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Capitol Politics: A look at 2017

Capitol Politics: A look at 2017. Presented by Jean Kinney Hurst Partner, Hurst Brooks Espinosa, LLC. A quick recap: the 2016 Legislative session. Governor Brown recently completed action on 789 bills that were sent to his desk at the end of the legislative session.

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Capitol Politics: A look at 2017

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  1. Capitol Politics: A look at 2017 Presented by Jean Kinney Hurst Partner, Hurst Brooks Espinosa, LLC

  2. A quick recap: the 2016 Legislative session Governor Brown recently completed action on 789 bills that were sent to his desk at the end of the legislative session. A couple of noteworthy items: • Extending the state’s emissions reduction target to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 (SB 32); companion measures to make reforms that improve oversight of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) (AB 197) and to direct more greenhouse gas reduction revenues to disadvantaged communities (AB 1613). • Redirecting a portion of Proposition 63 funds for permanent supportive housing for homeless mentally ill via the Pro Tem’s No Place Like Home proposal (AB 1618 and AB 1628). • Enacting a new state minimum wage law to $15/hour by 2022

  3. A quick recap: the 2016 Legislative session • Here’s what didn’t happen: • Governor Brown vetoed a number of measures that provided tax exemptions or breaks that would have cost about $300 million in 2017-18, including a sales and use tax exemption on diapers (AB 717) and a sales and use tax exemption on tampons and other feminine hygiene products (AB 1561) • Governor Brown also vetoed AB 2691, which would have authorized a monthly property tax payment • There was no action by the Legislature to address the state’s crumbling infrastructure and transportation systems. Some are hoping for a lame duck legislative session in November, but that looks increasingly unlikely. • Reforms of the CPUC and the California Coastal Commission failed to pass legislative muster. • After setting aside $400 million in the 2017-18 state budget for affordable housing purposes premised on the passage of reforms offered by the Administration, there was no movement on affordable housing.

  4. The 2016-17 State budget • State revenues – focusing on the “Big Three” – through August are just below budget estimates • August PIT revenues indicate that withholding, refunds and receipts are all higher than budgeted • Corporation tax revenues were down by $54M, mainly due to a significant underestimate of refunds • Sales and use tax revenues were down for the month by about $174M, for the first two months of the fiscal year by about $152M • Bottom line: revenues appear to be flat generally, signaling an even more cautious Governor Brown

  5. The November 2016 ballot In addition to the presidential election, Senate and Congress, California Assembly and Senate, and local races, voters will consider 17 state ballot measures. • Largest voter pamphlet in history • Expect lots of campaign cash to be spent to reach voters through the din, including new creative efforts (social media, text) • Many of the issues will have a considerable policy impact (fiscal, public health, public safety, primarily) • Quentin Taratino would be proud

  6. The November 2016 ballot (cont.) To make your lives a bit easier, Damian Carroll (a former legislative staffer, now a Democratic activist) wrote some haikus:

  7. If you don’t appreciate haiku… • Try the CalMatters guide to California ballot propositions 2016 • Visit calmatters.org (click on California Propositions 2016)

  8. 2017-18 Legislative session • At least 17 Assembly seats will turn over in the November election • At least 6 (likely 7) Senate seats will turn over • Potential for a Democratic supermajority in both houses • Key committee chair assignments are up for grabs (Senate Budget, Senate Public Safety, Assembly Rules, Assembly Agriculture, Assembly Environmental Safety and Toxic Materials, Assembly Human Services, Assembly Labor and Employment, Assembly Natural Resources, Assembly Utilities and Commerce) • With potentially 24 new members of the Legislature, they will be looking for work to do.

  9. I’m just a bill…

  10. Quick and Dirty Legislative process • Two-year legislative session (2017-18) • Policy committees Fiscal committees Floor votes • Deadlines and rules • 2/3 vote requirements: urgency measures, tax increase, modifications to ballot measures • 4/5 vote required in rare cases to modify a ballot measure (Political Reform Act) • Odd years: December 2016 – September 2017 • Even years: January 2018 – August 2018

  11. Legislative process, cont. • Timeline for sponsoring a bill: • What is the policy change? (October – December) • Begin working on language and talking to affected stakeholders • Identify potential support and opposition (November – February) • Approach authors with language (November – January) • Introduce measure (December – February deadline) • Early bird gets the worm • Develop fact sheet (December – February) • Start talking to committee staff (February/March)

  12. Legislative process, cont. • Moving a bill through the Legislature: • House of Origin • Await committee assignment(s) • Policy committee hearings – 1st house (March – April) • Fiscal committee hearings (April – May) • Floor votes (May/June) • 2nd House • Bill assigned to committee(s) • Policy committee hearings – 2nd house (June – July) • Fiscal committee hearings (July – August) • Floor votes (August/September) May require House of Origin to concur in 2nd House amendments – requires a floor vote in the House of Origin

  13. Legislative process, cont. • Governor has the final say: • Talk to his staff well before the bill arrives • Legislative deputy in the Governor’s Office • Key state departments • 12 days to sign or veto a bill • EXCEPT if sent during the end of session – will have 30 days from the end of session to act on all measures (late September – mid-October) • What if bill is vetoed? • Try again with modified language addressing Governor’s concerns • Go to the ballot

  14. Quick and dirty: ballot measure process • Check your bank account balance; hire lawyers and political consultants • Draft the proposed law (constitutional and/or statutory) • Submit initiative draft to the Attorney General for title and summary (bring check for $2000 with you) • Once title and summary is received, as well as fiscal note from the Legislative Analyst’s Office, you can print petitions and gather signatures from registered voters. Number of required valid signatures varied based on previous election turnout. • Signatures are turned into county elections offices where they are verified and counted. • Initiative is qualified or not from the next General Election ballot. • Campaign!

  15. What’s next? • Election Day! • Look for LAO’s Fiscal Outlook document, scheduled for release in November 2016 • Legislature convenes on December 5, 2016 • Legislature returns to work in Sacramento on January 3, 2017 • Governor releases his 2017-18 Proposed State Budget on January 10, 2017

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