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Using Standardized Anomalies to Identify Significant Heavy Rain Events

Using Standardized Anomalies to Identify Significant Heavy Rain Events. Jason Krekeler And Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA. Motivation. Record rainfall with remnants of TS Lee Look at key features of this event Pattern and persistence of the pattern

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Using Standardized Anomalies to Identify Significant Heavy Rain Events

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  1. Using Standardized Anomalies to Identify Significant Heavy Rain Events Jason Krekeler And Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA

  2. Motivation • Record rainfall with remnants of TS Lee • Look at key features of this event • Pattern and persistence of the pattern • Pattern similar 9/30 – 10/1 2010 event and others • Compare these events

  3. Bloomsburg PA

  4. City Island in Harrisburg

  5. Swatara Creek in Hersey

  6. Hersheypark, Comet Hollow

  7. Rainfall from remnants of TS Lee

  8. Rainfall totals from 9/29-10/2 2010

  9. Lee 500 hPa pattern

  10. Surface

  11. Precipitable water

  12. Sep 29-Oct 2 500 hPa Pattern

  13. Surface pattern

  14. Precipitable water

  15. How do these events compare? • Similarities • Deep trough in eastern US • Anticyclone in North Atlantic • Surge of tropical moisture along frontal boundary • Differences • Deepening surface low vs cut off upper level low • T bone vs north/south bands • duration

  16. Persistance • Both events featured a 24 hour period of intense rainfall • Deep southerly flow • High precipitable water • Jet entrance regions • Downstream blocking ridge

  17. Heaviest 24 hour periodSep 30th 2010

  18. Heaviest 24 hour periodSep 7th 2011

  19. Sep 30 2010

  20. TC Lee remnants and Katia

  21. Sep 7 2011

  22. The resulting Rainfall Patterns

  23. Comparison • Similar rainfall pattern- north/south bands • Sep 7, 2011- • Higher rainfall totals • Stronger frontal boundary • More focused band of high pw • Sep 30,2010 • broader area of heavy rain • Stronger southerly flow • Ridge further off the coast

  24. PW Plume Comparisions

  25. Comparison with LLJ

  26. Conclusions • Large scale patterns similar but differences in the details • Persistence of the pattern • Similar pattern of rainfall but differences in magnitude and scale • If TC Katia was not there…? • Would the LLJ been broader/stronger with broader area of high PW and heavy rain

  27. Bloomsburg PA

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