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RA-IV Experts Group on Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP ) - CIMH Contributions. Kathy-Ann Caesar Chief Meteorologist CARIBBEAN INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY Husbands, St. James, Barbados, W.I. BARBADOS. www.cimh.edu.bb. Caribbean Meteorological Organization.

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  1. RA-IV Experts Group on Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) - CIMH Contributions Kathy-Ann Caesar Chief MeteorologistCARIBBEAN INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGYHusbands, St. James, Barbados, W.I. BARBADOS www.cimh.edu.bb

  2. Caribbean Meteorological Organization The CIMH, formerly the Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI), has been delivering un-interrupted service to the Caribbean for 49 years … Guaranteed long-term partner. Organs CMC • Caribbean Meteorological Council (CMC) • Caribbean Meteorological Organization – Headquarters Unit (CMO-HU) • Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology (CIMH) • Caribbean Meteorological Foundation (CMF) CMO HU CIMH CMF

  3. The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), established in 1967, is an Organ of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) and an Institution of the Caribbean Community. CIMH is also an Affiliate Institution of the University of the West Indies (UWI); For 49 years has been the primary training and education facility in the Caribbean; CIMH is also in the involvement in collative projects that would benefit the local and regional community; 16 Caribbean States that comprise the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) fund the operation of CIMH.

  4. WMO Regional Training Centre - Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel • Operate as a Centre for Researchin meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences • Regional Climate Data Centre - Data collection, storage, & dissemination • WMO Regional Instrument Centre – Develop, install, maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments • Regional Centre of Excellence for Training in Satellite Meteorology • WMO Regional Climate Centre • Caribbean Centre for Climate and Environmental Simulations • WMOCentre for Sand and Dust Storm Warning Alerting and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) for Pan American Region • Advisor to CMO Member States CIMH 2015

  5. CIMH 2016

  6. CIMH’s Potential Role and Contributions - Training CIMH 2016

  7. Proposed Competency Standards in Severe Weather • WMO is already working on Competency Standards beyond those in Aeronautical Meteorology • Severe Weather Forecasting can be seen as a subset and therefore carry similar competencies • A Severe Weather Forecaster, For the area and airspace of responsibility, Should1, in taking into account conditions A to C, have successfully completed the BIP-M2 and should3 be able to: • Analyse and monitor continuously the weather situation; • Forecast the onset of meteorological phenomena and parameters that leads to severe weather; • Warn of hazardous phenomena associated with severe; • Ensure the quality of meteorological information and services; and • Communicate meteorological information to internal and external users CIMH 2016

  8. Satellite Meteorology Training RAMSDIS • The RAMM Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System (RAMSDIS) developed by the Regional And Mesoscale Meteorological (RAMM) team at CIRA. • Satellite imagery centered over Barbados but also serves the Eastern Caribbean; • 4 km satellite imagery has and can serve as a excellent monitoring tool for severe weather • The effort to introduce GNC Receiving System to the region supported by NOAA continues. • GNC will supports access to some satellite operational data and imagery; • It will allow the transfer of GOES – R data • The onset of GOES R – (now GOES-16) imagery introduces high resolution data as an invaluable tool to severe weather forecasting.. GEONETCast CIMH 2016

  9. WRF Model Outputs Use of 4 km Mesoscale NWP models forecast Dominica • http://www.cimh.edu.bb/rffp/00Z/00Z.html • Rainfall Prediction Product project uses the 4 km WRF NWP Mesoscale model data, to produce • 48 hour aggregated accumulation and Disaggregated hourly rainfall accumulation for the model run; CIMH 2016

  10. Operational Model Setup • WRF Version 3.4.1 • ARW-core • Two runs with different Microphysics options • Run1 – WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme • Run3 – New Thompson et al. scheme • Grell-Freitas Cumulus scheme on domain 1 only • RRTMG for both longwave and shortwave radiation • Simulations initialized from GFS 0.5° X 0.5° forecast • Model resolution 12 km (domain 1) and 4 km (domain 2) • Initialized daily at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z (Run1) and 00Z and 12Z (Run3) • 48-hr forecast • 96-hr runs as well as an Atlantic domain developed during the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season CIMH 2016

  11. Results for the WRF ARW Model CIMH 2016

  12. THANK YOU CIMH 2016

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