid spacing

51 vertical levels

RUC LSM

Grell-3 Cumulus Scheme

Thompson Microphysics Scheme

RRTM LW Radiation, Dudhia SW radiation

MYJ/MYNN/QNSE/YSU PBL

Initial Conditions:

GFS 6-hourly analyses

(Actual RR configuration covers all of North America)


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Vertical cross-section @ 09Z 20070819

  • QNSE produces the strongest and widest LLJ.

  • YSU has the weakest and most vertically diffuse LLJ.

  • Of the 3 TKE-based schemes, the MYNN has stronger vertical mixing, with the jet top ~100 m higher than MYJ or QNSE.

  • Strength of daytime vertical mixing is similar in rank, but has more variation (not shown).

MYJ

QNSE

Temperature

MYNN

YSU

Wind Speed


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

Convective probability forecasts from HRRR

time-lagged ensemble

(shown with deterministic fcst)

Reflectivity (dBZ)

Probability (%)

21z 16 July ‘09

Verification

15z + 6h HRRR and HCPF


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

3km HRRR verification- From NCAR report- 16 Dec 2009 “Model Performance and Sensitivity”(Mei Xu, David Dowell, Jenny Sun)

RUC grids provided much improved initial condition for HRRR than NAM or GFS grids, especially in 1-6h

Addition of radar assimilation to RUC convective environment adds further improvement for first ~6h

(representative example from individual case from late July 2009)


Ideas on wof nwp design relationship to hrrr e possible contributions from amb gsd

WoF/HRRR

Areas of AMB contribution-

  • HRRR / RR  HRRRE / NARRE  superHRRRE

  • Radar QC

    • hybcloud – satellite, bird, refl only

  • Data assimilation

    • DFI, EnKF, hybrid

    • (mesoscale DA in addition to stormscale)

  • Nesting

  • WRF (and other) model design issues

    • physics

      • microphysics, PBL, radiation, LSM, LES at ≤500m resolution, chemistry


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